Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

6:34 pm - Race 11
Grade 1 Kentucky Derby (3yo) - 10 Furlongs - $2 Million

Top Contenders

18-American Pharoah (5/2) is the star attraction in what is probably the strongest collection of three-year-old colts to Run for the Roses in many years.  The fact that the four big prep races for the Derby were ALL won by short-priced favorites who stamped their ticket here speaks to the quality of the field.  And in any other year - in my opinion - any one of three of today's "other" horses would be deserving short-priced favorites for the Derby crown.  But this three-time Grade 1 winner is truly something special.  I can honestly say that in my many years at the races I have only had three "Oh My" reactions to a horse.  The first was when three-time Breeders' Cup Mile Champion accelerated through the stretch to win her third Grade 1 Mile while we were at Churchill Downs; the second was when Wise Dan set a new course record winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile two year ago WITHOUT BEING ASKED to run;  and the third came three weeks ago in Hot Springs, Arkansas when American Pharoah took my breath away as he devastated the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby field without ever being asked for his best.  He's the best horse, in fact I'd go as far as to say he's a clear-cut better horse than the other win contenders; he's worked sensationally locally; and he's drawn a good post position.  I see him tracking the pace to the far turn and then I'll be surprised if he not only wins, but if he doesn't win in another daylight, headline-making, take-your-breath-away fashion.  Maybe, just maybe we are going to see the long awaited Triple Crown winner in 2015.  He's talented enough for sure.  The BET of the WEEKEND.

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1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho (50/1) - After starting off his career with three straight wins, including a big win over two of his rivals today in the $1 Million Delta Jackpot, he's been soundly beaten in his preps for this at age three.  Draws the dreaded 1 hole and has to be considered a rank outsider that might be an early pace factor at best.

2 - Carpe Diem (8/1) - This pricey colt for Todd Pletcher and WinStar Farm has only one loss on his resume, a good second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  In any other year he'd probably be the Derby favorite, but he'll be no better than third choice today and you have to be concerned about the terrible inside post.  He'll probably have to be pushed early to escape the crush of horses in the run to the first turn which will compromise his late kick.  Most disconcerting to me was in spite of winning by daylight in the prep for this, the Grade 1 Bluegrass as the prohibitive favorite he had to work hard through the lane to put away that mediocre group......and didn't earn a very big number.  He's got a lot of graded stakes wins in his future, but one is not here today I'm afraid.  Would be no surprise if he runs to his press clippings, but I am against here.

3 - Materiality (12/1) - Heading into the Florida Derby he drew all kinds of comparisons to last year's Florida Derby winner who had gone 2-for-2 at Gulfstream before jumping into that Grade 1 feature.  But I wasn't buying it and went against him.  He made me pay with a huge 110 Beyer figure.  He probably has room for improvement and may still prove to be better than I think he is, but I really still think he took advantage of Upstart's situation (not pointed for the Florida Derby and over the top).  He'll be overbet today because of the speed figure and the connections (Pletcher-Castellano).  While he could win and prove me wrong (again) you have to be very concerned about the poor draw (like his stablemate just to his inside).  And then there is the fact that no colt has won the Derby without racing at age two since the 1880s.  That looks like a LOT to overcome to me......not even considering how good the top two are in here.

4 - Tencendur (30/1) - He was second in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at odds of 20/1.  I think that says as much about the lack of quality in the Wood as it does about him having a legitimate chance today.

5 - Danzig Moon (30/1) - At odds of 30/1 I think this one has a legitimate chance to fill out one of the slots underneath the winner and take home a big check today, without winning the race.  He was a decisive winner after a good second here in the fall.  His lackluster effort in the Tampa Bay Derby is probably easily dismissed with the sandy surface and in his first try against winners.  Focus more on his good second to Carpe Diem in the Grade 1 Bluegrass and series of sharp works locally tells me he's well worth using underneath if you are looking to bet the trifecta and superfecta.

6 - Mubtaahij (20/1) - Very, very interesting.  He's won four of his last five and the lone loss was a second beaten only a head.  That international trainer Michael deKock decides to ship from Dubai for the Derby could be meaningful.  I truly believe that if the favorite loses today it will only be because of something that isn't obvious or apparent......like a horse shipping in from Dubai.  Well worth using in multiple race wagers and maybe even underneath the favorite.

7 - El Kabeir (30/1) - He spent the early part of the spring prep season as the Derby points leader, and was a surprising winner of the Grade 3 Gotham when taken well off the pace for he first time.  His even effort in the Wood, which I don't think was much of a quality race makes him easy to dismiss for me.

8 - Dortmund (3/1) - He is easily the one to fear in here.  Like Carpe Diem, in any other year he would be a solid favorite.  If able to win the Derby he'll be the first unbeaten colt to wear the roses since 2008 and only the seventh to do so in the 141 years that the historic race has been run.  Dortmund is a massive horse that towers over all the other nineteen colts entered today.  One thing he's proven is his ability to look another rival in the eye and outrun him to the wire.  Typically you do NOT want a big horse like this in the Kentucky Derby which requires a very athletic horse to maneuver through a twenty-horse field, but Dortmund has shown he IS nimble despite his size.  He'll be near the front and if the favorite is not as good as advertised then this is your most likely winner.

9 - Bolo (30/1) - Third in back-to-back starts to second choice Dortmund, his only two career wins have come on the turf.  While the Churchill surface is often kind to turf horses this colt looks overmatched.

