Grade 3 Eight Belles Stakes

4:52 pm - Race 10
Grade 3 Eight Belles Stakes (3yo) - 7 Furlongs - $200K

Top Contenders

It would appear to me that the key to this race is understanding that there are at least five fillies that want the lead.  That sets the table for a stalker, or maybe a closer.  It's hard to look past the fact that trainer Bob Baffert has exceptional numbers with dirt sprinters when he ships in here, but he has TWO fillies in the field.  I think 1-Callback (7/2) is the one to beat.  She's run big before, she has the stalking style, and the addition of blinkers should allow her to relax off the leaders.  You know I LOVE the sizzling bullet work, locally no less, as an indicator of a big effort.  Hard to argue with the perfect 7-for-7 resume of 2-Promise Me Silver (6/1) who will be a juicy price today from off the pace.  And if 7-Lavender Chrissie (10/1) wins at a big price after I listed not one but SIX reasons to bet her, well, I'll be ill!

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1 - Callback (7/2) - This time last year I was kicking off my Churchill Downs Handicapping Project and discovered that trainer Bob Baffert is a 67% winner with sprinters under the Twin Spires.  It led me to a big win on the Derby undercard, and that same angle could be the difference-maker in this spot.  Callback won the $200K Sunland Oaks last time out, only to be DQ'd in a controversial call.  That was going a mile and a sixteenth.  The turn back to seven furlongs is a classic handicapping angle, and the sensational five furlong move over this track in a swift :59.3 says she's loving the surface.

2 - Promise Me Silver (6/1) - She's done nothing wrong with seven wins from seven starts.  She was an added money investment winner for me at Oaklawn but makes her first start in graded company today.  Second off the shelf resulted in a plus six point jump the last time she was in that situation, so a similar jump would give her the kind of number to beat the top one.  Hmmmm.

3 - Ekati's Phaeton (8/1) - Several things to like about this filly, in addition to the 8/1 DRF odds.  First, the pattern......four back BIG WIN at 7/1; then a dud;  three back BIG WIN at 27/1 odds; then a dud last time out.  Today.....uh oh!  She moves out of So Fla Bill Kaplan's barn to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott's barn and top jockey John Velazquez gets on board.  She's already got two graded wins in 2015; would be no surprise for the new connections.

4 - Mizz Money (30/1) - She's never won on dirt and exits four turf events.  In addition she looks outclassed here.  I don't think so.

5 - Fancy and Flashy (15/1) - She was 40/1 in Callback's Sunland Oaks, setting insane fractions for a route race of :21.2 and :45.4.  The fact she held on for fourth tells me that the track was "souped up" to play to speed that day.  Likely to show some early lick, but won't be around late.

6 - Scat Means Go (15/1) - Was a late-running, rallying 3rd in the Sunland Oaks in her first try against winners.  Would be a big jump forward to win today though.

7 - Lavender Chrissie (10/1) - A VERY interesting price play.....first, she has a stalking style which will play well in the pace scenario today; second, she already has a win at his unique seven furlong distance; third, and even more important, she has a blow-out win HERE at Churchill Downs where a win over the surface is a huge advantage; fourth, her lone loss was going a mile here but she was steadied losing all chance;  fifth, she comes in off an authoritative win first off the shelf which saw both the runner-up AND show horses come right back to win; and sixth, Javier Castellano takes the mount.  And all of this at double-digit odds?  Very interesting indeed.

8 - Enchanting Lady (4/1) - She's the "other Baffert" filly and that fact alone makes her very dangerous.  She's only been out four times and you can dismiss one of them, her fifth in the Grade 3 San Ysbel when facing Kentucky Oaks favorite Stellar Wind while trying two turns.  In her three sprint tries she has two wins and a second in her debut - which you can excuse when away slowly AND suffering a 4-wide trip.  Her last-out win number of 98 is a field-best figure.  Not sure what to make of her works - (a) that she doesn't have a local work, and (b) none of them are fast works, which is the normal Baffert training pattern.  Conversely NONE of her works are ever fast.  Hmmmm.

9 - Super Saks (10/1) - She was a solid third in a stakes behind Promise Me Silver - AS A MAIDEN four back.  Dominated her maiden win three back and then tried back-to-back two turn graded events.  Back to sprinting should improve her performance.

