Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

6:34 pm - Race 11
Grade 1 Kentucky Derby (3yo) - 10 Furlongs - $2 Million

Top Contenders

18-American Pharoah (5/2) is the star attraction in what is probably the strongest collection of three-year-old colts to Run for the Roses in many years.  The fact that the four big prep races for the Derby were ALL won by short-priced favorites who stamped their ticket here speaks to the quality of the field.  And in any other year - in my opinion - any one of three of today's "other" horses would be deserving short-priced favorites for the Derby crown.  But this three-time Grade 1 winner is truly something special.  I can honestly say that in my many years at the races I have only had three "Oh My" reactions to a horse.  The first was when three-time Breeders' Cup Mile Champion accelerated through the stretch to win her third Grade 1 Mile while we were at Churchill Downs; the second was when Wise Dan set a new course record winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile two year ago WITHOUT BEING ASKED to run;  and the third came three weeks ago in Hot Springs, Arkansas when American Pharoah took my breath away as he devastated the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby field without ever being asked for his best.  He's the best horse, in fact I'd go as far as to say he's a clear-cut better horse than the other win contenders; he's worked sensationally locally; and he's drawn a good post position.  I see him tracking the pace to the far turn and then I'll be surprised if he not only wins, but if he doesn't win in another daylight, headline-making, take-your-breath-away fashion.  Maybe, just maybe we are going to see the long awaited Triple Crown winner in 2015.  He's talented enough for sure.  The BET of the WEEKEND.

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1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho (50/1) - After starting off his career with three straight wins, including a big win over two of his rivals today in the $1 Million Delta Jackpot, he's been soundly beaten in his preps for this at age three.  Draws the dreaded 1 hole and has to be considered a rank outsider that might be an early pace factor at best.

2 - Carpe Diem (8/1) - This pricey colt for Todd Pletcher and WinStar Farm has only one loss on his resume, a good second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  In any other year he'd probably be the Derby favorite, but he'll be no better than third choice today and you have to be concerned about the terrible inside post.  He'll probably have to be pushed early to escape the crush of horses in the run to the first turn which will compromise his late kick.  Most disconcerting to me was in spite of winning by daylight in the prep for this, the Grade 1 Bluegrass as the prohibitive favorite he had to work hard through the lane to put away that mediocre group......and didn't earn a very big number.  He's got a lot of graded stakes wins in his future, but one is not here today I'm afraid.  Would be no surprise if he runs to his press clippings, but I am against here.

3 - Materiality (12/1) - Heading into the Florida Derby he drew all kinds of comparisons to last year's Florida Derby winner who had gone 2-for-2 at Gulfstream before jumping into that Grade 1 feature.  But I wasn't buying it and went against him.  He made me pay with a huge 110 Beyer figure.  He probably has room for improvement and may still prove to be better than I think he is, but I really still think he took advantage of Upstart's situation (not pointed for the Florida Derby and over the top).  He'll be overbet today because of the speed figure and the connections (Pletcher-Castellano).  While he could win and prove me wrong (again) you have to be very concerned about the poor draw (like his stablemate just to his inside).  And then there is the fact that no colt has won the Derby without racing at age two since the 1880s.  That looks like a LOT to overcome to me......not even considering how good the top two are in here.

4 - Tencendur (30/1) - He was second in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at odds of 20/1.  I think that says as much about the lack of quality in the Wood as it does about him having a legitimate chance today.

5 - Danzig Moon (30/1) - At odds of 30/1 I think this one has a legitimate chance to fill out one of the slots underneath the winner and take home a big check today, without winning the race.  He was a decisive winner after a good second here in the fall.  His lackluster effort in the Tampa Bay Derby is probably easily dismissed with the sandy surface and in his first try against winners.  Focus more on his good second to Carpe Diem in the Grade 1 Bluegrass and series of sharp works locally tells me he's well worth using underneath if you are looking to bet the trifecta and superfecta.

6 - Mubtaahij (20/1) - Very, very interesting.  He's won four of his last five and the lone loss was a second beaten only a head.  That international trainer Michael deKock decides to ship from Dubai for the Derby could be meaningful.  I truly believe that if the favorite loses today it will only be because of something that isn't obvious or apparent......like a horse shipping in from Dubai.  Well worth using in multiple race wagers and maybe even underneath the favorite.

7 - El Kabeir (30/1) - He spent the early part of the spring prep season as the Derby points leader, and was a surprising winner of the Grade 3 Gotham when taken well off the pace for he first time.  His even effort in the Wood, which I don't think was much of a quality race makes him easy to dismiss for me.

8 - Dortmund (3/1) - He is easily the one to fear in here.  Like Carpe Diem, in any other year he would be a solid favorite.  If able to win the Derby he'll be the first unbeaten colt to wear the roses since 2008 and only the seventh to do so in the 141 years that the historic race has been run.  Dortmund is a massive horse that towers over all the other nineteen colts entered today.  One thing he's proven is his ability to look another rival in the eye and outrun him to the wire.  Typically you do NOT want a big horse like this in the Kentucky Derby which requires a very athletic horse to maneuver through a twenty-horse field, but Dortmund has shown he IS nimble despite his size.  He'll be near the front and if the favorite is not as good as advertised then this is your most likely winner.

9 - Bolo (30/1) - Third in back-to-back starts to second choice Dortmund, his only two career wins have come on the turf.  While the Churchill surface is often kind to turf horses this colt looks overmatched.

10 - Firing Line (12/1) - If you like Dortmund, and he's 3/1 in the morning line, then you HAVE to like this guy.  He's faced Dortmund twice and was second both times....beaten a head both times.  He confirmed his talent when he blasted an overmatched field in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby, drawing off by FOURTEEN widening lengths.  Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens aboard.  If I were going for a price play, he'd be the one for me.

11 - Stanford (30/1) - He was my choice to upset the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and he was sent off at huge odds of 7/1 for Todd Pletcher.  He led every step of the way, but the final jump when nailed on the wire.  I think that says as much AGAINST the Ramsey winner as it does for Stanford.  An early pace presence at best.

12 - International Star (20/1) - He carries the Ramsey colors into the Derby and it would be a great story to see them win the Run for the Roses.  But in spite of winning all three Kentucky Derby preps in New Orleans he just looks a cut below the best ones.  Would take the race of his life AND an "off day" by not one but both Baffert colts for him to score.

13 - Itsaknockout (30/1) - He surprised his stablemate when he won his debut in December at Gulfstream, but looked sensational in winning his first allowance test. He was given the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on a bogus DQ of the clear winner (Upstart who is in the field today).  He ran more to expectations when well beaten in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  But to his credit he's worked very well for this locally.  Could surprise underneath at a big number with an improved effort.

14 - Keen Ice (50/1) - He has a maiden win here at two, but has never been a factor in any stakes start at three.  Why?  His owners should "Let It Go".....get it, "Ice" - "Frozen?"  LOL

15 - Frosted (15/1) - After disappointing in all of his Florida tries on the Derby trail he returned to Aqueduct where he'd run his best career race.  And he won the Grade 1 Wood with authority.  He appears to me to be an "Aqueduct Horse-for-the-Course" and a cut below these.  As such his win in the Wood makes that race a negative key race for me.

