Monday, April 27, 2015

Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes

1:26 pm - Race 6
Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes (3yo) - 8 1/2f -TURF - $150K

Top Contenders
4-My Year Is A Day (30/1) is listed at huge odds by the DRF; will be interested to see her program odds considering her 6-for-7 in the money mark in Europe.  Top connections in a field where I think both the other two win contenders may have "issues."  That would be 3-Sunset Glow (8/5) who has every right to win here considering all three losses were to much, MUCH tougher than this.  But if she scores today she'll have to outrun other pace rivals or change running styles.  1-Quality Rocks was absolutely buried in her one try against the kind of fillies Sunset Glow has been beating, but she's consistent and comes off a Grade 3 win.
 
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1 - Quality Rocks (2/1) - With the exception of the Breeders' Cup against what is arguably the BEST 3yo filly in the country (but she won't be in today's Oaks because Lady Eli is a turf runner), this filly has done little wrong.  She shows three wins and two seconds from five starts and exits a win in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa.

2 - B Rockett (20/1) - A lone maiden win, at Tampa, and low Beyers....no.

3 - Sunset Glow (8/5) - If all you look at are the numbers on her turf resume - 4/1-2-1 - you'd be inclined to dismiss her.  But here's the thing, her first loss was at Royal Ascot in what is arguably Europe's most prestigious week of racing (I mean, duh, a gentleman cannot attend the races there unless he's in a topcoat with tails!);  her other two losses were a second in the Breeders' Cup to the aforementioned Lady Eli and then a third in her latest where she made her 2015 debut.....as did Lady Eli!  Not a fan that she has to have the lead to win, could compromise her chances.
 
4 - My Year Is A Day (30/1) - After a fifth in her Euro maiden debut she's hit the board in six straight, including three wins and two seconds.  Makes her North American debut for top trainer Graham Motion who scores at a 33% clip with those kind at a big $4.59 ROI for every $2 bet.  John Velazquez rides - could be the surprise package.

5 - Lady Zuzu (6/1) - Draw a line through the two dirt tries and you're left with three sharp races.  While she only ran sixth last out, that was going nine furlongs in her first graded try.  The fact she gets first Lasix today could indicate she bled, giving her a second excuse for the late fade.  Interesting.

6 - Feathered (7/2) - She looked to have a bright future after a dominant maiden win at Saratoga, followed by a close third in the Grade 1 Frizette and then a close 4th in the Breeders' Cup.  But two lackluster efforts on dirt to kick off her 2015 campaign sees top trainer Todd Pletcher try the filly on the inner course.  Javier Castellano rides and her Tomlinson ratings for grass are good.  Could run better than you think.

7 - Flying Tipat (20/1) - Two off-the-board finishes in her last two - an allowance try and a small listed stakes at GP - with slow Beyers.  No.

8 - Sweet Swingin (30/1) - Two dirt sprints at GP garnered her big figures.  But everything else leaves a lot to be desired.  First turf without any real solid bloodlines to back the experiment.....no.

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