10 - Jugni (20/1) - That she broke her maiden HERE, sprinting is a plus.  That it was for a $45K tag is a minus.  Probable pace factor, but little else.

11 - Streetheart (15/1)- Exits a stalk & pounce win at this unique distance in allowance company at Keeneland.  That kind of trip would give her a legitimate chance today.

12 - Taylor S (9/2) - She appears to love the Twin Spires surface as she is the only multiple winner here at The Downs.  She was a good third in the Grade 2 Forward Gal in her 2015 debut off of a two month layoff, then won a listed stakes handily last time out.  The problem appears that all three wins, including both here, came on the front end.  With the wide draw and legitimate speed to her inside, either she has to change her running style today or she will be very compromised to win.

Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes

1:26 pm - Race 6
Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes (3yo) - 8 1/2f -TURF - $150K

Top Contenders

4-My Year Is A Day (30/1) is listed at huge odds by the DRF; will be interested to see her program odds considering her 6-for-7 in the money mark in Europe.  Top connections in a field where I think both the other two win contenders may have "issues."  That would be 3-Sunset Glow (8/5) who has every right to win here considering all three losses were to much, MUCH tougher than this.  But if she scores today she'll have to outrun other pace rivals or change running styles.  1-Quality Rocks was absolutely buried in her one try against the kind of fillies Sunset Glow has been beating, but she's consistent and comes off a Grade 3 win.
 

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1 - Quality Rocks (2/1) - With the exception of the Breeders' Cup against what is arguably the BEST 3yo filly in the country (but she won't be in today's Oaks because Lady Eli is a turf runner), this filly has done little wrong.  She shows three wins and two seconds from five starts and exits a win in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa.

2 - B Rockett (20/1) - A lone maiden win, at Tampa, and low Beyers....no.

3 - Sunset Glow (8/5) - If all you look at are the numbers on her turf resume - 4/1-2-1 - you'd be inclined to dismiss her.  But here's the thing, her first loss was at Royal Ascot in what is arguably Europe's most prestigious week of racing (I mean, duh, a gentleman cannot attend the races there unless he's in a topcoat with tails!);  her other two losses were a second in the Breeders' Cup to the aforementioned Lady Eli and then a third in her latest where she made her 2015 debut.....as did Lady Eli!  Not a fan that she has to have the lead to win, could compromise her chances.

 

4 - My Year Is A Day (30/1) - After a fifth in her Euro maiden debut she's hit the board in six straight, including three wins and two seconds.  Makes her North American debut for top trainer Graham Motion who scores at a 33% clip with those kind at a big $4.59 ROI for every $2 bet.  John Velazquez rides - could be the surprise package.

5 - Lady Zuzu (6/1) - Draw a line through the two dirt tries and you're left with three sharp races.  While she only ran sixth last out, that was going nine furlongs in her first graded try.  The fact she gets first Lasix today could indicate she bled, giving her a second excuse for the late fade.  Interesting.

6 - Feathered (7/2) - She looked to have a bright future after a dominant maiden win at Saratoga, followed by a close third in the Grade 1 Frizette and then a close 4th in the Breeders' Cup.  But two lackluster efforts on dirt to kick off her 2015 campaign sees top trainer Todd Pletcher try the filly on the inner course.  Javier Castellano rides and her Tomlinson ratings for grass are good.  Could run better than you think.

7 - Flying Tipat (20/1) - Two off-the-board finishes in her last two - an allowance try and a small listed stakes at GP - with slow Beyers.  No.

8 - Sweet Swingin (30/1) - Two dirt sprints at GP garnered her big figures.  But everything else leaves a lot to be desired.  First turf without any real solid bloodlines to back the experiment.....no.

Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes

3:02 pm - Race 8
Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes - 8 1/2 Furlongs - $400K

Top Contenders

The first question you have to answer, as in all handicapping puzzles, is this - are the program favorites legitimate win candidates?  If not then you have two big price plays that make a lot of sense here:  3-Neck 'n Neck (8/1) is 4-for-6 here at Churchill Downs and would be no surprise based on his status as a "Horse-for-the-Course;" and 9-Noble Bird (20/1) has won three of his last four as a lightly raced and improving colt for top connections.  But, I do believe the top two are legitimate in here.  2-Prontico (3/1) has earned his stripes with three big speed figures and is clearly the one to beat.  Todd Pletcher runs his stars where they have a chance to win and John Velazquez is a Hall of Fame rider.  But the fact that top North American rider Javier Castellano chooses 7-Honor Code (7/2) over Prontico makes him my top pick today.