16 - War Story (50/1) - Second twice and third once behind International Star I would have a hard time believing he can reverse the outcome on that one, much less on the more talented Derby contenders.

17 - Mr. Z (50/1) - He does own a win under the Twin Spires in his maiden debut twelve races back.  Yet to win since then I think he's way WAY over his head here.  He made a bold middle move in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby before flattening out, but look down his pp's - he's lost to SIX of today's rivals - six.  Ouch.

18 - American Pharoah (5/2) - He's the main man, he's the favorite, he's the defending two-year-old champion - and that despite not being able to run in the Breeders' Cup due to illness.  After disappointing in his maiden debut sprinting he broke his maiden in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity with a huge 101 Beyer.  That's a GIANT figure for a two-year-old to run.  He came right back and stretched out around two turns in the Grade 1 Awesome Again in his first time on "real dirt" while romping "in hand" and earning another triple digit Beyer.  He was going to be my "BET of the DAY" on Breeders' Cup Saturday until he was withdrawn.  He made his delayed sophomore debut at Oaklawn in the Grade 3 Rebel and was ultra impressive handing the shipping across the country and first-time sloppy surface by winning in hand.  He came back as the heavy favorite in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and showed he did not need to have the lead to win.  The way he drew of through the lane that afternoon was breathtaking to this racing fan as I stood on the steps of the Oaklawn apron.  He was my "BET of the Weekend" while we were on our Arkansas Adventure and he did not disappoint.  I only had two questions remaining on my early Derby pick - would he take to the Churchill surface which is a quirky one that sometimes horses simply don't like, and would he get a favorable draw.  He had his lone work over the Churchill strip last Sunday.  When a thoroughbred works 5 furlongs in 1:00 you can expect he's going to run big.  When they work 5 furlongs in :59 and change you can believe they are sitting on a very special effort.  So when I tell you that American Pharoah stopped the clock in :58.2 seconds you can imagine my enthusiasm.  The reactions to the work......not one but two separate video commentators remarked that "....it wasn't how fast he worked, but how effortlessly he worked...." that impressed them.  And the official Churchill Downs clocker who timed the workout was quoted as saying, "......I've been doing this 35 years and he's the BEST horse I've EVER seen......."  I think that after he wins, and he WILL win - decisively - I think it will be easy for everyone who bets against him to say, "I should have known he was simply the best horse."  I am excited to see a very special talent win the Run for the Roses and move on to the second jewel of the Triple Crown in Baltimore where I will be lucky enough to see him win again (hopefully) and take a shot at history.

19 - Upstart (15/1) - He was electrifying in winning the Grade 2 Holy Bull to kick off his Derby prep season.  Then in spite of probably bouncing off that big effort he was still clearly best in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, only to be DQ'd in the worse decision by the stewards all winter at Gulfstream.  So peeved were his connections that they announced they would run next in the Wood Memorial and pointed for that.  Then suddenly they changed their tune and said they would indeed stay in Florida.  It's never a good thing - it's been my experience - when a horse runs, especially in a stakes race, in a race he was NOT originally pointed for.  But on Florida Derby Day I did NOT believe in Materiality (still don't) and this guy's figures were just simply best.  He did run back to his big numbers but it was only good enough to be second best behind Materiality who freaked that day.  The outside draw doesn't help.

20 - Far Right (30/1) - He was the hometown hero on the Arkansas Derby trail until champion American Pharoah came to town.  He was a good second behind that one while edging out Mr. Z who lost again that afternoon.

AE - Frammento - Would need a scratch to get in and he's got no business running, period.

AE - Tale of Verve - He just broke his maiden....really?  He'd have a hard time beating Frammento if both got in.  Just ridiculous that he's here......the owners get to sit in one of the privileged boxes; just not right.

Grade 1 Woodfood Reserve Turf Stakes

4:44 pm - Race 10
Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic - 9f-TURF - $500K

Top Contenders

Although I have to admit I was skeptical about the announcement that top turf mare 8-Stephanie's Kitten (9/2) would make her next start here, against the boys, after her 2015 debut win at Tampa, it now appears to me to be a very wise decision.  There are no superstars to fear in this Grade1 event, and all the program favorites who are likely to beat her have questions to answer.  Toss in that she's been ambitiously pointed for this AND that she absolutely adores running under the Twin Spires (a perfect 3-for-3 including her career best effort) and I think you've got the perfect storm for her to upset the boys.  9-Seek Again (4/1) would win if able to reproduce his effort from last year's edition when 2nd by a head to Wise Dan, but his last two are ugly efforts.  7-Jack Milton (5/1) may be well worth the nice price considering he exits a Grade 1 win and goes for Todd Pletcher & Javier Castellano.

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1 - Optimizer (12/1) - He has the ability to jump up when you least expect it with a huge effort, but the fact he's not posed in the winner's circle since 2013 is a big concern.

2 - Sky Captain (15/1) - He's lost three straight allowance tests and is winless over the turf.  Why would you enter him in a Grade 1 turf race?  NO.

3 - Umgiyo (30/1) - Top international trainer Michael deKock brings this guy from Dubai for his first North American try, so the international background is interesting.  But without a win since 2013 he's probably a bad bet at even the 30/1 program odds.

4 - Scrumpdiliecious (50/1) - Owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey are never worried about taking a chance and this one was claimed for a non-winners of two LIFETIME last September.  Since then he's hit the board in allowance company and has a single win.  Not here.

5 - Finnegan's Wake (9/2) - He had a three race win streak, all in marathon Grade 2 events out west, snapped last time out when second best as the 3/5 favorite.  At least you will get a better price today, but appears to be over the top.

6 - Coalport (8/1) - After easily wiring the Grade 3 John Connolly two back he was taken back off the pace last time out only to see that front runner coast wire-to-wire....and he's in the field today to try to extend his winning streak.  If I were jockey Miguel Mena, or trainer Michael Maker, or owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey I'd be sending this one from his inside post and try to steal it.

7 - Jack Milton (5/1) - He was a top selection for me on the undercard on Fountain Of Youth day at Gulfstream but had a terrible trip.  I passed on his chances in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark last time out and he scored at a big $11 payoff.  He's a legitimate win contender on his current form and he's run well against the top ones in here.....but it would appear he's best at one mile, not at this mile and an eighth trip.

8 - Stephanie's Kitten (9/2) - She is one of the best turf fillies & mares in training so it was very curious to me that after winning her 2015 debut in Tampa's Grade 3 Hillsborough that it was announced her next start would be to try the boys here.  But in a field without a superstar you have to like these facts:  (a) she is a multiple Grade 1 winner, (b) her speed figures match up competitively, and most importantly (c) she LOVES this course with a perfect 3-for-3 local record.  She has top trainer Chad Brown and top jockey John Velazquez and he comes off a bullet work most recently.  I give her a big chance today.

9 - Seek Again (4/1) - He'll get a lot of attention in the wagering based on his near-miss in this race when second beaten a head by two-time Horse-of-the-Year Wise Dan.  But since that effort he's only 1-for-4, a neck win at that, AND he's been soundly beaten in his last two.  He's a play against for me.

