Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes

2:59 pm - Race 8
Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Stakes - 8f-TURF - $300K

Top Contenders

In what appears to be a wide-open affair, I REALLY like the chances of European import, 11-Water Hole (12/1) today.  If her odds are double-digits as they are in the program she could be the "day-maker" for me here.  Euros nearly always outrun their North American friends and she's got top human connections in Chad Brown and Gary Stevens.  BOMBS AWAY!  The likely favorites, 4-Lady Lara (7/2), 5-Coffe Clique (5/1), and 8-Sandiva (7/2) would all be no surprise....particularly Lady Lara with her European roots.  But at fairly short prices, I'll shoot for the big score here!

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1 - Personal Diary (8/1) - She upset the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last summer at 9/1 odds going nine furlongs and has run credibly this season with a third and two fourth place finishes, all in graded efforts.  Thinking the mile distance today is too short for her best.

2 - Grand Elmendort (30/1) - She's never been in stakes races and BOTH of her wins came in turf races that were rained off the grass and run on the dirt.  Big time, NO.

3 - Tepin (15/1) - Soundly beaten, twice, by Personal Diary.  Maybe you consider her based on the close second at this distance in the Grade 2 San Vicente....but note the winner of that race, who stole it on the front end, has failed to last in several lesser events since.

4 - Lady Lara (7/2) - She ran thirteen times with moderate success in Europe, but since coming to North America she's stepped up her game with a win in the $100K Pebbles first off the plane; then a troubled second over this course in the Grade 2 Ms. Revere; and last out she caught today's rival Sandiva in the Grade 2 Honey Fox on Florida Derby Day.  Would not be a surprise for all-time training leader at Churchill Bill Mott.

5 - Coffee Clique (5/1) - She brought a three-race win streak into the aforementioned Grade 2 Honey Fox, but was coming off a LONG layoff that day.  Third as the favorite I'd expect some improvement today, but never was a believer in her ability despite the win streak.

6 - I'm Already Sexy (15/1) - She should be the speed of the race, but the fact she was loose on the lead HERE as the 8/5 favorite in the Grade 3 Cardinal.  Sets the table for a strong finisher I think.

7 - Solid Appeal (20/1) - He's a two-time winner in Grade 2 coming from off the pace and he's a big price.  Could surprise here.

8 - Sandiva (7/2) - She came to hand nicely at Gulfstream, winning two stakes.  She moved comfortably to the lead in the Grade 2 Honey Fox and seemed home free in mid-stretch, but was caught late by Lady Lara.  Could rebound today, but have the sense that she's a Gulfstream "Horse-for-the-Course."

9 - Strike Charmer (12/1) - She upset the Grade 3 Cardinal last fall at 12/1 but has been a big disappointment since, including a third at 4/5 in allowance company last time out.

10 - Maid On A Mission (30/1) - She has two wins locally, but both in allowance company.  The 30/1 odds are probably too short to consider her chances.

11 - Water Hole (12/1) - Handicappers "know," European turf runners are nearly always clearly superior to their North American counterparts.  And often they pay a generous price because no one knows what kind of form they have.  Trainer Chad Brown is a 30% winner with first-time North American runners and 32% with horses making their first start under his care.  This filly is 3/2-0-1 at the mile distance and Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens is up today.  I like her chances here at a big price.

12 - Kitty Wine (15/1) - Despite the bullet works for this, the well-beaten fifth in the Honey Fox at odds of better than 40/1 spell out her lack of a legitimate chance today.

13 - Kiss Moon (20/1) - Post 13, off since November, and her best races have come in listed stakes....not for me.