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1 - Den's Legacy (15/1) - A resume of 28/3-8-5 and the fact his most recent win came in a non-winners of three LIFETIME stamps him a solid NO in my book in this Grade 2 $400K race.

2 - Prontico (3/1) - If you are willing to draw a line through his 2015 debut when "eased" out of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at odds of 5/1, this guy earns the role of program favorite.  He was third last summer behind the next-out winner of the Grade 1 Travers, then scored in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones.  He was outrun by BC Classic winner Bayern (who freaked in the Gr 2 Pa Derby that day), but bounced back to be a just-miss second HERE in the Grade 1 Clark;  then came the Donn and most recently he romped EASILY in the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland.  That made for three consecutive triple digit Beyers (in races he finished).  Toss in he's a Pletcher runner and you can see why he'll leave the gate favored.

3 - Neck 'n Neck (8/1) - What has to give you hope for the upset if he's your choice is this:  at all other venues he is 1-for-17, here he's 4-for-6!  Uh oh.  He chased Prontico all the way around the Lexington oval last out and was clearly best of the rest without threatening the top one who was loose on the lead.  The price play.

4 - Ride On Curlin (6/1) - He was the "wise guy" play to complete the Preakness exacta behind 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome, but has done little since then.  Not a whole lot to like unless you want to pin your chances on that lone effort.

5 - Tarpy's Surprise (15/1) - He has a maiden win and a solid victory over entry level allowance runners, but has failed in back-to-back nw2x allowance events.....and now he's in a $400K Grade 2?  No, definitively no.

6 - Midnight Cello (9/2) - His two triple digit figures showing in his pp's say he "could" win this, but the fact that they came in an allowance test and in a listed stakes at GPW (formerly Calder) says to me those figures are inflated.  Certainly not worth considering at single digit odds.

7 - Honor Code (7/2) - Perhaps the one key to the race is the fact that Javier Castellano rides for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey here.  Not just that Castellano is here, but he fact he is NOT on Prontico.  In six of the ten career starts for that guy Castellano was up (and in three other starts he was in the race onboard top Pletcher colt Constitution).  After a decisive win in the Gr 3 Ben Ali he still opts to ride here.  Honor Code was considered a legitimate Triple Crown threat last spring before going to he shelf.  A big win in a comeback sprint led to his entry in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap.  I was there that day when he was SO far back his little chicklet was out of the TV monitor on the far turn.  But with a sensational rally he was up in time going a one-turn mile.  Today he gets to stretch out and I think he stamps his case as a legitimate top handicap horse here.

8 - Call Me George (8/1) - After a well-beaten third at 5/2 odds in allowance company to kick off 2015 he surprised the Grade 2 New Orleans field at 22/1 last time out.  Prior to the 5/2 loss his previous four losses were at 20/1, 20/1, 30/1, and 30/1. Want to bet him at single digit odds?  I don't.

9 - Noble Bird (20/1) - He's lightly raced (only eight starts) and has won three of his last four.  IF the top two win contenders don't fire, he'd be the one I'd be most likely to take a shot with based on the connections of trainer Mark Casse and owner John Oxley.

10 - Cougar Ridge (10/1) - Very interesting that he was claimed for $62.5K last time out and the connections put him into a Grade 2, $400K spot.  Hmmmm.  Disconcerting that the new trainer is 1-for-19 with horses first off the claim.  Ouch.

 

March 28 - Florida Derby Day

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Derby Day Recap

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



The Grade 1 Florida Derby

Race 14:  The Grade 1 Florida Derby - Nine Furlongs

Sawyer's Mickey (30/1)  Well, the good news is that this colt has run competitively in every start and hit the board in four of seven tries including a strong third in a $100K stakes last time out.  The bad news is that he is a 7-time maiden!  He would be the biggest surprise of all if he were to win today.