10 - Chocolate Ride (12/1) - He's won three in a row, without getting much respect, while moving from nw1x allowance, into a Grade 3, and most recently into a Grade 3.  He'll be dismissed again and if he wins it will pay double digits.  Speed is always dangerous, but thinking he'll cave late.

11 - Slumber (8/1) - He was my top pick to run down the speed in the Grade 2 Mervin Muniz on Louisiana Derby Day in spite of the fact he's not won since August 2013.  He made a huge rally on the turn and looked to have dead aim on Chocolate Ride, but could not get by, again.  He's a legitimate win contender again, but after running second in three of his last four and losing four of his last five by less than a length I wonder if he WANTS to win.

12 - Grand Arch (8/1) - He's run consistently well in graded company, without winning.  But his wins always seem to be against lesser.  I don't think he's got a real chance today.

Gade 3 Pat Day Mile Stakes

12:38 pm - Race 5
Grade 3 Pat Day Mile Stakes (3yo) - 8 Furlongs - $200K

 

Top Contenders

Todd Pletcher's unbeaten colt, 6-Competitive Edge (6/5) is an immense talent and is a legitimate favorite here.  The only question I have is the colt he beat last out at Gulfstream, who was highly regarded did not run to his big numbers when a narrow winner in a listed stakes (only to be DQ'd).  The most likely to upset the favorite is Bob Baffert's duo of ship-in colts; of the two I like 2-Gimme Da Lute (7/2) best.  His Beyer last out is the best in the field and a repeat of that would make the favorite show his very best.

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1 - Where's The Moon (15/1) - After winning his maiden at his native Sunland Park he took the Mine That Bird Derby with authority.  Then he faced the very good Firing Line - who was exiting a second to Derby second choice Dortmund.  Firing Line was MUCH the best that day in the Sunland Derby, but 'Moon was second best of the rest of the field.  Considering that Firing Line is considered live in the Kentucky Derby you have to at least consider this one here.

2 - Gimme Da Lute (7/2) - A Bob Baffert entrant, and that alone makes you pay attention.  He was a close second in his debut, and the winner came right back to score.  Then he improved his speed figure when breaking his maiden second out at 3/5 odds; and then jumped to a giant 100 Beyer when taking the Echo Eddie Stakes, a Santa Anita sprint.  He was five clear of the second place horse who came right back to win.  Stretches out to a one-turn mile here which should be well within his scope.  Dangerous.

3 - The Truth Or Else (15/1) - He started his career with three misses on the turf, all losses.  But when put on the main track he scored immediately.  Since then he's seen nothing but graded stakes - third in two as a juvenile, then just missed in the Southwest at Oaklawn.  Completely outrun by Derby favorite American Pharoah in his last two he should enjoy the huge drop in class.

4 - Hillbilly Royalty (8/1) - This guy was my top pick in the Northern Spur at this distance on the Arkansas Derby undercard and was loose on the lead in mid-stretch before caving in behind a well-meant MAIDEN from the Baffert barn.  Second best that day, I think he's over his head here.

5 - Lord Nelson (3/1) - After breaking his maiden at first asking at Del Mar he's seen a steady diet of stakes, which includes a win in the Grade 2 San Vicente over BC Juvenile champion Texas Red (who's since been injured).  The second Baffert in here, and he's a very logical choice IF he can get the distance which is a legitimate question.

6 - Competitive Edge (6/5) - The $750K son of Derby champion Super Saver is perfect in three starts.  He debuted with a huge win at Saratoga when he was no secret for Todd Pletcher as he was a short 4/5 that day.  Right back in the Grade 1 Hopeful where he romped by daylight again at 3/5 odds.  He had issues getting back to the race before he romped in a Gulfstream listed stakes a month ago.  All three figures he's earned have been in the 90's.  He will take a lot of beating today.

7 - Pain and Misery (20/1) - While he was third behind Where's The Moon in the Sunland Derby, his Beyers are way slower than the main win contenders.

8 - Peace and War (20/1) - This filly was on the AE list for the $1 Million Kentucky Oaks, but ends up here against the colts.  Interesting in that she came over from Europe as a 2yo and immediately shook up the Americans by winning the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland.  But she was off from that October win until a try in the Grade 1 Ashland last month....she was distanced when dead last beaten more than fifteen lengths.  Would be a major upset.

Grade 1 Humana Distaff Stakes

2:08 - Race 7
Grade 1 Humana Distaff Stakes - 7 Furlongs - $300K

Top Contenders
There are two Grade 1 winners in here, who've won at this distance in that elite company and both have every right to win the race based on nearly every handicapping angle.  But I'm going with a long shot in here who will most likely be overlooked, and that is Todd Pletcher's  7-Sweet Whiskey (6/1).  She's not won a race since January 2014, but here's the thing.  This field of eight doesn't have a single front-runner in the field.  The ONLY one in here who has EVER gone to the front is Sweet Whiskey.  At first glance you could label her as a faint-hearted frontrunner who will set the table for the two likely favorites, but I would argue that every time she's given way it was after she dueled through the early fractions.  The ONLY time she was loose on the lead she romped home an easy winner.  Right to the front......WHERE'S THE WIRE!  If Sweet Whiskey can't hang on then the final 16th of the long Churchill stretch should come down to who gets the best trip between 1-Sweet Reason (5/1) and Breeders' Cup champion 8-Judy the Beauty (6/5).

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1 - Sweet Reason (5/1) - Her career has been often interrupted with physical issues, but if you are willing to believe she can beat older rivals in her first try outside of the sophomore ranks she's a legitimate win candidate.  You have to love the fact she is a THREE-TIME Grade 1 winner, two of those at today's unique seven furlong distance (the other at a one-turn mile which is very similar in configuration).  AND the fact that she has won off the layoff not once, not twice, not three times, but FOUR different times gives you confidence to bet with enthusiasm.  She comes from well off the pace so she'll need a good pace set-up and racing luck.  Dangerous with a bullet work just this past Tuesday.

2 - Thank You Marylou (10/1) - In the last fourteen months she has but one win.....BUT, it was at today's seven furlongs, in a graded stakes, HERE at Churchill Downs.  Uh oh.  But, she has been defeated by the top two fillies already.  Still, would not be a surprise.

3 - Dame Dorthy (9/2) - Top North American trainer Todd Pletcher has done a superb job in managing her career as she's built a 7/5-1-1 resume.  Of the seven starts five have come at a route distance, and they have been solid efforts.  But the only two times she went one turn, both at today's seven furlong distance, SHE WON!  She was second in a Santa Anita Grade 1 event to the hottest mare out west last time out.  The turn back should work in her favor today.  Note that both seven furlong wins came from off the shelf....like today.  Castellano rides for Pletcher, always dangerous together.

4 - Clearly Confused (8/1) - While she was a good third (at nearly 30/1) in the Grade 1 Madison last time out I am very concerned that last April she was running for a $25K claiming tag.  Over her head here.

5 - You Bought Her (12/1) - After winning a Tampa allowance in January she's been 37/1, 16/1, and 20/1 in her last three.  While odds don't tell the whole story, I think it is significant that she was big odds in those......but wait a tic, she was second at 37/1; won at 16/1; and was second beaten a neck at 20/1!  Maybe.......

