Gade 3 Pat Day Mile Stakes

12:38 pm - Race 5
Grade 3 Pat Day Mile Stakes (3yo) - 8 Furlongs - $200K

 

Top Contenders

Todd Pletcher's unbeaten colt, 6-Competitive Edge (6/5) is an immense talent and is a legitimate favorite here.  The only question I have is the colt he beat last out at Gulfstream, who was highly regarded did not run to his big numbers when a narrow winner in a listed stakes (only to be DQ'd).  The most likely to upset the favorite is Bob Baffert's duo of ship-in colts; of the two I like 2-Gimme Da Lute (7/2) best.  His Beyer last out is the best in the field and a repeat of that would make the favorite show his very best.

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1 - Where's The Moon (15/1) - After winning his maiden at his native Sunland Park he took the Mine That Bird Derby with authority.  Then he faced the very good Firing Line - who was exiting a second to Derby second choice Dortmund.  Firing Line was MUCH the best that day in the Sunland Derby, but 'Moon was second best of the rest of the field.  Considering that Firing Line is considered live in the Kentucky Derby you have to at least consider this one here.

2 - Gimme Da Lute (7/2) - A Bob Baffert entrant, and that alone makes you pay attention.  He was a close second in his debut, and the winner came right back to score.  Then he improved his speed figure when breaking his maiden second out at 3/5 odds; and then jumped to a giant 100 Beyer when taking the Echo Eddie Stakes, a Santa Anita sprint.  He was five clear of the second place horse who came right back to win.  Stretches out to a one-turn mile here which should be well within his scope.  Dangerous.

3 - The Truth Or Else (15/1) - He started his career with three misses on the turf, all losses.  But when put on the main track he scored immediately.  Since then he's seen nothing but graded stakes - third in two as a juvenile, then just missed in the Southwest at Oaklawn.  Completely outrun by Derby favorite American Pharoah in his last two he should enjoy the huge drop in class.

4 - Hillbilly Royalty (8/1) - This guy was my top pick in the Northern Spur at this distance on the Arkansas Derby undercard and was loose on the lead in mid-stretch before caving in behind a well-meant MAIDEN from the Baffert barn.  Second best that day, I think he's over his head here.

5 - Lord Nelson (3/1) - After breaking his maiden at first asking at Del Mar he's seen a steady diet of stakes, which includes a win in the Grade 2 San Vicente over BC Juvenile champion Texas Red (who's since been injured).  The second Baffert in here, and he's a very logical choice IF he can get the distance which is a legitimate question.

6 - Competitive Edge (6/5) - The $750K son of Derby champion Super Saver is perfect in three starts.  He debuted with a huge win at Saratoga when he was no secret for Todd Pletcher as he was a short 4/5 that day.  Right back in the Grade 1 Hopeful where he romped by daylight again at 3/5 odds.  He had issues getting back to the race before he romped in a Gulfstream listed stakes a month ago.  All three figures he's earned have been in the 90's.  He will take a lot of beating today.

7 - Pain and Misery (20/1) - While he was third behind Where's The Moon in the Sunland Derby, his Beyers are way slower than the main win contenders.

8 - Peace and War (20/1) - This filly was on the AE list for the $1 Million Kentucky Oaks, but ends up here against the colts.  Interesting in that she came over from Europe as a 2yo and immediately shook up the Americans by winning the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland.  But she was off from that October win until a try in the Grade 1 Ashland last month....she was distanced when dead last beaten more than fifteen lengths.  Would be a major upset.