Grade 1 Humana Distaff Stakes

2:08 - Race 7
Grade 1 Humana Distaff Stakes - 7 Furlongs - $300K

Top Contenders
There are two Grade 1 winners in here, who've won at this distance in that elite company and both have every right to win the race based on nearly every handicapping angle.  But I'm going with a long shot in here who will most likely be overlooked, and that is Todd Pletcher's  7-Sweet Whiskey (6/1).  She's not won a race since January 2014, but here's the thing.  This field of eight doesn't have a single front-runner in the field.  The ONLY one in here who has EVER gone to the front is Sweet Whiskey.  At first glance you could label her as a faint-hearted frontrunner who will set the table for the two likely favorites, but I would argue that every time she's given way it was after she dueled through the early fractions.  The ONLY time she was loose on the lead she romped home an easy winner.  Right to the front......WHERE'S THE WIRE!  If Sweet Whiskey can't hang on then the final 16th of the long Churchill stretch should come down to who gets the best trip between 1-Sweet Reason (5/1) and Breeders' Cup champion 8-Judy the Beauty (6/5).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

1 - Sweet Reason (5/1) - Her career has been often interrupted with physical issues, but if you are willing to believe she can beat older rivals in her first try outside of the sophomore ranks she's a legitimate win candidate.  You have to love the fact she is a THREE-TIME Grade 1 winner, two of those at today's unique seven furlong distance (the other at a one-turn mile which is very similar in configuration).  AND the fact that she has won off the layoff not once, not twice, not three times, but FOUR different times gives you confidence to bet with enthusiasm.  She comes from well off the pace so she'll need a good pace set-up and racing luck.  Dangerous with a bullet work just this past Tuesday.

2 - Thank You Marylou (10/1) - In the last fourteen months she has but one win.....BUT, it was at today's seven furlongs, in a graded stakes, HERE at Churchill Downs.  Uh oh.  But, she has been defeated by the top two fillies already.  Still, would not be a surprise.

3 - Dame Dorthy (9/2) - Top North American trainer Todd Pletcher has done a superb job in managing her career as she's built a 7/5-1-1 resume.  Of the seven starts five have come at a route distance, and they have been solid efforts.  But the only two times she went one turn, both at today's seven furlong distance, SHE WON!  She was second in a Santa Anita Grade 1 event to the hottest mare out west last time out.  The turn back should work in her favor today.  Note that both seven furlong wins came from off the shelf....like today.  Castellano rides for Pletcher, always dangerous together.

4 - Clearly Confused (8/1) - While she was a good third (at nearly 30/1) in the Grade 1 Madison last time out I am very concerned that last April she was running for a $25K claiming tag.  Over her head here.

5 - You Bought Her (12/1) - After winning a Tampa allowance in January she's been 37/1, 16/1, and 20/1 in her last three.  While odds don't tell the whole story, I think it is significant that she was big odds in those......but wait a tic, she was second at 37/1; won at 16/1; and was second beaten a neck at 20/1!  Maybe.......

6 - Moonlit Stroll (20/1) - She won her debut, here, in an off-the-turf sprint on the main track and has since run all three career starts on the grass.  Interesting to return to the main track in a Grade 1.

7 - Sweet Whiskey (6/1) - She won the Grade 3 Old Hat in January 2014, but has failed to score since.  She's been second or third in five of her subsequent eight, but don't like the fact she can't seem to find the winner's circle.  She was entered in yesterday's Grade 1 La Toienne at nine furlongs - this seems a more suitable distance, but still unlikely.

8 - Judy The Beauty (6/5) - The defending Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint champion (at this distance) makes her first start since that November championship score.  But take note.....in March 2014 she came off a long layoff to win the Grade 3 Las Flores; last August she came off a long layoff to win the Grade 3 Rancho Bernando; and in the Breeders' Cup she was coming off a long layoff.  Hmmmm.  She's the class of the field, but at such a short price?