Grade 1 Woodfood Reserve Turf Stakes

4:44 pm - Race 10
Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic - 9f-TURF - $500K

Top Contenders

Although I have to admit I was skeptical about the announcement that top turf mare 8-Stephanie's Kitten (9/2) would make her next start here, against the boys, after her 2015 debut win at Tampa, it now appears to me to be a very wise decision.  There are no superstars to fear in this Grade1 event, and all the program favorites who are likely to beat her have questions to answer.  Toss in that she's been ambitiously pointed for this AND that she absolutely adores running under the Twin Spires (a perfect 3-for-3 including her career best effort) and I think you've got the perfect storm for her to upset the boys.  9-Seek Again (4/1) would win if able to reproduce his effort from last year's edition when 2nd by a head to Wise Dan, but his last two are ugly efforts.  7-Jack Milton (5/1) may be well worth the nice price considering he exits a Grade 1 win and goes for Todd Pletcher & Javier Castellano.

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1 - Optimizer (12/1) - He has the ability to jump up when you least expect it with a huge effort, but the fact he's not posed in the winner's circle since 2013 is a big concern.

2 - Sky Captain (15/1) - He's lost three straight allowance tests and is winless over the turf.  Why would you enter him in a Grade 1 turf race?  NO.

3 - Umgiyo (30/1) - Top international trainer Michael deKock brings this guy from Dubai for his first North American try, so the international background is interesting.  But without a win since 2013 he's probably a bad bet at even the 30/1 program odds.

4 - Scrumpdiliecious (50/1) - Owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey are never worried about taking a chance and this one was claimed for a non-winners of two LIFETIME last September.  Since then he's hit the board in allowance company and has a single win.  Not here.

5 - Finnegan's Wake (9/2) - He had a three race win streak, all in marathon Grade 2 events out west, snapped last time out when second best as the 3/5 favorite.  At least you will get a better price today, but appears to be over the top.

6 - Coalport (8/1) - After easily wiring the Grade 3 John Connolly two back he was taken back off the pace last time out only to see that front runner coast wire-to-wire....and he's in the field today to try to extend his winning streak.  If I were jockey Miguel Mena, or trainer Michael Maker, or owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey I'd be sending this one from his inside post and try to steal it.

7 - Jack Milton (5/1) - He was a top selection for me on the undercard on Fountain Of Youth day at Gulfstream but had a terrible trip.  I passed on his chances in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark last time out and he scored at a big $11 payoff.  He's a legitimate win contender on his current form and he's run well against the top ones in here.....but it would appear he's best at one mile, not at this mile and an eighth trip.

8 - Stephanie's Kitten (9/2) - She is one of the best turf fillies & mares in training so it was very curious to me that after winning her 2015 debut in Tampa's Grade 3 Hillsborough that it was announced her next start would be to try the boys here.  But in a field without a superstar you have to like these facts:  (a) she is a multiple Grade 1 winner, (b) her speed figures match up competitively, and most importantly (c) she LOVES this course with a perfect 3-for-3 local record.  She has top trainer Chad Brown and top jockey John Velazquez and he comes off a bullet work most recently.  I give her a big chance today.

9 - Seek Again (4/1) - He'll get a lot of attention in the wagering based on his near-miss in this race when second beaten a head by two-time Horse-of-the-Year Wise Dan.  But since that effort he's only 1-for-4, a neck win at that, AND he's been soundly beaten in his last two.  He's a play against for me.

10 - Chocolate Ride (12/1) - He's won three in a row, without getting much respect, while moving from nw1x allowance, into a Grade 3, and most recently into a Grade 3.  He'll be dismissed again and if he wins it will pay double digits.  Speed is always dangerous, but thinking he'll cave late.

11 - Slumber (8/1) - He was my top pick to run down the speed in the Grade 2 Mervin Muniz on Louisiana Derby Day in spite of the fact he's not won since August 2013.  He made a huge rally on the turn and looked to have dead aim on Chocolate Ride, but could not get by, again.  He's a legitimate win contender again, but after running second in three of his last four and losing four of his last five by less than a length I wonder if he WANTS to win.

12 - Grand Arch (8/1) - He's run consistently well in graded company, without winning.  But his wins always seem to be against lesser.  I don't think he's got a real chance today.