Fellowship (15/1)  If you are one of the rare handicappers who is going to go against one of the two obvious favorites in this year's Derby then this is probably the most likely upset candidate in the field.  In BOTH the Grade 2 Holy Bull and Grade 2 Fountain of Youth he was running late to get third place money behind Mohaymen.  His breeding would suggest that he'll enjoy the added distance of nine furlongs today and if something goes wrong with the top two and/or they wilt late, he'll be the one to fear in deep stretch.  Note his biggest win to date came in a $500K race, HERE, at 12/1 odds. 

Majesto (20/1) There are two things to like about this longshot.  First of all, he gets Javier Castellano, and ANY horse at Gulfstream with the top rider on board must deserve at least a second look.  The second thing is that he ran sharply in a December maiden event here, so much so that he was the 9/5 favorite over Todd Pletcher's Gettysburg in his next start.  But Gettysburg won handily and moved on to stakes company.  Majesto should be right behind the early leaders and waiting to make his move on the turn at a big price.

Nyquist (6/5)  The 2015 champion 2-year-old is a perfect 6-for-6 and it's been the plan from the end of last season to run here in the Florida Derby.  Everything has gone to plan and his works have been sharp.  The thing I fear most about him is that many people, including me on two occasions, have said "he can't win today."  And he's consistently done that.  He won his first three starts in sprint races and most felt he couldn't stretch to two turns - but he did and won the Grade 1 Frontrunner at Santa Anita prior to the Breeders' Cup.  Then handicappers said he didn't beat that much, he'd never be able to ship across the country to Keeneland and take on "real" horses to win the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile - and he did.  Now many doubters say he can't win the Florida Derby off of a single sprint prep or that he can't get the nine furlong distance.  Those are the questions today.  To be honest, when I read that this was the plan, I first understood trainer Doug O'Neill to say that it was the timing of five weeks between today's race and the Kentucky Derby that he liked.  But then it came to light that because Nyquist was sold at the Florida Fasig-Tipton sale he is eligible for a $1 MILLION bonus if he wins the Derby today.  I do not believe they are coming here to run as a prep race, but that they legitimately have come here with winning on their mind.  I firmly believe that turning for home it will be Nyquist on the inside and Mohaymen on the outside laying it down to the wire.  He should be placed ahead of Mohaymen in the early running and you MIGHT consider this fact significant - he's NEVER let a horse pass him once he got in front of them!

Copingaway (50/1)  Seriously, you have to wonder what his connections were thinking about entering here.  First, he's already been out thirteen times with but a single victory; second, eight of those starts, including his lone win, have been on the turf;  third, in both stakes tries (both on turf) he was well beaten; and lastly, he enters this $1 Million race off of a ten-length loss in a claiming event, sprinting.  N-O.

Chovanes (20/1)  Broke his maiden in his last start, impressively as my top choice on February 26th.  But that was a $50K maiden claimer going a one-turn mile.  He was well beaten by today's rival Majesto - who is 30/1 - and that doesn't bode well for his chances.  He may play a big part in the race outcome however as he appears to have some speed which will NOT allow Nyquist to get an easy trip on the front end.

Takeittothedge (20/1) A month ago he debuted going seven furlongs in a Maiden Special event here.  He ran away very impressively that day and trainer Dale Romans was quoted after the post position draw that he believes his horse has talent and that he wouldn't want him to run a big race in allowance company if he can run that race in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  Should be part of the early pace scenario.

Fashionable Freddy (30/1) He is another that could be part of the early pace picture.  On February 10th I was at Gulfstream to see Todd Pletcher's colt, Battery run.  In that race 'Freddy set the pace to the far turn before Battery blew by to win convincingly.  Freddy faded to be fourth beaten some seven plus lengths.  Battery came back in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby last weekend and showed little.  That doesn't say much for Freddy's chances today I'm afraid.

