Grade 3 Eight Belles Stakes

4:52 pm - Race 10
Grade 3 Eight Belles Stakes (3yo) - 7 Furlongs - $200K

Top Contenders

It would appear to me that the key to this race is understanding that there are at least five fillies that want the lead.  That sets the table for a stalker, or maybe a closer.  It's hard to look past the fact that trainer Bob Baffert has exceptional numbers with dirt sprinters when he ships in here, but he has TWO fillies in the field.  I think 1-Callback (7/2) is the one to beat.  She's run big before, she has the stalking style, and the addition of blinkers should allow her to relax off the leaders.  You know I LOVE the sizzling bullet work, locally no less, as an indicator of a big effort.  Hard to argue with the perfect 7-for-7 resume of 2-Promise Me Silver (6/1) who will be a juicy price today from off the pace.  And if 7-Lavender Chrissie (10/1) wins at a big price after I listed not one but SIX reasons to bet her, well, I'll be ill!

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1 - Callback (7/2) - This time last year I was kicking off my Churchill Downs Handicapping Project and discovered that trainer Bob Baffert is a 67% winner with sprinters under the Twin Spires.  It led me to a big win on the Derby undercard, and that same angle could be the difference-maker in this spot.  Callback won the $200K Sunland Oaks last time out, only to be DQ'd in a controversial call.  That was going a mile and a sixteenth.  The turn back to seven furlongs is a classic handicapping angle, and the sensational five furlong move over this track in a swift :59.3 says she's loving the surface.

2 - Promise Me Silver (6/1) - She's done nothing wrong with seven wins from seven starts.  She was an added money investment winner for me at Oaklawn but makes her first start in graded company today.  Second off the shelf resulted in a plus six point jump the last time she was in that situation, so a similar jump would give her the kind of number to beat the top one.  Hmmmm.

3 - Ekati's Phaeton (8/1) - Several things to like about this filly, in addition to the 8/1 DRF odds.  First, the pattern......four back BIG WIN at 7/1; then a dud;  three back BIG WIN at 27/1 odds; then a dud last time out.  Today.....uh oh!  She moves out of So Fla Bill Kaplan's barn to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott's barn and top jockey John Velazquez gets on board.  She's already got two graded wins in 2015; would be no surprise for the new connections.

4 - Mizz Money (30/1) - She's never won on dirt and exits four turf events.  In addition she looks outclassed here.  I don't think so.

5 - Fancy and Flashy (15/1) - She was 40/1 in Callback's Sunland Oaks, setting insane fractions for a route race of :21.2 and :45.4.  The fact she held on for fourth tells me that the track was "souped up" to play to speed that day.  Likely to show some early lick, but won't be around late.

6 - Scat Means Go (15/1) - Was a late-running, rallying 3rd in the Sunland Oaks in her first try against winners.  Would be a big jump forward to win today though.

7 - Lavender Chrissie (10/1) - A VERY interesting price play.....first, she has a stalking style which will play well in the pace scenario today; second, she already has a win at his unique seven furlong distance; third, and even more important, she has a blow-out win HERE at Churchill Downs where a win over the surface is a huge advantage; fourth, her lone loss was going a mile here but she was steadied losing all chance;  fifth, she comes in off an authoritative win first off the shelf which saw both the runner-up AND show horses come right back to win; and sixth, Javier Castellano takes the mount.  And all of this at double-digit odds?  Very interesting indeed.

8 - Enchanting Lady (4/1) - She's the "other Baffert" filly and that fact alone makes her very dangerous.  She's only been out four times and you can dismiss one of them, her fifth in the Grade 3 San Ysbel when facing Kentucky Oaks favorite Stellar Wind while trying two turns.  In her three sprint tries she has two wins and a second in her debut - which you can excuse when away slowly AND suffering a 4-wide trip.  Her last-out win number of 98 is a field-best figure.  Not sure what to make of her works - (a) that she doesn't have a local work, and (b) none of them are fast works, which is the normal Baffert training pattern.  Conversely NONE of her works are ever fast.  Hmmmm.

9 - Super Saks (10/1) - She was a solid third in a stakes behind Promise Me Silver - AS A MAIDEN four back.  Dominated her maiden win three back and then tried back-to-back two turn graded events.  Back to sprinting should improve her performance.

10 - Jugni (20/1) - That she broke her maiden HERE, sprinting is a plus.  That it was for a $45K tag is a minus.  Probable pace factor, but little else.

11 - Streetheart (15/1)- Exits a stalk & pounce win at this unique distance in allowance company at Keeneland.  That kind of trip would give her a legitimate chance today.

12 - Taylor S (9/2) - She appears to love the Twin Spires surface as she is the only multiple winner here at The Downs.  She was a good third in the Grade 2 Forward Gal in her 2015 debut off of a two month layoff, then won a listed stakes handily last time out.  The problem appears that all three wins, including both here, came on the front end.  With the wide draw and legitimate speed to her inside, either she has to change her running style today or she will be very compromised to win.