Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes

3:02 pm - Race 8
Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes - 8 1/2 Furlongs - $400K

Top Contenders

The first question you have to answer, as in all handicapping puzzles, is this - are the program favorites legitimate win candidates?  If not then you have two big price plays that make a lot of sense here:  3-Neck 'n Neck (8/1) is 4-for-6 here at Churchill Downs and would be no surprise based on his status as a "Horse-for-the-Course;" and 9-Noble Bird (20/1) has won three of his last four as a lightly raced and improving colt for top connections.  But, I do believe the top two are legitimate in here.  2-Prontico (3/1) has earned his stripes with three big speed figures and is clearly the one to beat.  Todd Pletcher runs his stars where they have a chance to win and John Velazquez is a Hall of Fame rider.  But the fact that top North American rider Javier Castellano chooses 7-Honor Code (7/2) over Prontico makes him my top pick today.

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1 - Den's Legacy (15/1) - A resume of 28/3-8-5 and the fact his most recent win came in a non-winners of three LIFETIME stamps him a solid NO in my book in this Grade 2 $400K race.

2 - Prontico (3/1) - If you are willing to draw a line through his 2015 debut when "eased" out of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at odds of 5/1, this guy earns the role of program favorite.  He was third last summer behind the next-out winner of the Grade 1 Travers, then scored in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones.  He was outrun by BC Classic winner Bayern (who freaked in the Gr 2 Pa Derby that day), but bounced back to be a just-miss second HERE in the Grade 1 Clark;  then came the Donn and most recently he romped EASILY in the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland.  That made for three consecutive triple digit Beyers (in races he finished).  Toss in he's a Pletcher runner and you can see why he'll leave the gate favored.

3 - Neck 'n Neck (8/1) - What has to give you hope for the upset if he's your choice is this:  at all other venues he is 1-for-17, here he's 4-for-6!  Uh oh.  He chased Prontico all the way around the Lexington oval last out and was clearly best of the rest without threatening the top one who was loose on the lead.  The price play.

4 - Ride On Curlin (6/1) - He was the "wise guy" play to complete the Preakness exacta behind 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome, but has done little since then.  Not a whole lot to like unless you want to pin your chances on that lone effort.

5 - Tarpy's Surprise (15/1) - He has a maiden win and a solid victory over entry level allowance runners, but has failed in back-to-back nw2x allowance events.....and now he's in a $400K Grade 2?  No, definitively no.

6 - Midnight Cello (9/2) - His two triple digit figures showing in his pp's say he "could" win this, but the fact that they came in an allowance test and in a listed stakes at GPW (formerly Calder) says to me those figures are inflated.  Certainly not worth considering at single digit odds.

7 - Honor Code (7/2) - Perhaps the one key to the race is the fact that Javier Castellano rides for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey here.  Not just that Castellano is here, but he fact he is NOT on Prontico.  In six of the ten career starts for that guy Castellano was up (and in three other starts he was in the race onboard top Pletcher colt Constitution).  After a decisive win in the Gr 3 Ben Ali he still opts to ride here.  Honor Code was considered a legitimate Triple Crown threat last spring before going to he shelf.  A big win in a comeback sprint led to his entry in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap.  I was there that day when he was SO far back his little chicklet was out of the TV monitor on the far turn.  But with a sensational rally he was up in time going a one-turn mile.  Today he gets to stretch out and I think he stamps his case as a legitimate top handicap horse here.

8 - Call Me George (8/1) - After a well-beaten third at 5/2 odds in allowance company to kick off 2015 he surprised the Grade 2 New Orleans field at 22/1 last time out.  Prior to the 5/2 loss his previous four losses were at 20/1, 20/1, 30/1, and 30/1. Want to bet him at single digit odds?  I don't.

9 - Noble Bird (20/1) - He's lightly raced (only eight starts) and has won three of his last four.  IF the top two win contenders don't fire, he'd be the one I'd be most likely to take a shot with based on the connections of trainer Mark Casse and owner John Oxley.

10 - Cougar Ridge (10/1) - Very interesting that he was claimed for $62.5K last time out and the connections put him into a Grade 2, $400K spot.  Hmmmm.  Disconcerting that the new trainer is 1-for-19 with horses first off the claim.  Ouch.