Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks

Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (3yo) - 9 Furlongs - $1 Million

Top Contenders

I think this will be a sensational race to watch, and you're probably going to get a fair price on which ever filly wins.  It's a very close call for me between program favorite 12-Stellar Wind (7/2) who's been sensational in both wins in So Cal; 7-Lovely Wind (5/1) who exits an authoritative score in the Grade 1 Ashland AND has a sparkling work locally; and her stablemate 8-I'm A Chatterbox (4/1) who swept all three Oaks preps in New Orleans.

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1 - Forever Unbridled (15/1) - She has chased I'm A Chatterbox in all three Fair Grounds stakes this winter, and perhaps the stretch out to nine furlongs works in her favor.  I think not as in all of her races this winter she's backed up late. 

2 - Shook Up (30/1) - Her best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks last time out might be an indication that she's coming around.  Especially at a big price today.  The DRF odds of 30/1 make her a longshot worth considering.

3 - Include Betty (20/1) - She has won three of her last four, and here's what is very interesting.  The one loss in that sequence was a turf experiment!  So she is working on a perfect 3-for-3 dirt win streak and that includes a stunning upset of the Grade 3 Fantasy when she was 9th of eleven fillies at the top of the stretch but swept by EIGHT WIDE to be up in the nick of time at odds of 18/1.  Nothing would make me smile more than to see "my girl," former student Rosemary Homeister, Jr. win this race today.  She makes Churchill Downs history by just riding as only four other women have ridden in both a Kentucky Derby and a Kentucky Oaks.  I think if the pace is swift she has a real chance to light up the tote board, and even Rose has said she believes she has a real chance.  Her speed figures have improved in five straight races, but they'll need to jump up again to see her get her picture taken today.  As good a longshot possibility as you could ask for.

4 - Eskenformoney (20/1) - I have to be honest, she's surprised me - especially considering she's a Pletcher filly.  When she broke her maiden for me in December it was as much because it was Pletcher at Gulfstream with a maiden 3yo as it was a terrible field.  And it wasn't that big of a surprise when she won first time out against winners.  But her just miss third in the Davona Dale, and then best-of-the-rest second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks both were better than I'd anticipated.  Pletcher-Castellano on a sharp filly, at 20/1 odds (in the DRF at least).....hmmmmm.

5 - Condo Commando (4/1) - When she dominated the Grade 2 Gazelle last time out at 3/5, I didn't like her.  But like her two previous wins she was allowed to coast on the softest of leads from gate-to-wire.  If you do like her, you can be encouraged that unlike nearly every other filly in here she's won at today's demanding nine furlong distance....and done it TWICE, both in graded company.  But the chances that she'll be able to get away with a :48 and change first half mile is slim, and the chances of a 1:13 and change pace call after six furlongs, like in her last, are next to impossible to see happening.  I think she's overbet and doesn't hit the board.  Still, speed is always dangerous in thoroughbred racing.

6 - Angela Renee (15/1) - She's a real head-scratcher......after debuting with a win as a 2yo for Todd Pletcher at Belmont last summer she was a beaten favorite in two Saratoga graded sprints.  He sent her to California to prep for the Breeders' Cup and she responded with a win in the Grade 1 Chandelier going two turns.  That led to her leaving the gate as the post time favorite in the BC Juvenile Fillies.  But she was a dismal 10th.  She chased Condo Commando when third in the Gazelle, then was a close fourth to I'm A Chatterbox in the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra.  Last out she was a best-of-the-rest second behind today's rival, Lovely Maria in the Grade 1 Ashland.  BUT....she's the only Grade 1 winner in the field and comes off of paired speed figures (85-85) which is often a sign of impending improvement.  AND you get Pletcher at a big price.  Very tempting.

7 - Lovely Maria (5/1) - She's probably going to be no better than third choice on the board at post time, but she has the look of a solid favorite to me.  She is improving at the right time and enters here off an authoritative score in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland.  That came off of a second to her stablemate, I'm A Chatterbox when she was right at that one's neck in the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra when the jockey lost the whip.  Still, she held for second.  She appears to have come to hand for trainer Larry Jones - who also trains I'm A Chatterbox - and I love that near-bullet work in a sizzling :59.3 over this track.  Very, VERY dangerous.

