Grade 3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes

4:02 pm - Race 9
Grade 3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes - 5f-TURF - $150K

Top Contenders

A WIDE-open affair looks to be to "feature" not one, but three vulnerable favorites in the program.  My top choice is the six-year-old mare 8-Good Deed (8/1) - appropriate enough on Oaks Friday where we feature the fillies & mares!  She comes off a horrendous trip in a Gulfstream stakes event and if able to sit just off the contested pace she'll get the first jump on the tiring speedsters.  If 10-Power Alert (15/1) is anything close to the DRF morning line odds AND the course is firm he might be my play here.  His first two NA starts were sensational, and I'd be willing to forgive the "good" ground fourth as the favorite last out.  3-Heitai (5/2) is exceptionally quick, but steps up to a whole new level today.  The inside draw of that one compromises last out Grade 3 winner 11-Something Extra (5/1).  And 12-Undrafted (3/1) is always close, but hasn't won since 2013.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

1 - Berlino de Tigre (50/1) - Sometimes you have to wonder, seriously, what are the connections thinking.  In this one's last six races he was 8th of 10, 7th of 7, 10th of 11, 8th of 9, 9th of 10, and 11th of 12 beaten a combined sixty-four lengths.  The most obvious NO of the day.

2 - Channel Marker (30/1) - So which way do you lean......do you like the fact he was second, beaten a half length with a big 100 Beyer last out; or do you dismiss that effort since he was 45/1 and has not won since October 2013?

3 - Heitai (5/2) - He's a perfect 4-for-4 in turf sprints and is a six-time stakes winner.  But he only knows one way to run, burst to the front and out run them to the wire.  The last time he tried a graded event he was caught by not one, but four others.  The one to beat, but he appears vulnerable to me.

4 - Jasizzle (50/1) - One turf try in the last year and it was in a lowly $75K listed event where he was a badly beaten eighth.......uh, no.

5 - Positive Side (30/1) - Well, you could give him a chance based on his good third in this very race last year.  BUT....he was running double digits faster on the Beyer scale then compared to his most recent efforts.

6 - Forest Elf (20/1) - He has won two of his last three, all turf sprints.  But, three back he was in against "beaten" $30K claimers (that's a restricted race for horses who have not won in months).  Outclassed here.

7 - Zee Bros (20/1) - You could do far worse for longshots.....he was a well beaten sixth last time out in a Grade 3 that sees all three of the top finishers in here today.  But the fact he left the gate at only 7/2 says somebody thought he was a legitimate runner.  His previous turf sprint earned a big 98 in a blow-out win, but that was in October.  Still, seeing Hall of Fame rider "Money Man" Mike Smith take the mount is intriguing.

8 - Good Deed (6/1) - She - that's right, a girl takes on the boys here - dominated her first two sprint efforts over the Fair Grounds turf course to kick off 2015. Last time out she was one of my most confident plays on the undercard of Fountain of Youth Day at Gulfstream.  But she broke behind the field and had not one but two different times where she was cut off and came to a screeching halt, but STILL was flying late to rally from 10th to be second beaten less than a length.  Sure to get a price today and I'll be surprised if she's not much closer to the pace today.

9 - Buster Rose (7/2)- He's won two in a row and five of his last six, so who can blame the connections for giving it a shot?  But those are four allowance wins and a restricted stakes race.  A fast pace, a likely event, sets him up to show his best today.

10 - Power Alert (15/1) - He came to North America from "Down Under" where he was a solid turf sprinter in Australian Handicap races and immediately made an impact with a win over a money-added allowance field at Gulfstream and then in a listed stakes.  Off of those back-to-back wins he was the tepid 5/2 favorite in the Grade 3 Shakertown last out at Keeneland.  But he was fourth, beaten by THREE of today's rivals.  IF you are willing to draw a line through that over a course labeled "good" and today's is sure to be "firm" then the 15/1 DRF odds are a huge overlay.

11 - Something Extra (5/1) - He went wire-to-wire in the previously mentioned Shakertown at odds of 8/1.  Well, he won't have an easy task repeating that kind of run from the outside post, but even more of a problem is that speedster Heitai is inside and he will NOT be denied the early lead.  A "play-against" for me.

12 - Undrafted (3/1) - The good news here is that he's a stone-cold closer so the far outside post won't hurt his chances much. BUT, since 2013 he shows one win as he always comes a little too late with not quite enough.  I might be willing to overlook that, but his best two efforts were in a six furlong sprint and going a mile - I think the five furlong distance today is too short.  He's an overbet vulnerable favorite in my book.