6 - Moonlit Stroll (20/1) - She won her debut, here, in an off-the-turf sprint on the main track and has since run all three career starts on the grass.  Interesting to return to the main track in a Grade 1.

7 - Sweet Whiskey (6/1) - She won the Grade 3 Old Hat in January 2014, but has failed to score since.  She's been second or third in five of her subsequent eight, but don't like the fact she can't seem to find the winner's circle.  She was entered in yesterday's Grade 1 La Toienne at nine furlongs - this seems a more suitable distance, but still unlikely.

8 - Judy The Beauty (6/5) - The defending Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint champion (at this distance) makes her first start since that November championship score.  But take note.....in March 2014 she came off a long layoff to win the Grade 3 Las Flores; last August she came off a long layoff to win the Grade 3 Rancho Bernando; and in the Breeders' Cup she was coming off a long layoff.  Hmmmm.  She's the class of the field, but at such a short price?

Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes

3:43 pm - Race 9
Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes - 7 furlongs - $500K

Top Contenders

It's all about the return of Breeders' Cup Classic winner 2-Bayern (1/1) in this spot.  I wouldn't be stunned if he hits a wall at the top of the stretch, but I would be very surprised.  He looks to have been carefully pointed for this spot and the way Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert spots sprinters under the shadow of the Twin Spires you have to believe he's got this one on his toes for a huge effort today.  You won't make a lot of money, but I think he's a decisive winner over a over-matched field today.

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1 - Cee Zee (15/1) - I have mixed feelings on this guy, so I would have to consider him if he stays anywhere near those program odds.  On the upside he was a good second in the Grade 3 Phoenix behind Work All Week who finished 2014 unbeaten in dirt sprints topped off by an upset of the Breeders' Cup Sprint.  But Cee Zee's only win dating back to last July came in the Grade 3 Gulfstream Sprint over a VERY suspect field.  Maybe he hits the board.

2 - Bayern (1/1) - The question for this race is very simple - do you think Bayern runs his race or not.  If he runs his race it's all over except who completes the exacta.  If he falters today then you are going to get a big number regardless of who you land on.  In handicapping the race, if you are a real fan of thoroughbred racing, you HAVE to dismiss your feelings that he stole the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall when he obviously caused interference at the start and would have disqualified in any other race on the planet, except in the ultimate race of the year.  He's a perfect 2-for-2 at this unique sprint distance and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert wins over 2/3 of the time when he ships in a sprinter to Churchill Downs from his home base in So Cal.  Concerned about Bayern being ready to fire off the layoff?  Don't be, he's got not one, not two, but THREE smoking bullet works including a sensational six furlong move in 1:10.4 last Saturday.  To put that into perspective, that time would win a lot of graded stakes races, and he was only working out!  He looks really, REALLY hard to beat in this spot.

3 - Brewing (20/1) - Beaten in two allowance races in his last three starts (and in a listed stakes in between) you have to wonder why he's here.  Never in a million years.

4 - Private Zone (2/1) - He's proven on the big stage and he's got four straight triple digit speed figures.  But (a) he's been moved to a barn that's inexperienced with the big stage; (b) comes off a gut-wrenching loss last time out, so I expect a bounce effort today; and (c) he's not run at this unique distance since 2012!  He'll take a lot of money and would be the one to beat if not for Bayern's presence.....but I'd be against him even if Bayern was not in the race.

5 - Pants On Fire (5/1) - On Florida Derby Day I thought he had a real chance to upset the field at a generous price.  But I went against him in favor of what appeared to be a lone speed runner.  He made me pay at 3/1.  He's now a perfect 2-for-2 at the distance and his sharp third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile stamps him a threat.  I think he's the key horse to play under Bayern in the exacta and trifecta gimmick bets.

6 - Gentlemen's Bet (10/1) - He showed a return to form with his sensational 108 Beyer win two back in the $100K Hot Springs Stakes, but was a HUGE disappointment at 4/5 in the Grade 3 Count Fleet last time out.  Not the kind of effort I'd want to see leading into a Grade 1 event against the defending BC champion.

7 - Nate's Mineshaft (20/1) - Why?  Why would you run here if you owned/trained this one?  He's never won at the distance and in the only two graded tries on his resume he was beaten a combined 52 plus lengths.  No, Never.

Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes

2:59 pm - Race 8
Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Stakes - 8f-TURF - $300K

Top Contenders

In what appears to be a wide-open affair, I REALLY like the chances of European import, 11-Water Hole (12/1) today.  If her odds are double-digits as they are in the program she could be the "day-maker" for me here.  Euros nearly always outrun their North American friends and she's got top human connections in Chad Brown and Gary Stevens.  BOMBS AWAY!  The likely favorites, 4-Lady Lara (7/2), 5-Coffe Clique (5/1), and 8-Sandiva (7/2) would all be no surprise....particularly Lady Lara with her European roots.  But at fairly short prices, I'll shoot for the big score here!

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1 - Personal Diary (8/1) - She upset the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last summer at 9/1 odds going nine furlongs and has run credibly this season with a third and two fourth place finishes, all in graded efforts.  Thinking the mile distance today is too short for her best.

2 - Grand Elmendort (30/1) - She's never been in stakes races and BOTH of her wins came in turf races that were rained off the grass and run on the dirt.  Big time, NO.

3 - Tepin (15/1) - Soundly beaten, twice, by Personal Diary.  Maybe you consider her based on the close second at this distance in the Grade 2 San Vicente....but note the winner of that race, who stole it on the front end, has failed to last in several lesser events since.

4 - Lady Lara (7/2) - She ran thirteen times with moderate success in Europe, but since coming to North America she's stepped up her game with a win in the $100K Pebbles first off the plane; then a troubled second over this course in the Grade 2 Ms. Revere; and last out she caught today's rival Sandiva in the Grade 2 Honey Fox on Florida Derby Day.  Would not be a surprise for all-time training leader at Churchill Bill Mott.

5 - Coffee Clique (5/1) - She brought a three-race win streak into the aforementioned Grade 2 Honey Fox, but was coming off a LONG layoff that day.  Third as the favorite I'd expect some improvement today, but never was a believer in her ability despite the win streak.

6 - I'm Already Sexy (15/1) - She should be the speed of the race, but the fact she was loose on the lead HERE as the 8/5 favorite in the Grade 3 Cardinal.  Sets the table for a strong finisher I think.

7 - Solid Appeal (20/1) - He's a two-time winner in Grade 2 coming from off the pace and he's a big price.  Could surprise here.

8 - Sandiva (7/2) - She came to hand nicely at Gulfstream, winning two stakes.  She moved comfortably to the lead in the Grade 2 Honey Fox and seemed home free in mid-stretch, but was caught late by Lady Lara.  Could rebound today, but have the sense that she's a Gulfstream "Horse-for-the-Course."

9 - Strike Charmer (12/1) - She upset the Grade 3 Cardinal last fall at 12/1 but has been a big disappointment since, including a third at 4/5 in allowance company last time out.

10 - Maid On A Mission (30/1) - She has two wins locally, but both in allowance company.  The 30/1 odds are probably too short to consider her chances.

