2017 Florida Derby

6:40 - Race 14

Grade 1 - $1 Million Xpressbet

FLORIDA DERBY

1 1/8 Mile

State of Honor (8/1) If you are looking at strictly his past performances you like him a lot more than when taking him in comparison to the rest of the field.  He was second in a photo finish here in the first big race for three-year-olds of the year, the Mucho Macho Man.  Then he went to Tampa and was third behind the unbeaten current Kentucky Derby favorite McCracken and Todd Pletcher's Tapwrit.  Then last out he was the pace setter in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.  He held on to beat seven of the eight others but was no match for Tapwrit.  Today he takes the blinkers off which typically would be done to allow him to relax off the lead.  However, he's drawn the rail and that gives him little alternatives than to shoot to the front and show some front running/pace pressing speed.  That will probably just help set the table for one of the top two favorites.

Talk Logistics (30/1) He was an admirable third in the Mucho Macho Man to start the year but was a nowhere-to-be-found fourth in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, and an equally distant fourth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.  Would be a big surprise to see him run fast enough to win this $1 Million race.

Charlie the Greek (50/1) Five of his last six starts have been in claiming races for a moderate $35K tag.  What possibly could make his connections think it was a good idea to step up to a Grade 1 $1 Million race.  NO.....he's this race's "bet bet" to NOT win.

Always Dreaming (4/1) Of the seventy-five plus horses I've analyzed today for the nine stakes races this one is THE MOST intriguing.  Trainer Todd Pletcher is absolutely loaded with three-year-old colts who all have aspirations of running for the roses on the first Saturday in May.  Nearly all of Pletcher's best ones debut here in the winter but for some reason Always Dreaming was sent to Tampa for his three-year-old debut.  You couldn't fool the handicappers that day as he went wire to wire on that Wednesday afternoon drawing off by nearly a dozen lengths as a much the best winner.  Should have been a big neon sign that he would win as jockey John Velazquez made the trip to Tampa instead of riding her that afternoon.  Next time out I had Always Dreaming - and that day I made these remarks, "I next to never bet last-out maiden winners vs. allowance company for the first time; and I next to never bet Tampa shippers to Gulfstream, least of all a last-out maiden winner at Tampa to face Gulfstream allowance rivals."  But on that day in the Saturday I did - as did nearly every other bettor on the grounds as Always Dreaming went wire-to-wire as easily best.  But the pace that day - oh my, was painfully, excruciatingly slow as no one and I mean NO ONE challenged him throughout the running.  I've been waiting for a month to see Pletcher's Battalion Runner run in the Florida Derby but when I read this week that Pletcher had this colt and Battalion Runner both under consideration for the race and would nearly certainly scratch Battalion Runner, I was very disappointed.  But, hey, who am I to argue with Todd Pletcher?

Quinientos (50/1) Sixth beaten nearly fifteen lengths at 200/1 in the Fountain of Youth by today's favorite.  THIS would be a headline-making win if he pulled off the shocking upset.

Coleman Rocky (30/1) His first two dirt starts saw him lose by a combined 33 lengths.  Then two turf starts, including his lone win.  But in an off-the-turf event he was a late running third giving his connections dreams of winning the Derby.  He'll be 50/1 despite having top jockey Jose Ortiz.  Not as big as a surprise as the one inside of him, but would be a shocker.

Unbridled Holiday (30/1) To his credit he was third with little chance to catch Always Dreaming in his last, his first start off a maiden win vs. state-bred competition.  But the barn is 3-for-45 and he'd have to make a major, MAJOR improvement today to challenge even the non-favored Pletcher runner.

Impressive Edge (12/1) After back-to-back losses as a two-year-old for trainer Steve Asmussen he was moved to trainer Dale Romans' barn.  He immediately responded in his first start as a 3yo to win going away.  The Pletcher barn had the runner-up that day, Patch, who came right back to win and is entered with a fair chance in today's $1 Million Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.  Impressive Edge went in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes next and probably was compromised not only by facing first time winners, but also racing at a distance not exactly his best despite the maiden win.  He came back to dominate a seven furlong entry-level allowance while earning a speed figure way below what it will take to win here today, but as a $400K sales purchase his connections are willing to try the "big boys" today.  Not without a chance.

Battalion Runner (3/1) At the beginning of the week it was announced that despite being owned by Florida Panthers owner Vincent Viola and running here over a track he's a perfect 2-for-2, this Pletcher colt would make his next start in the Grade 1 $1 Million Santa Anita Derby.  It was further announced he'd be entered here just in case something went awry with Always Dreaming.  Then two days ago it was announced that the connections didn't want to go all the way to California and would enter here, but the plan is to send Battalion Runner to the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby on April 18th.  Now that Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion Classic Empire has indicated he will run in Arkansas I wonder if that makes the Pletcher camp have a change of heart?  In BOTH starts he was my "BET of the WEEK" - I think he's ultra talented.

Three Rules (8/1) This guy owned Gulfstream last summer going unbeaten while crushing his fellow juveniles and sweeping the Florida Sire Stakes.  Thought to be good enough to take on the best of his generation he was sent to So Cal to run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  No where to be found that day.  Came back here and kicked off his 3yo season in the Grade 2 Swale he pressed the pace and took the lead at the top of the stretch only to be caught late by a lightly raced closer who benefited from the race flow to score at a nice price (as my top choice!).  He had high hopes in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and was clear on the front end heading into the far turn but he was inhaled by today's favorite as he faded to third.  Not sure if the connections really believe he can win, but he gets a chance to redeem himself and he's the clear speed of the race.  Gulfstream is typically kind to frontrunners, especially on big stakes days like this.  Dangerous if he can last to the wire, but it would appear a minor share is the most likely outcome.

Gunnevera (9/5) He's one of the highest rated three-year-olds in the country for the Kentucky Derby based on his 2yo resume and his very impressive win in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.  As a deep closer he needs a fast pace and racing luck.  And you have to factor in that the connections KNOW he does not have to win the Florida Derby to get to the Kentucky Derby....if you were the connections wouldn't your primary target be THE Kentucky Derby?  Sure, let's win the Florida Derby if we can, but if there's trouble or you have to ask for his absolute best, don't - that would be my instructions.  The day I want my 3yo star to run his heart out would be under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.  For me as well I thought he was compromised in the Gr 2 Holy Bull when Irish War Cry coasted on a loose lead, then was completely set up in the Gr 2 Ftn of Youth when there was a very fast pace for him to rally into.  Today I don't think he gets the same kind of set up.  Considering the race flow and that he's primary target is the Kentucky Derby I look for him to run well, but not win.  But then again, he may simply be way too god for these and score because he's just the fastest horse and most talented horse.