Mohaymen (1/1)  Here he is - what you think of the 2016 Florida Derby starts with what you think of this guy.  He is a perfect five-for-five and the current Kentucky Derby - not Florida Derby, but Kentucky Derby favorite.  As you look at his record on paper you might be fooled by the fact that none of his wins were by devastating margins.  But if you had seen him run, that's because he's been SO much better than his rivals that he wins without ever being asked.  His win in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, here in January, was breath taking as he inhaled the field without ever taking a deep breath despite coming off of a lengthy layoff.  He disposed of Todd Pletcher's highly regarded Zulu in the Fountain of Youth last time out and was so impressive that Pletcher altered his plans to run his colt in this race!  But the most impressive thing about that win over Zulu in the FOY was that if you are a careful student of the game, it was obvious in the training pattern of conditioner Kiaran McLaughlin that they didn't work Mohaymen very hard at all for that race.  So his win, over an ultra-talented colt came on sheer talent without being pointed for a big effort.  The only knock on Mohaymen is that he's never seen a rival like Nyquist.  What happens when he ranges up and is ready to run by and Nyquist resists?  We won't know until late in the day on Saturday.  The advantage the big son of champion Tapit has over the 2015 BC champion is that Mohaymen has already won going today's nine furlongs - AND has two wins over this track.

Isofass (30/1) Well, he's lightly raced and after dueling with Fashionable Freddy in the Battery race previously mentioned, he did NOT fade but held onto third against Battery.  He should be stalking the leaders into the far turn, but on paper he's never run fast enough to compete with the top two.

The Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks

Race 7:  The Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks (3yo):  Eight and one-half Furlongs

Paola Queen must first overcome the fact that she just broke her maiden last time out.  Typically a thoroughbred's first start against winners is their most difficult race, and Paola Queen takes on a Grade 2 field as well.  But, for some reason she's enticed Javier Castellano to ride today and that alone makes her worth a second look.

Double Entendre Here's what we know about this filly - NOTHING!  She broke her maiden in ultra-impressive style last time out around two turns, that's good.  But it was at Sam Houston which is several cuts below the quality of a Gulfstream maiden race, much less a Grade 2 like this is today.  She goes into a new barn, gets a new rider, and goes a new distance over a new track.  Way to many "news" for me to consider. 

Go Maggie Go Is another who just broke her maiden, in her debut.  But unlike the filly just to her inside she did it HERE and it looks like that was a pretty strong field she beat as they were well strung out.  Like the fact that she sat patiently off the pace and then blew by with authority.  Could be good enough in a field that lacks a legitimate superstar.

Mo' Green was a 17/1 upset winner going today's distance of a mile and a sixteenth last time out in her second start.  After the abysmal debut you have to wonder which filly shows up today.  First time winners today after running a slow race.

Gomo sports the purple and white silks of owner Paul Reddam, and if you don't know what that means, it's that she's from the same owner, trainer (and jockey) as today's Derby candidate, Nyquist.  The fact that trainer Doug O'Neill put her on the plane with his champion colt to run here instead of staying home to run in the Santa Anita Oaks may be a tip of the hand as to what they think of her ability.  In her last two dirt starts she was second best in a Grade 2 and when last seen was the winner of the prestigious Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland.  But that was back in October.  Can she fire her best shot today off a long layoff after shipping across the country?

Hold On Momma broke her maiden in December at Laurel, a cut below Gulfstream Park, and has since run fourth twice - the most recent her 3yo debut in a Tampa Bay allowance.  Would be a surprise.

Off The Tracks On paper she's the filly to beat.  Nobody must have been more delighted than Todd Pletcher when it was announced that unbeated superstar filly Cathryn Sophia was passing today's Oaks to run in next week's Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland.  That filly would have been my "BET of the Day" had she run today.  Instead Pletcher gets to send out his unbeaten filly into a Grade 2 where it would appear she has only one legitimate foe to worry about.  Off The Tracks debuted here last June with a decisive win as the 8/5 favorite.  That doesn't tell us much as the summer stock here is not world class quality like the winter runners.  But her local trainer sent her to the mecca of horse racing, Saratoga, to try the Grade 3 Schylerville on Opening Day and she won!  And won by daylight!  She was sent to the bench and wasn't seen again until February 21 when she won an overnight stakes race impressively.  Those facts would make her a legitimate favorite.  But after that victory she was moved from the local conditioner's barn into the care of top trainer Todd Pletcher.  I've seen oh-so-many times runners make their first start for "the man" and run lights out - it's almost as though he wants to make a point that the owners made the right decision to send him their thoroughbred.  Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez gets the call today.