11 - Water Hole (12/1) - Handicappers "know," European turf runners are nearly always clearly superior to their North American counterparts.  And often they pay a generous price because no one knows what kind of form they have.  Trainer Chad Brown is a 30% winner with first-time North American runners and 32% with horses making their first start under his care.  This filly is 3/2-0-1 at the mile distance and Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens is up today.  I like her chances here at a big price.

12 - Kitty Wine (15/1) - Despite the bullet works for this, the well-beaten fifth in the Honey Fox at odds of better than 40/1 spell out her lack of a legitimate chance today.

13 - Kiss Moon (20/1) - Post 13, off since November, and her best races have come in listed stakes....not for me.

Grade 2 American Turf Stakes

1:19 pm - Race 6
Grade 2 American Turf Stakes (3yo) - 8 1/2f-TURF - $250K

Top Contenders

A HIGHLY contentious group of sophomores will face off here and you can go any which way and I won't be surprised.  The only solid opinion I have is that the likely favorite on the rail, 1-Luck of the Kitten (7/2) will NOT last to the wire.  Of the closers I would have to give a big chance to longshot 11-Divisidero (20/1) who made a huge close in a Grade 3 in his first start against winners which was in a graded stakes.  8-Conquest Typhoon (5/1) would be the most logical on paper with two graded stakes wins over the turf already.

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1 - Luck of the Kitten (7/2) - He only knows one way to run, and that's on the front end.  He split his first four races with two wire wins and two solid seconds.  He set the pace in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was just caught in deep stretch when second best.  But off the shelf he was a disappointing second, beaten a neck, when caught in his 2015 debut over a soft Keeneland course in the Gr 3 Translvania.  He has the rail and he will be the one to catch today.  The long Louisville stretch will be the test today.

2 - Wireless Future (15/1) - How he's handled may be the key to the race.....in his two most recent races he's been sent to the front.  He won't outrun the rail runner, but he would certainly compromise that one's chances.  Note that both of those were over the main track however and in his previous turf tries he stalked the leader....that would give Luck of the Kitten an "easier" time on the front end.  Regardless he doesn't look like a win candidate.

3 - Granny's Kitten (20/1) - Don't dismiss this one too quickly - he's a homebred son of champion Kitten's Joy for leading North American owners/breeders Ken & Sarah Ramsey, with they #1 trainer Michael Maker.  He debuted with an off-the-pace win going six furlongs on the Belmont turf.  Should enjoy the added distance and he gets the top NY jockey in Irad Ortiz.  A legitimate longshot.

4 - Royal Son (5/1) - The Todd Pletcher trainee was second in his Saratoga dirt sprint debut, then second again behind Kentucky Derby candidate El Kabier.  He made his 2015 debut at Gulfstream and was second best at odds-on as my "BET of the Day."  But just when it appeared I'd lost the INQUIRY sign went up against the winner by the third place horse and in one of the most talked-about and controversial rulings Royal Son was put up as the winner.  He missed in his first try against winners but ran a huge figure (98) when upsetting the Battaglia Stakes at Turfway Park over their synthetic surface - which plays like turf.  He disappointed in the Grade 3 Spiral over the same course.  Today he gets to try the inner course for the first time and has Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens.  Interesting on his best effort.

5 - Another Lemon Drop (20/1) - Well, he does have a maiden win over the Keeneland turf, but since then his lone score was in an off-the-turf non-winners of two LIFETIME event.  I don't think so.

6 - A Lot (9/2) - Bill Mott is the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs and he sends out this son of hot sire Tapit off a just miss effort in the Grade 3 Dania Beach over the Gulfstream grass two back.  He scored with authority in a GP allowance last out with a solid speed figure.  John Velazquez is a frequent winner with Mott-trained horses.

7 - Nun The Less (6/1) - He's a perfect 6-for-6 in the money, which includes three wins already.  He won a nw2x allowance over the Keeneland course last time out with a figure that would be good enough to contend.

8 - Conquest Typhoon (5/1) - Hard to believe that he's 5/1 considering he's already earned not one but TWO graded wins over the turf.  He chased the rail runner in the Breeders' Cup when closing to be fourth.  A blistering best-of-38 bullet in a sizzling:59.1 here says he's ready to run today. 

9 - Firespike (15/1) - For a big price you get Javier Castellano for Michael Maker with a colt that's won two turf races already.  And if you think Conquest Typhoon is legitimate (I do), consider that this one was just a neck behind him over the synthetic Turfway surface in the Grade 3 Spiral last out.  Adds to the confusion.

10 - Indianaughty (20/1) - His connections caught Derby fever after he won his North American debut over the Gulfstream turf.  He shipped out to San Francisco and was no where to be found in a Grade 3, then they tried the Grade 1 Florida Derby where he was beaten more than 20 lengths at odds of more than 30/1.  Should appreciate the return to the turf.

11 - Divisidero (20/1) - Came from out of the clouds at 25/1 to win his maiden debut at Gulfstream in February; then very nearly repeated that when a fast-closing third in the Grade 3 Dania Beach when rallying from 7th to be third, beaten less than a length.  The faster the early pace the better for this one.

12 - Majestico (30/1) - Beaten a combined 42 lengths in his last four he'd be a big surprise.

13 - Tuba (20/1) - He won the Black Gold Stakes at the Fair Grounds at odds of 63/1 last time out.  If you like the kind of music he makes you're likely to get similar big odds today.

14 - World Appeal (15/1) - After two mediocre tries on the main track his Beyers jumped significantly when moved to the inner course two back.  He won his maiden and followed that with a win in the Tampa Bay Sophomore Turf as the 3/2 favorite.  It's a long way from that state-bred event to a graded stakes on Derby Day at Churchill I'm afraid.

Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks

Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (3yo) - 9 Furlongs - $1 Million

Top Contenders

I think this will be a sensational race to watch, and you're probably going to get a fair price on which ever filly wins.  It's a very close call for me between program favorite 12-Stellar Wind (7/2) who's been sensational in both wins in So Cal; 7-Lovely Wind (5/1) who exits an authoritative score in the Grade 1 Ashland AND has a sparkling work locally; and her stablemate 8-I'm A Chatterbox (4/1) who swept all three Oaks preps in New Orleans.

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1 - Forever Unbridled (15/1) - She has chased I'm A Chatterbox in all three Fair Grounds stakes this winter, and perhaps the stretch out to nine furlongs works in her favor.  I think not as in all of her races this winter she's backed up late. 

2 - Shook Up (30/1) - Her best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks last time out might be an indication that she's coming around.  Especially at a big price today.  The DRF odds of 30/1 make her a longshot worth considering.

3 - Include Betty (20/1) - She has won three of her last four, and here's what is very interesting.  The one loss in that sequence was a turf experiment!  So she is working on a perfect 3-for-3 dirt win streak and that includes a stunning upset of the Grade 3 Fantasy when she was 9th of eleven fillies at the top of the stretch but swept by EIGHT WIDE to be up in the nick of time at odds of 18/1.  Nothing would make me smile more than to see "my girl," former student Rosemary Homeister, Jr. win this race today.  She makes Churchill Downs history by just riding as only four other women have ridden in both a Kentucky Derby and a Kentucky Oaks.  I think if the pace is swift she has a real chance to light up the tote board, and even Rose has said she believes she has a real chance.  Her speed figures have improved in five straight races, but they'll need to jump up again to see her get her picture taken today.  As good a longshot possibility as you could ask for.

