Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes

3:43 pm - Race 9
Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes - 7 furlongs - $500K

Top Contenders

It's all about the return of Breeders' Cup Classic winner 2-Bayern (1/1) in this spot.  I wouldn't be stunned if he hits a wall at the top of the stretch, but I would be very surprised.  He looks to have been carefully pointed for this spot and the way Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert spots sprinters under the shadow of the Twin Spires you have to believe he's got this one on his toes for a huge effort today.  You won't make a lot of money, but I think he's a decisive winner over a over-matched field today.

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1 - Cee Zee (15/1) - I have mixed feelings on this guy, so I would have to consider him if he stays anywhere near those program odds.  On the upside he was a good second in the Grade 3 Phoenix behind Work All Week who finished 2014 unbeaten in dirt sprints topped off by an upset of the Breeders' Cup Sprint.  But Cee Zee's only win dating back to last July came in the Grade 3 Gulfstream Sprint over a VERY suspect field.  Maybe he hits the board.

2 - Bayern (1/1) - The question for this race is very simple - do you think Bayern runs his race or not.  If he runs his race it's all over except who completes the exacta.  If he falters today then you are going to get a big number regardless of who you land on.  In handicapping the race, if you are a real fan of thoroughbred racing, you HAVE to dismiss your feelings that he stole the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall when he obviously caused interference at the start and would have disqualified in any other race on the planet, except in the ultimate race of the year.  He's a perfect 2-for-2 at this unique sprint distance and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert wins over 2/3 of the time when he ships in a sprinter to Churchill Downs from his home base in So Cal.  Concerned about Bayern being ready to fire off the layoff?  Don't be, he's got not one, not two, but THREE smoking bullet works including a sensational six furlong move in 1:10.4 last Saturday.  To put that into perspective, that time would win a lot of graded stakes races, and he was only working out!  He looks really, REALLY hard to beat in this spot.

3 - Brewing (20/1) - Beaten in two allowance races in his last three starts (and in a listed stakes in between) you have to wonder why he's here.  Never in a million years.

4 - Private Zone (2/1) - He's proven on the big stage and he's got four straight triple digit speed figures.  But (a) he's been moved to a barn that's inexperienced with the big stage; (b) comes off a gut-wrenching loss last time out, so I expect a bounce effort today; and (c) he's not run at this unique distance since 2012!  He'll take a lot of money and would be the one to beat if not for Bayern's presence.....but I'd be against him even if Bayern was not in the race.

5 - Pants On Fire (5/1) - On Florida Derby Day I thought he had a real chance to upset the field at a generous price.  But I went against him in favor of what appeared to be a lone speed runner.  He made me pay at 3/1.  He's now a perfect 2-for-2 at the distance and his sharp third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile stamps him a threat.  I think he's the key horse to play under Bayern in the exacta and trifecta gimmick bets.

6 - Gentlemen's Bet (10/1) - He showed a return to form with his sensational 108 Beyer win two back in the $100K Hot Springs Stakes, but was a HUGE disappointment at 4/5 in the Grade 3 Count Fleet last time out.  Not the kind of effort I'd want to see leading into a Grade 1 event against the defending BC champion.

7 - Nate's Mineshaft (20/1) - Why?  Why would you run here if you owned/trained this one?  He's never won at the distance and in the only two graded tries on his resume he was beaten a combined 52 plus lengths.  No, Never.