10 - Firing Line (12/1) - If you like Dortmund, and he's 3/1 in the morning line, then you HAVE to like this guy.  He's faced Dortmund twice and was second both times....beaten a head both times.  He confirmed his talent when he blasted an overmatched field in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby, drawing off by FOURTEEN widening lengths.  Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens aboard.  If I were going for a price play, he'd be the one for me.

11 - Stanford (30/1) - He was my choice to upset the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and he was sent off at huge odds of 7/1 for Todd Pletcher.  He led every step of the way, but the final jump when nailed on the wire.  I think that says as much AGAINST the Ramsey winner as it does for Stanford.  An early pace presence at best.

12 - International Star (20/1) - He carries the Ramsey colors into the Derby and it would be a great story to see them win the Run for the Roses.  But in spite of winning all three Kentucky Derby preps in New Orleans he just looks a cut below the best ones.  Would take the race of his life AND an "off day" by not one but both Baffert colts for him to score.

13 - Itsaknockout (30/1) - He surprised his stablemate when he won his debut in December at Gulfstream, but looked sensational in winning his first allowance test. He was given the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on a bogus DQ of the clear winner (Upstart who is in the field today).  He ran more to expectations when well beaten in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  But to his credit he's worked very well for this locally.  Could surprise underneath at a big number with an improved effort.

14 - Keen Ice (50/1) - He has a maiden win here at two, but has never been a factor in any stakes start at three.  Why?  His owners should "Let It Go".....get it, "Ice" - "Frozen?"  LOL

15 - Frosted (15/1) - After disappointing in all of his Florida tries on the Derby trail he returned to Aqueduct where he'd run his best career race.  And he won the Grade 1 Wood with authority.  He appears to me to be an "Aqueduct Horse-for-the-Course" and a cut below these.  As such his win in the Wood makes that race a negative key race for me.

16 - War Story (50/1) - Second twice and third once behind International Star I would have a hard time believing he can reverse the outcome on that one, much less on the more talented Derby contenders.

17 - Mr. Z (50/1) - He does own a win under the Twin Spires in his maiden debut twelve races back.  Yet to win since then I think he's way WAY over his head here.  He made a bold middle move in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby before flattening out, but look down his pp's - he's lost to SIX of today's rivals - six.  Ouch.

18 - American Pharoah (5/2) - He's the main man, he's the favorite, he's the defending two-year-old champion - and that despite not being able to run in the Breeders' Cup due to illness.  After disappointing in his maiden debut sprinting he broke his maiden in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity with a huge 101 Beyer.  That's a GIANT figure for a two-year-old to run.  He came right back and stretched out around two turns in the Grade 1 Awesome Again in his first time on "real dirt" while romping "in hand" and earning another triple digit Beyer.  He was going to be my "BET of the DAY" on Breeders' Cup Saturday until he was withdrawn.  He made his delayed sophomore debut at Oaklawn in the Grade 3 Rebel and was ultra impressive handing the shipping across the country and first-time sloppy surface by winning in hand.  He came back as the heavy favorite in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and showed he did not need to have the lead to win.  The way he drew of through the lane that afternoon was breathtaking to this racing fan as I stood on the steps of the Oaklawn apron.  He was my "BET of the Weekend" while we were on our Arkansas Adventure and he did not disappoint.  I only had two questions remaining on my early Derby pick - would he take to the Churchill surface which is a quirky one that sometimes horses simply don't like, and would he get a favorable draw.  He had his lone work over the Churchill strip last Sunday.  When a thoroughbred works 5 furlongs in 1:00 you can expect he's going to run big.  When they work 5 furlongs in :59 and change you can believe they are sitting on a very special effort.  So when I tell you that American Pharoah stopped the clock in :58.2 seconds you can imagine my enthusiasm.  The reactions to the work......not one but two separate video commentators remarked that "....it wasn't how fast he worked, but how effortlessly he worked...." that impressed them.  And the official Churchill Downs clocker who timed the workout was quoted as saying, "......I've been doing this 35 years and he's the BEST horse I've EVER seen......."  I think that after he wins, and he WILL win - decisively - I think it will be easy for everyone who bets against him to say, "I should have known he was simply the best horse."  I am excited to see a very special talent win the Run for the Roses and move on to the second jewel of the Triple Crown in Baltimore where I will be lucky enough to see him win again (hopefully) and take a shot at history.

19 - Upstart (15/1) - He was electrifying in winning the Grade 2 Holy Bull to kick off his Derby prep season.  Then in spite of probably bouncing off that big effort he was still clearly best in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, only to be DQ'd in the worse decision by the stewards all winter at Gulfstream.  So peeved were his connections that they announced they would run next in the Wood Memorial and pointed for that.  Then suddenly they changed their tune and said they would indeed stay in Florida.  It's never a good thing - it's been my experience - when a horse runs, especially in a stakes race, in a race he was NOT originally pointed for.  But on Florida Derby Day I did NOT believe in Materiality (still don't) and this guy's figures were just simply best.  He did run back to his big numbers but it was only good enough to be second best behind Materiality who freaked that day.  The outside draw doesn't help.

20 - Far Right (30/1) - He was the hometown hero on the Arkansas Derby trail until champion American Pharoah came to town.  He was a good second behind that one while edging out Mr. Z who lost again that afternoon.

AE - Frammento - Would need a scratch to get in and he's got no business running, period.

AE - Tale of Verve - He just broke his maiden....really?  He'd have a hard time beating Frammento if both got in.  Just ridiculous that he's here......the owners get to sit in one of the privileged boxes; just not right.