4 - Eskenformoney (20/1) - I have to be honest, she's surprised me - especially considering she's a Pletcher filly.  When she broke her maiden for me in December it was as much because it was Pletcher at Gulfstream with a maiden 3yo as it was a terrible field.  And it wasn't that big of a surprise when she won first time out against winners.  But her just miss third in the Davona Dale, and then best-of-the-rest second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks both were better than I'd anticipated.  Pletcher-Castellano on a sharp filly, at 20/1 odds (in the DRF at least).....hmmmmm.

5 - Condo Commando (4/1) - When she dominated the Grade 2 Gazelle last time out at 3/5, I didn't like her.  But like her two previous wins she was allowed to coast on the softest of leads from gate-to-wire.  If you do like her, you can be encouraged that unlike nearly every other filly in here she's won at today's demanding nine furlong distance....and done it TWICE, both in graded company.  But the chances that she'll be able to get away with a :48 and change first half mile is slim, and the chances of a 1:13 and change pace call after six furlongs, like in her last, are next to impossible to see happening.  I think she's overbet and doesn't hit the board.  Still, speed is always dangerous in thoroughbred racing.

6 - Angela Renee (15/1) - She's a real head-scratcher......after debuting with a win as a 2yo for Todd Pletcher at Belmont last summer she was a beaten favorite in two Saratoga graded sprints.  He sent her to California to prep for the Breeders' Cup and she responded with a win in the Grade 1 Chandelier going two turns.  That led to her leaving the gate as the post time favorite in the BC Juvenile Fillies.  But she was a dismal 10th.  She chased Condo Commando when third in the Gazelle, then was a close fourth to I'm A Chatterbox in the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra.  Last out she was a best-of-the-rest second behind today's rival, Lovely Maria in the Grade 1 Ashland.  BUT....she's the only Grade 1 winner in the field and comes off of paired speed figures (85-85) which is often a sign of impending improvement.  AND you get Pletcher at a big price.  Very tempting.

7 - Lovely Maria (5/1) - She's probably going to be no better than third choice on the board at post time, but she has the look of a solid favorite to me.  She is improving at the right time and enters here off an authoritative score in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland.  That came off of a second to her stablemate, I'm A Chatterbox when she was right at that one's neck in the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra when the jockey lost the whip.  Still, she held for second.  She appears to have come to hand for trainer Larry Jones - who also trains I'm A Chatterbox - and I love that near-bullet work in a sizzling :59.3 over this track.  Very, VERY dangerous.

8 - I'm A Chatterbox (4/1) - Frankly I'm surprised that not only is she not the favorite on the DRF morning line, but even more surprised she was not made the program favorite by Mike Battaglia, long-time Churchill Downs odds-maker.  What's a filly got to do to earn that status after she swept all three Kentucky Oaks prep races at the Fair Grounds?  It's a real plus in her favor that those three wins all came with very different trips.  She won the Silverbulletday stakes in wire-to-wire fashion; then she won the Gr 3 Rachel Alexandra by coming from well off the pace;  and she completed the trifecta as my "BET of the DAY" by stalking the leader in second in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.  After that win I thought I'd found my Oaks filly; but I was swayed.....now if she is NOT going to be the favorite, I'm tempted again!

9 - Money'soncharlotte (50/1) - She has finished behind not one of today's rivals, but SIX of them and never really threatened any of them.  Well, that's why she's 50/1 in the DRF.

10 - Oceanwave (30/1) - If she goes off at anywhere near the DRF odds of 30/1 and wins, you can look back and say, "I should have seen that."  She won back-to-back tries to close out her 2yo campaign.  Off of that she was the post time favorite in the Grade 3 Honeybee to start 2015 and had all kinds of traffic & racing trouble, but was still second.  She came back in the Grade 3 Honey Bee and again had traffic problems and was again second, this time by only a neck and was nearly put up by the stewards over today's rival Include Betty.  At double-digit odds off of two troubled trips where she still finished second......hmmmm.

11 - Sarah Sis (30/1) - Her first three stakes tries saw her finish second by a neck twice and then win the Grade 3 Honey Bee.  But in the Gr 3 Fantasy her rider put her on the lead!  WHAT?  The move from a journeyman rider at Oaklawn to Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens is a HUGE upgrade today.  Would need to improve, but not out of the question.

12 - Stellar Wind (7/2) - I thought perhaps I'd get a fair price on her in the Oaks, but she's listed as the favorite.  Honestly though, she's earned it.  After a troubled debut when sprinting at Laurel (where she was third, beaten less than a length by a repeat winner), she was allowed to stretch out to a mile and she blew the doors off the competition by drawing off by nearly nine widening lengths.  She was sent to California and into care of top So Cal trainer John Sadler and he put her into the Grade 3 Santa Ysbel for her sophomore debut.  Over the speed-favoring Santa Anita course she was near the back early, but blew by the field to draw off for her second consecutive win.  She was then sent off as the favorite in the Grade 1, $1 Million Santa Anita Oaks and again, as they approached the far turn she was at the back of the field.  She swept by the field to collar the leader turning for home, and for a couple of strides it appeared that she'd run her race with that big move; but at the furlong pole she found yet another gear and drew off in sensational style.  The third straight win was also her third straight Beyer speed figure improvement.  She's a daughter of two-time Horse-of-the-Year/Breeders' Cup Classic winner Curlin, so I'm not worried about the distance.  The only question is how she takes to the Churchill Downs surface.  Legitimate favorite and certain to be a multiple graded stakes winner this year.

13 - Birdatthewire (6/1) - The ride she got and/or the trip she had in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks was curious at best.  From the middle of the first turn through at least half way down the backstretch the rider was not only strangling her, but was literally standing straight up in the irons. I thought I'd lost all chance with my top pick that day, but as I thought, she came rolling on the turn and blew by today's rival Eskenformoney to score.  It's hard to win from off the pace at Gulfstream, but even harder going a mile and a sixteenth with the first finish line through a short stretch run; but that's what she did.  Might be this good, and would not surprise me.  But I think the field was suspect so she'll have to prove it to me - in spite of having won three of her last four, and the one loss was a second by a neck with considerable trouble.

14 - Puca (15/1) - She broke her maiden by SIXTEEN lengths and was many a handicapper's "wise guy" pick for the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies off of that maiden win.  But she was sixth, beaten only three lengths though, with a very compromised trip.  Her 2015 debut was in the Grade 2 Forward Gal at Gulfstream and again she found trouble (bobbled at the start and four wide) and was fourth.  In her most recent she chased loose-on-the-lead Condo Commando in the Grade 2 Gazelle.  No one in today's Oaks field has drawn the kind rave comments from DRF Clocker Mike Welsch for their works leading up to the race.  So if she goes off at a price, don't say I didn't warn you!

AE: 15 - Peace and War (50/1) - She shipped in from Europe and won the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland over a "wet-fast" track in October.  Then wasn't seen until early April when she was beaten 17 plus lengths in Lovely Wind's Grade 1 Ashland.  Needs a scratch to get in.
 

