The Grade 1 Florida Derby

Race 14:  The Grade 1 Florida Derby - Nine Furlongs

Sawyer's Mickey (30/1)  Well, the good news is that this colt has run competitively in every start and hit the board in four of seven tries including a strong third in a $100K stakes last time out.  The bad news is that he is a 7-time maiden!  He would be the biggest surprise of all if he were to win today.

Fellowship (15/1)  If you are one of the rare handicappers who is going to go against one of the two obvious favorites in this year's Derby then this is probably the most likely upset candidate in the field.  In BOTH the Grade 2 Holy Bull and Grade 2 Fountain of Youth he was running late to get third place money behind Mohaymen.  His breeding would suggest that he'll enjoy the added distance of nine furlongs today and if something goes wrong with the top two and/or they wilt late, he'll be the one to fear in deep stretch.  Note his biggest win to date came in a $500K race, HERE, at 12/1 odds. 

Majesto (20/1) There are two things to like about this longshot.  First of all, he gets Javier Castellano, and ANY horse at Gulfstream with the top rider on board must deserve at least a second look.  The second thing is that he ran sharply in a December maiden event here, so much so that he was the 9/5 favorite over Todd Pletcher's Gettysburg in his next start.  But Gettysburg won handily and moved on to stakes company.  Majesto should be right behind the early leaders and waiting to make his move on the turn at a big price.

Nyquist (6/5)  The 2015 champion 2-year-old is a perfect 6-for-6 and it's been the plan from the end of last season to run here in the Florida Derby.  Everything has gone to plan and his works have been sharp.  The thing I fear most about him is that many people, including me on two occasions, have said "he can't win today."  And he's consistently done that.  He won his first three starts in sprint races and most felt he couldn't stretch to two turns - but he did and won the Grade 1 Frontrunner at Santa Anita prior to the Breeders' Cup.  Then handicappers said he didn't beat that much, he'd never be able to ship across the country to Keeneland and take on "real" horses to win the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile - and he did.  Now many doubters say he can't win the Florida Derby off of a single sprint prep or that he can't get the nine furlong distance.  Those are the questions today.  To be honest, when I read that this was the plan, I first understood trainer Doug O'Neill to say that it was the timing of five weeks between today's race and the Kentucky Derby that he liked.  But then it came to light that because Nyquist was sold at the Florida Fasig-Tipton sale he is eligible for a $1 MILLION bonus if he wins the Derby today.  I do not believe they are coming here to run as a prep race, but that they legitimately have come here with winning on their mind.  I firmly believe that turning for home it will be Nyquist on the inside and Mohaymen on the outside laying it down to the wire.  He should be placed ahead of Mohaymen in the early running and you MIGHT consider this fact significant - he's NEVER let a horse pass him once he got in front of them!

Copingaway (50/1)  Seriously, you have to wonder what his connections were thinking about entering here.  First, he's already been out thirteen times with but a single victory; second, eight of those starts, including his lone win, have been on the turf;  third, in both stakes tries (both on turf) he was well beaten; and lastly, he enters this $1 Million race off of a ten-length loss in a claiming event, sprinting.  N-O.

Chovanes (20/1)  Broke his maiden in his last start, impressively as my top choice on February 26th.  But that was a $50K maiden claimer going a one-turn mile.  He was well beaten by today's rival Majesto - who is 30/1 - and that doesn't bode well for his chances.  He may play a big part in the race outcome however as he appears to have some speed which will NOT allow Nyquist to get an easy trip on the front end.

Takeittothedge (20/1) A month ago he debuted going seven furlongs in a Maiden Special event here.  He ran away very impressively that day and trainer Dale Romans was quoted after the post position draw that he believes his horse has talent and that he wouldn't want him to run a big race in allowance company if he can run that race in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  Should be part of the early pace scenario.

Fashionable Freddy (30/1) He is another that could be part of the early pace picture.  On February 10th I was at Gulfstream to see Todd Pletcher's colt, Battery run.  In that race 'Freddy set the pace to the far turn before Battery blew by to win convincingly.  Freddy faded to be fourth beaten some seven plus lengths.  Battery came back in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby last weekend and showed little.  That doesn't say much for Freddy's chances today I'm afraid.

Mohaymen (1/1)  Here he is - what you think of the 2016 Florida Derby starts with what you think of this guy.  He is a perfect five-for-five and the current Kentucky Derby - not Florida Derby, but Kentucky Derby favorite.  As you look at his record on paper you might be fooled by the fact that none of his wins were by devastating margins.  But if you had seen him run, that's because he's been SO much better than his rivals that he wins without ever being asked.  His win in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, here in January, was breath taking as he inhaled the field without ever taking a deep breath despite coming off of a lengthy layoff.  He disposed of Todd Pletcher's highly regarded Zulu in the Fountain of Youth last time out and was so impressive that Pletcher altered his plans to run his colt in this race!  But the most impressive thing about that win over Zulu in the FOY was that if you are a careful student of the game, it was obvious in the training pattern of conditioner Kiaran McLaughlin that they didn't work Mohaymen very hard at all for that race.  So his win, over an ultra-talented colt came on sheer talent without being pointed for a big effort.  The only knock on Mohaymen is that he's never seen a rival like Nyquist.  What happens when he ranges up and is ready to run by and Nyquist resists?  We won't know until late in the day on Saturday.  The advantage the big son of champion Tapit has over the 2015 BC champion is that Mohaymen has already won going today's nine furlongs - AND has two wins over this track.

Isofass (30/1) Well, he's lightly raced and after dueling with Fashionable Freddy in the Battery race previously mentioned, he did NOT fade but held onto third against Battery.  He should be stalking the leaders into the far turn, but on paper he's never run fast enough to compete with the top two.