8 - I'm A Chatterbox (4/1) - Frankly I'm surprised that not only is she not the favorite on the DRF morning line, but even more surprised she was not made the program favorite by Mike Battaglia, long-time Churchill Downs odds-maker.  What's a filly got to do to earn that status after she swept all three Kentucky Oaks prep races at the Fair Grounds?  It's a real plus in her favor that those three wins all came with very different trips.  She won the Silverbulletday stakes in wire-to-wire fashion; then she won the Gr 3 Rachel Alexandra by coming from well off the pace;  and she completed the trifecta as my "BET of the DAY" by stalking the leader in second in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.  After that win I thought I'd found my Oaks filly; but I was swayed.....now if she is NOT going to be the favorite, I'm tempted again!

9 - Money'soncharlotte (50/1) - She has finished behind not one of today's rivals, but SIX of them and never really threatened any of them.  Well, that's why she's 50/1 in the DRF.

10 - Oceanwave (30/1) - If she goes off at anywhere near the DRF odds of 30/1 and wins, you can look back and say, "I should have seen that."  She won back-to-back tries to close out her 2yo campaign.  Off of that she was the post time favorite in the Grade 3 Honeybee to start 2015 and had all kinds of traffic & racing trouble, but was still second.  She came back in the Grade 3 Honey Bee and again had traffic problems and was again second, this time by only a neck and was nearly put up by the stewards over today's rival Include Betty.  At double-digit odds off of two troubled trips where she still finished second......hmmmm.

11 - Sarah Sis (30/1) - Her first three stakes tries saw her finish second by a neck twice and then win the Grade 3 Honey Bee.  But in the Gr 3 Fantasy her rider put her on the lead!  WHAT?  The move from a journeyman rider at Oaklawn to Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens is a HUGE upgrade today.  Would need to improve, but not out of the question.

12 - Stellar Wind (7/2) - I thought perhaps I'd get a fair price on her in the Oaks, but she's listed as the favorite.  Honestly though, she's earned it.  After a troubled debut when sprinting at Laurel (where she was third, beaten less than a length by a repeat winner), she was allowed to stretch out to a mile and she blew the doors off the competition by drawing off by nearly nine widening lengths.  She was sent to California and into care of top So Cal trainer John Sadler and he put her into the Grade 3 Santa Ysbel for her sophomore debut.  Over the speed-favoring Santa Anita course she was near the back early, but blew by the field to draw off for her second consecutive win.  She was then sent off as the favorite in the Grade 1, $1 Million Santa Anita Oaks and again, as they approached the far turn she was at the back of the field.  She swept by the field to collar the leader turning for home, and for a couple of strides it appeared that she'd run her race with that big move; but at the furlong pole she found yet another gear and drew off in sensational style.  The third straight win was also her third straight Beyer speed figure improvement.  She's a daughter of two-time Horse-of-the-Year/Breeders' Cup Classic winner Curlin, so I'm not worried about the distance.  The only question is how she takes to the Churchill Downs surface.  Legitimate favorite and certain to be a multiple graded stakes winner this year.

13 - Birdatthewire (6/1) - The ride she got and/or the trip she had in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks was curious at best.  From the middle of the first turn through at least half way down the backstretch the rider was not only strangling her, but was literally standing straight up in the irons. I thought I'd lost all chance with my top pick that day, but as I thought, she came rolling on the turn and blew by today's rival Eskenformoney to score.  It's hard to win from off the pace at Gulfstream, but even harder going a mile and a sixteenth with the first finish line through a short stretch run; but that's what she did.  Might be this good, and would not surprise me.  But I think the field was suspect so she'll have to prove it to me - in spite of having won three of her last four, and the one loss was a second by a neck with considerable trouble.

14 - Puca (15/1) - She broke her maiden by SIXTEEN lengths and was many a handicapper's "wise guy" pick for the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies off of that maiden win.  But she was sixth, beaten only three lengths though, with a very compromised trip.  Her 2015 debut was in the Grade 2 Forward Gal at Gulfstream and again she found trouble (bobbled at the start and four wide) and was fourth.  In her most recent she chased loose-on-the-lead Condo Commando in the Grade 2 Gazelle.  No one in today's Oaks field has drawn the kind rave comments from DRF Clocker Mike Welsch for their works leading up to the race.  So if she goes off at a price, don't say I didn't warn you!

AE: 15 - Peace and War (50/1) - She shipped in from Europe and won the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland over a "wet-fast" track in October.  Then wasn't seen until early April when she was beaten 17 plus lengths in Lovely Wind's Grade 1 Ashland.  Needs a scratch to get in.