Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes

2:01 pm - Race 7
Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes - 8 1/2 Furlongs - $300K

Top Contenders

From over 125 starts this group of fillies & mares have made ten Grade 1 appearances and have collectively been shut out - not the strongest editions of the La Troienne to say the least.  But the good news is that it makes for a wide-open event.  Three appear to stand out, but all with issues to overcome, so you have three paths to choose from:  (1) pass the race, the safest play; (2) go against all four logical win candidates for the big score; or (3) see something that tells you that one of the contenders is sitting on a big effort.  While passing the race is the safest way to go, I opt for the latter as I see nothing that indicates a big upset win.  2-My Miss Sophia (6/1) clearly has the most potential.  Hard to tell what went wrong late last spring, and maybe it was an indication that she's gone sour, permanently.  But the fact that the leading trainer of all time at Churchill Downs, Bill Mott, brings her back to the races is a big positive sign; the fact that he does NOT bring her back in a listed event, but in a Grade 1 event speaks volumes to his confidence level; the fact she has a string of bullet works tells me she's as ready to fire as she'll ever be; and the fact that the best jockey in North America (Javier Castellano) takes the mount seals the deal.  With that said, 4-Sheer Drama (4/1) is the one in the best current form, exiting a career best effort with an authoritative win at the distance.  8-Molly Morgan (9/2) would be no surprise as she LOVES this track and has consistently demonstrated that she runs her best races here.  Her second at 12/1 in this race last year gives you confidence that she can run big when not given a big chance.  And finally, 7-Gold Medal Dancer (7/2) earns respect off her victory over Untapable.  Interesting that some of her best efforts were over off tracks, so rain would enhance her chances.

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1 - Tiz Windy (8/1) - The good news is that she's won twice here, and that she parlayed an allowance win over the course last September into her first graded stakes win in the Indiana Oaks in October.  But three subsequent graded tries saw her finish out of the money.  Never been in Grade 1 company before.

2 - My Miss Sophia (6/1) - She kicked off her sophomore season last winter with a second to a good filly, then graduated with authority and won the Grade 2 Gazelle.  Then she came to Louisville where she was a best-of-the-rest second behind champion Untapable in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  Her future seemed bright but then came a huge flop in the Grade 1 Acorn as the 4/5 favorite.  She was shipped to Monmouth for a confidence builder in a listed stakes, only to disappoint again at odds of 1/9.  That was it for the year.  She comes in off a long layoff, but with a series of sensational works for Bill Mott....and she gets top national rider Javier Castellano.  Can she recapture her 3yo form?

3 - Sweet Whiskey (10/1) - This Pletcher-trained filly won the Grade 3 Old Hat at Gulfstream in January 2014 and has yet to get her photo taken since.  Primarily a sprinter she seems out of her element here.  It is noteworthy that she outfinished My Miss Sophia in the one-turn mile Acorn last spring.  Would appear up against it.

4 - America (15/1) - Her connections decide to take a shot as she's never been better.  After one win from her first ten starts she has turned things around with three consecutive victories - two in allowance company and the most recent in a $100K listed stakes.  The last two have resulted in career best figures.  But she'll need to improve multiple lengths to beat the primary win contenders here.

5 - Sheer Drama (4/1) - After a lack-luster start to her career she was switched to a new trainer last spring.  Since moving into the David Fawkes barn she has responded with five sharp efforts from six tries, and you can forgive the one bad effort as it as over a poly surface she probably disliked.  Her most recent was a career best effort in the Grade 3 Royal Delta at Gulfstream where she earned a big 99 Beyer.  Her regular rider, Joe Bravo, has Hall of Fame credentials but has struggled mightily since the beginning of Gulfstream and shows only seven wins from over 150 mounts.  I'm leaning against here.

6 - Interest Free (20/1) - Her last win was in a six furlong sprint, in allowance company, over a sloppy track, at Indiana Downs.  It's a long way from that kind of race to a Grade 1, two turn event at Churchill Downs......no.

7 - Gold Medal Dancer (7/2) - Three very sharp efforts at Oaklawn this spring say she's a legitimate contender with the highlight effort being an upset of champion Untapable in the Grade 3 Azeri.  She saw the queen rebound to beat her with authority last out in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom, but following the race the connections were less than satisfied with the ride she was given.  I look for her to be more forwardly placed today and give her a solid chance in a wide-open event.

8 - Molly Morgan (9/2) - Here are the numbers you need to know:  At tracks OTHER THAN Churchill Downs her record is 15/2-2-6 with earnings of $190K and change; at Churchill Downs her resume reads 13/5-3-2 and with earnings of over $470K - an obvious Horse-for-the-Course!  She was a solid second in this spot last year and considering her affinity to the surface you have to give her a big chance.

9 - Frivolous (6/1) - After chasing Molly Morgan twice with no success at all, she turned the tables at a huge 19/1 in the Grade 2 Falls City Handicap HERE last fall.  She finished dead last off the layoff as the 6/5 favorite in allowance company.  She would surprise me with a win here.