Grade 3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes

4:02 pm - Race 9
Grade 3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes - 5f-TURF - $150K

Top Contenders

A WIDE-open affair looks to be to "feature" not one, but three vulnerable favorites in the program.  My top choice is the six-year-old mare 8-Good Deed (8/1) - appropriate enough on Oaks Friday where we feature the fillies & mares!  She comes off a horrendous trip in a Gulfstream stakes event and if able to sit just off the contested pace she'll get the first jump on the tiring speedsters.  If 10-Power Alert (15/1) is anything close to the DRF morning line odds AND the course is firm he might be my play here.  His first two NA starts were sensational, and I'd be willing to forgive the "good" ground fourth as the favorite last out.  3-Heitai (5/2) is exceptionally quick, but steps up to a whole new level today.  The inside draw of that one compromises last out Grade 3 winner 11-Something Extra (5/1).  And 12-Undrafted (3/1) is always close, but hasn't won since 2013.

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1 - Berlino de Tigre (50/1) - Sometimes you have to wonder, seriously, what are the connections thinking.  In this one's last six races he was 8th of 10, 7th of 7, 10th of 11, 8th of 9, 9th of 10, and 11th of 12 beaten a combined sixty-four lengths.  The most obvious NO of the day.

2 - Channel Marker (30/1) - So which way do you lean......do you like the fact he was second, beaten a half length with a big 100 Beyer last out; or do you dismiss that effort since he was 45/1 and has not won since October 2013?

3 - Heitai (5/2) - He's a perfect 4-for-4 in turf sprints and is a six-time stakes winner.  But he only knows one way to run, burst to the front and out run them to the wire.  The last time he tried a graded event he was caught by not one, but four others.  The one to beat, but he appears vulnerable to me.

4 - Jasizzle (50/1) - One turf try in the last year and it was in a lowly $75K listed event where he was a badly beaten eighth.......uh, no.

5 - Positive Side (30/1) - Well, you could give him a chance based on his good third in this very race last year.  BUT....he was running double digits faster on the Beyer scale then compared to his most recent efforts.

6 - Forest Elf (20/1) - He has won two of his last three, all turf sprints.  But, three back he was in against "beaten" $30K claimers (that's a restricted race for horses who have not won in months).  Outclassed here.

7 - Zee Bros (20/1) - You could do far worse for longshots.....he was a well beaten sixth last time out in a Grade 3 that sees all three of the top finishers in here today.  But the fact he left the gate at only 7/2 says somebody thought he was a legitimate runner.  His previous turf sprint earned a big 98 in a blow-out win, but that was in October.  Still, seeing Hall of Fame rider "Money Man" Mike Smith take the mount is intriguing.

8 - Good Deed (6/1) - She - that's right, a girl takes on the boys here - dominated her first two sprint efforts over the Fair Grounds turf course to kick off 2015. Last time out she was one of my most confident plays on the undercard of Fountain of Youth Day at Gulfstream.  But she broke behind the field and had not one but two different times where she was cut off and came to a screeching halt, but STILL was flying late to rally from 10th to be second beaten less than a length.  Sure to get a price today and I'll be surprised if she's not much closer to the pace today.

9 - Buster Rose (7/2)- He's won two in a row and five of his last six, so who can blame the connections for giving it a shot?  But those are four allowance wins and a restricted stakes race.  A fast pace, a likely event, sets him up to show his best today.

10 - Power Alert (15/1) - He came to North America from "Down Under" where he was a solid turf sprinter in Australian Handicap races and immediately made an impact with a win over a money-added allowance field at Gulfstream and then in a listed stakes.  Off of those back-to-back wins he was the tepid 5/2 favorite in the Grade 3 Shakertown last out at Keeneland.  But he was fourth, beaten by THREE of today's rivals.  IF you are willing to draw a line through that over a course labeled "good" and today's is sure to be "firm" then the 15/1 DRF odds are a huge overlay.

11 - Something Extra (5/1) - He went wire-to-wire in the previously mentioned Shakertown at odds of 8/1.  Well, he won't have an easy task repeating that kind of run from the outside post, but even more of a problem is that speedster Heitai is inside and he will NOT be denied the early lead.  A "play-against" for me.

12 - Undrafted (3/1) - The good news here is that he's a stone-cold closer so the far outside post won't hurt his chances much. BUT, since 2013 he shows one win as he always comes a little too late with not quite enough.  I might be willing to overlook that, but his best two efforts were in a six furlong sprint and going a mile - I think the five furlong distance today is too short.  He's an overbet vulnerable favorite in my book. 

Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes

2:01 pm - Race 7
Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes - 8 1/2 Furlongs - $300K

Top Contenders

From over 125 starts this group of fillies & mares have made ten Grade 1 appearances and have collectively been shut out - not the strongest editions of the La Troienne to say the least.  But the good news is that it makes for a wide-open event.  Three appear to stand out, but all with issues to overcome, so you have three paths to choose from:  (1) pass the race, the safest play; (2) go against all four logical win candidates for the big score; or (3) see something that tells you that one of the contenders is sitting on a big effort.  While passing the race is the safest way to go, I opt for the latter as I see nothing that indicates a big upset win.  2-My Miss Sophia (6/1) clearly has the most potential.  Hard to tell what went wrong late last spring, and maybe it was an indication that she's gone sour, permanently.  But the fact that the leading trainer of all time at Churchill Downs, Bill Mott, brings her back to the races is a big positive sign; the fact that he does NOT bring her back in a listed event, but in a Grade 1 event speaks volumes to his confidence level; the fact she has a string of bullet works tells me she's as ready to fire as she'll ever be; and the fact that the best jockey in North America (Javier Castellano) takes the mount seals the deal.  With that said, 4-Sheer Drama (4/1) is the one in the best current form, exiting a career best effort with an authoritative win at the distance.  8-Molly Morgan (9/2) would be no surprise as she LOVES this track and has consistently demonstrated that she runs her best races here.  Her second at 12/1 in this race last year gives you confidence that she can run big when not given a big chance.  And finally, 7-Gold Medal Dancer (7/2) earns respect off her victory over Untapable.  Interesting that some of her best efforts were over off tracks, so rain would enhance her chances.

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1 - Tiz Windy (8/1) - The good news is that she's won twice here, and that she parlayed an allowance win over the course last September into her first graded stakes win in the Indiana Oaks in October.  But three subsequent graded tries saw her finish out of the money.  Never been in Grade 1 company before.

2 - My Miss Sophia (6/1) - She kicked off her sophomore season last winter with a second to a good filly, then graduated with authority and won the Grade 2 Gazelle.  Then she came to Louisville where she was a best-of-the-rest second behind champion Untapable in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  Her future seemed bright but then came a huge flop in the Grade 1 Acorn as the 4/5 favorite.  She was shipped to Monmouth for a confidence builder in a listed stakes, only to disappoint again at odds of 1/9.  That was it for the year.  She comes in off a long layoff, but with a series of sensational works for Bill Mott....and she gets top national rider Javier Castellano.  Can she recapture her 3yo form?

3 - Sweet Whiskey (10/1) - This Pletcher-trained filly won the Grade 3 Old Hat at Gulfstream in January 2014 and has yet to get her photo taken since.  Primarily a sprinter she seems out of her element here.  It is noteworthy that she outfinished My Miss Sophia in the one-turn mile Acorn last spring.  Would appear up against it.

