Gulfstream Park Oaks

4:57 pm - Race 11
Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks

$250,000 - 8 1/2 furlongs

Conquest Sorceror (15/1) This filly is one of the few running in a stakes race this afternoon that I give virtually no chance to.  First, it's going to take a speed figure in the low 80s or better to win this $250K Grade 2 event which will propel the winner into the $1 Million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday of May.  This one has never run faster than a 65 - and THAT was the only time she's ever cleared the 50 plateau!  In addition she's a maiden still seeking her first win.  It IS interesting that she moves to a new barn today and they choose this spot.  

Tequilita (5/1) Toss this filly's troubled debut and all you have left on the page are excellent efforts.  She won her maiden at the tough Keeneland fall meet as the 6/5 favorite while beating a next out winner.  She tried stakes company at Laurel and proved the popular winner of the Sunny's Halo at six furlongs as the even money favorite.  That was mid-November and she shipped her for her 2017 debut while trying the one-turn mile of the Grade 2 Forward Gal.  The crowd dismissed her at odds of nearly 15/1 but she ran down graded stakes winning favorite Pretty City Dancer that day to come in here as a logical winner.  She tries two turns for the first time but as a daughter of Union Rags, a champion of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, she's got the bloodlines to appreciate the added ground today.  Top Gulfstream rider Luis Saez rides back today after guiding her to that Forward Gal upset victory.

Summer Luck (4/1) This filly is bound to improve as the distances extend throughout the year.  And that probably is a good way to view her three-year-old races.  After winning the one-turn mile MSW at Churchill in the fall to conclude her 2yo season, she debuted here in the six furlong Old Hat Stakes.  She was a late-running third that day.  Stretched to seven furlongs she was a sharp 4th, closing from eighth in the Grade 2 Forward Gal behind today's rival Tequilita.  Last time out she got the one-turn mile of the Grade 2 Davona Dale and was making a winning move when forced to alter course in the stretch but still was third, beaten only 3/4 of a length.  Finally today she gets to go two turns and if she gets in gear soon enough she can run down the field before they reach the first finish line of the short stretch here today.  Note that Summer Luck is cross-entered for the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks in New Orleans today - which may be interesting.

Spring Mist (10/1) She took four starts before breaking her maiden, and all of them at Tampa Bay Downs.  Typically the competition is a notch below that of Gulfstream, especially in the three-year-old divisions so you have to be suspicious that she can step up from a MSW win at Tampa to beat a Grade 2 field at Gulfstream.  If you're a fan of Javier Castellano, you'll get him at a price on this one today.

Jordan's Henny (8/1) Re-read the comments above on Spring Mist.  Here's the PERFECT example of how the rule in horse racing is "there are no rules!"  Jordan's Henny had run six times in maiden company without a win until finally breaking through two races back.  Off that maiden win - seeing the connection now? - she was entered in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and facing an odds-on favorite.  At 19/1 she battled the entire way and finished second beaten a mere half length by a filly who had already won in stakes company.  As good as any other, she projects to be the leader for as far as she can take them.

Salty (3/1) If you are looking for the best, last-race speed figure, look no further.  Salty debuted here in February and was closing ground rapidly to miss by just a neck to a Todd Pletcher filly that was the even money favorite.  She returned off that effort and ran away from her maiden special rivals while traveling seven furlongs to earn that big speed figure.  She stretches out two turns today and looks every bit the win contender.

Nonna Bella (7/2) I hate to start off the upside for this filly with negative remarks about another - my Mom always said if you don't have something nice to say then don't say anything at all - but I have to tell you that as good as Salty looks, she was 24/1 in that debut behind an even money Pletcher filly - that filly was Nonna Bella!  She came back off her maiden win to beat allowance rivals as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite.  The speed figure she earned in her win was 80, compared to her debut maiden win of 83.  What to make of that compared to Salty's improved figure?  I wouldn't put a lot of stock into it as I would say that she was not primed for her peak performance nor asked for her absolute best when winning that last out event as Pletcher probably had this one circled on the calendar for her next start.  It's an added plus that top NY owner Michael Repole runs a lot of his best horses with Todd Pletcher and nearly all the good ones have jockey John Velazquez in the saddle - the three are reunited again today on this homebred daughter of champion Stay Thirsty - who also was trained by Pletcher and ridden by Velazquez.  I also think that it's a very positive sign that the filly who tested Nonna Bella in that last out allowance win shipped to the Fair Grounds and will run as one of the principals in the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks this afternoon.

Shezaprado (50/1) After losing by nearly fifteen lengths in her dirt debut for a modest $30K she's raced exclusively on the turf since....all in events that carried claiming conditions.  The move to the main track and up into a graded stakes makes little sense to me.  A rank outsider.

Modacious (6/1) While I am not a big fan of this filly winning the race, especially from a wide post with the quick run to the first turn, she is not without positive merits.  She won her debut at Parx, but then in her So Fla debut she was a close second behind the very promising Todd Pletcher filly Ghalia.  All Ghalia did after that win was ship to Arizona and win the Sunland Park Oaks.  Modacious dueled on the lead in the Grade 2 Davona Dale last out in her first try beyond six furlongs.  She faded late to be fourth but often times "second time long" is a strong win angle, so her second start at a distance of ground might produce a big effort here.