Grade 2 American Turf Stakes

1:19 pm - Race 6
Grade 2 American Turf Stakes (3yo) - 8 1/2f-TURF - $250K

Top Contenders

A HIGHLY contentious group of sophomores will face off here and you can go any which way and I won't be surprised.  The only solid opinion I have is that the likely favorite on the rail, 1-Luck of the Kitten (7/2) will NOT last to the wire.  Of the closers I would have to give a big chance to longshot 11-Divisidero (20/1) who made a huge close in a Grade 3 in his first start against winners which was in a graded stakes.  8-Conquest Typhoon (5/1) would be the most logical on paper with two graded stakes wins over the turf already.

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1 - Luck of the Kitten (7/2) - He only knows one way to run, and that's on the front end.  He split his first four races with two wire wins and two solid seconds.  He set the pace in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was just caught in deep stretch when second best.  But off the shelf he was a disappointing second, beaten a neck, when caught in his 2015 debut over a soft Keeneland course in the Gr 3 Translvania.  He has the rail and he will be the one to catch today.  The long Louisville stretch will be the test today.

2 - Wireless Future (15/1) - How he's handled may be the key to the race.....in his two most recent races he's been sent to the front.  He won't outrun the rail runner, but he would certainly compromise that one's chances.  Note that both of those were over the main track however and in his previous turf tries he stalked the leader....that would give Luck of the Kitten an "easier" time on the front end.  Regardless he doesn't look like a win candidate.

3 - Granny's Kitten (20/1) - Don't dismiss this one too quickly - he's a homebred son of champion Kitten's Joy for leading North American owners/breeders Ken & Sarah Ramsey, with they #1 trainer Michael Maker.  He debuted with an off-the-pace win going six furlongs on the Belmont turf.  Should enjoy the added distance and he gets the top NY jockey in Irad Ortiz.  A legitimate longshot.

4 - Royal Son (5/1) - The Todd Pletcher trainee was second in his Saratoga dirt sprint debut, then second again behind Kentucky Derby candidate El Kabier.  He made his 2015 debut at Gulfstream and was second best at odds-on as my "BET of the Day."  But just when it appeared I'd lost the INQUIRY sign went up against the winner by the third place horse and in one of the most talked-about and controversial rulings Royal Son was put up as the winner.  He missed in his first try against winners but ran a huge figure (98) when upsetting the Battaglia Stakes at Turfway Park over their synthetic surface - which plays like turf.  He disappointed in the Grade 3 Spiral over the same course.  Today he gets to try the inner course for the first time and has Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens.  Interesting on his best effort.

5 - Another Lemon Drop (20/1) - Well, he does have a maiden win over the Keeneland turf, but since then his lone score was in an off-the-turf non-winners of two LIFETIME event.  I don't think so.

6 - A Lot (9/2) - Bill Mott is the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs and he sends out this son of hot sire Tapit off a just miss effort in the Grade 3 Dania Beach over the Gulfstream grass two back.  He scored with authority in a GP allowance last out with a solid speed figure.  John Velazquez is a frequent winner with Mott-trained horses.

7 - Nun The Less (6/1) - He's a perfect 6-for-6 in the money, which includes three wins already.  He won a nw2x allowance over the Keeneland course last time out with a figure that would be good enough to contend.

8 - Conquest Typhoon (5/1) - Hard to believe that he's 5/1 considering he's already earned not one but TWO graded wins over the turf.  He chased the rail runner in the Breeders' Cup when closing to be fourth.  A blistering best-of-38 bullet in a sizzling:59.1 here says he's ready to run today. 

9 - Firespike (15/1) - For a big price you get Javier Castellano for Michael Maker with a colt that's won two turf races already.  And if you think Conquest Typhoon is legitimate (I do), consider that this one was just a neck behind him over the synthetic Turfway surface in the Grade 3 Spiral last out.  Adds to the confusion.

10 - Indianaughty (20/1) - His connections caught Derby fever after he won his North American debut over the Gulfstream turf.  He shipped out to San Francisco and was no where to be found in a Grade 3, then they tried the Grade 1 Florida Derby where he was beaten more than 20 lengths at odds of more than 30/1.  Should appreciate the return to the turf.

11 - Divisidero (20/1) - Came from out of the clouds at 25/1 to win his maiden debut at Gulfstream in February; then very nearly repeated that when a fast-closing third in the Grade 3 Dania Beach when rallying from 7th to be third, beaten less than a length.  The faster the early pace the better for this one.

12 - Majestico (30/1) - Beaten a combined 42 lengths in his last four he'd be a big surprise.

13 - Tuba (20/1) - He won the Black Gold Stakes at the Fair Grounds at odds of 63/1 last time out.  If you like the kind of music he makes you're likely to get similar big odds today.

14 - World Appeal (15/1) - After two mediocre tries on the main track his Beyers jumped significantly when moved to the inner course two back.  He won his maiden and followed that with a win in the Tampa Bay Sophomore Turf as the 3/2 favorite.  It's a long way from that state-bred event to a graded stakes on Derby Day at Churchill I'm afraid.