4 - America (15/1) - Her connections decide to take a shot as she's never been better.  After one win from her first ten starts she has turned things around with three consecutive victories - two in allowance company and the most recent in a $100K listed stakes.  The last two have resulted in career best figures.  But she'll need to improve multiple lengths to beat the primary win contenders here.

5 - Sheer Drama (4/1) - After a lack-luster start to her career she was switched to a new trainer last spring.  Since moving into the David Fawkes barn she has responded with five sharp efforts from six tries, and you can forgive the one bad effort as it as over a poly surface she probably disliked.  Her most recent was a career best effort in the Grade 3 Royal Delta at Gulfstream where she earned a big 99 Beyer.  Her regular rider, Joe Bravo, has Hall of Fame credentials but has struggled mightily since the beginning of Gulfstream and shows only seven wins from over 150 mounts.  I'm leaning against here.

6 - Interest Free (20/1) - Her last win was in a six furlong sprint, in allowance company, over a sloppy track, at Indiana Downs.  It's a long way from that kind of race to a Grade 1, two turn event at Churchill Downs......no.

7 - Gold Medal Dancer (7/2) - Three very sharp efforts at Oaklawn this spring say she's a legitimate contender with the highlight effort being an upset of champion Untapable in the Grade 3 Azeri.  She saw the queen rebound to beat her with authority last out in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom, but following the race the connections were less than satisfied with the ride she was given.  I look for her to be more forwardly placed today and give her a solid chance in a wide-open event.

8 - Molly Morgan (9/2) - Here are the numbers you need to know:  At tracks OTHER THAN Churchill Downs her record is 15/2-2-6 with earnings of $190K and change; at Churchill Downs her resume reads 13/5-3-2 and with earnings of over $470K - an obvious Horse-for-the-Course!  She was a solid second in this spot last year and considering her affinity to the surface you have to give her a big chance.

9 - Frivolous (6/1) - After chasing Molly Morgan twice with no success at all, she turned the tables at a huge 19/1 in the Grade 2 Falls City Handicap HERE last fall.  She finished dead last off the layoff as the 6/5 favorite in allowance company.  She would surprise me with a win here.

Grade 3 Eight Belles Stakes

4:52 pm - Race 10
Grade 3 Eight Belles Stakes (3yo) - 7 Furlongs - $200K

Top Contenders

It would appear to me that the key to this race is understanding that there are at least five fillies that want the lead.  That sets the table for a stalker, or maybe a closer.  It's hard to look past the fact that trainer Bob Baffert has exceptional numbers with dirt sprinters when he ships in here, but he has TWO fillies in the field.  I think 1-Callback (7/2) is the one to beat.  She's run big before, she has the stalking style, and the addition of blinkers should allow her to relax off the leaders.  You know I LOVE the sizzling bullet work, locally no less, as an indicator of a big effort.  Hard to argue with the perfect 7-for-7 resume of 2-Promise Me Silver (6/1) who will be a juicy price today from off the pace.  And if 7-Lavender Chrissie (10/1) wins at a big price after I listed not one but SIX reasons to bet her, well, I'll be ill!

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1 - Callback (7/2) - This time last year I was kicking off my Churchill Downs Handicapping Project and discovered that trainer Bob Baffert is a 67% winner with sprinters under the Twin Spires.  It led me to a big win on the Derby undercard, and that same angle could be the difference-maker in this spot.  Callback won the $200K Sunland Oaks last time out, only to be DQ'd in a controversial call.  That was going a mile and a sixteenth.  The turn back to seven furlongs is a classic handicapping angle, and the sensational five furlong move over this track in a swift :59.3 says she's loving the surface.

2 - Promise Me Silver (6/1) - She's done nothing wrong with seven wins from seven starts.  She was an added money investment winner for me at Oaklawn but makes her first start in graded company today.  Second off the shelf resulted in a plus six point jump the last time she was in that situation, so a similar jump would give her the kind of number to beat the top one.  Hmmmm.

3 - Ekati's Phaeton (8/1) - Several things to like about this filly, in addition to the 8/1 DRF odds.  First, the pattern......four back BIG WIN at 7/1; then a dud;  three back BIG WIN at 27/1 odds; then a dud last time out.  Today.....uh oh!  She moves out of So Fla Bill Kaplan's barn to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott's barn and top jockey John Velazquez gets on board.  She's already got two graded wins in 2015; would be no surprise for the new connections.

4 - Mizz Money (30/1) - She's never won on dirt and exits four turf events.  In addition she looks outclassed here.  I don't think so.

5 - Fancy and Flashy (15/1) - She was 40/1 in Callback's Sunland Oaks, setting insane fractions for a route race of :21.2 and :45.4.  The fact she held on for fourth tells me that the track was "souped up" to play to speed that day.  Likely to show some early lick, but won't be around late.

6 - Scat Means Go (15/1) - Was a late-running, rallying 3rd in the Sunland Oaks in her first try against winners.  Would be a big jump forward to win today though.

7 - Lavender Chrissie (10/1) - A VERY interesting price play.....first, she has a stalking style which will play well in the pace scenario today; second, she already has a win at his unique seven furlong distance; third, and even more important, she has a blow-out win HERE at Churchill Downs where a win over the surface is a huge advantage; fourth, her lone loss was going a mile here but she was steadied losing all chance;  fifth, she comes in off an authoritative win first off the shelf which saw both the runner-up AND show horses come right back to win; and sixth, Javier Castellano takes the mount.  And all of this at double-digit odds?  Very interesting indeed.

8 - Enchanting Lady (4/1) - She's the "other Baffert" filly and that fact alone makes her very dangerous.  She's only been out four times and you can dismiss one of them, her fifth in the Grade 3 San Ysbel when facing Kentucky Oaks favorite Stellar Wind while trying two turns.  In her three sprint tries she has two wins and a second in her debut - which you can excuse when away slowly AND suffering a 4-wide trip.  Her last-out win number of 98 is a field-best figure.  Not sure what to make of her works - (a) that she doesn't have a local work, and (b) none of them are fast works, which is the normal Baffert training pattern.  Conversely NONE of her works are ever fast.  Hmmmm.

9 - Super Saks (10/1) - She was a solid third in a stakes behind Promise Me Silver - AS A MAIDEN four back.  Dominated her maiden win three back and then tried back-to-back two turn graded events.  Back to sprinting should improve her performance.

10 - Jugni (20/1) - That she broke her maiden HERE, sprinting is a plus.  That it was for a $45K tag is a minus.  Probable pace factor, but little else.

11 - Streetheart (15/1)- Exits a stalk & pounce win at this unique distance in allowance company at Keeneland.  That kind of trip would give her a legitimate chance today.

12 - Taylor S (9/2) - She appears to love the Twin Spires surface as she is the only multiple winner here at The Downs.  She was a good third in the Grade 2 Forward Gal in her 2015 debut off of a two month layoff, then won a listed stakes handily last time out.  The problem appears that all three wins, including both here, came on the front end.  With the wide draw and legitimate speed to her inside, either she has to change her running style today or she will be very compromised to win.