The Sanibel Stakes

3:23 pm - Race 8
The Sanibel Stakes

$100,000 - 8 furlongs TURF

Conquest Hardcandy (5/1) Showed MONSTROUS improvement when allowed to stretch out to two turns and get on the inner turf course in her second start after debuting in a Belmont dirt sprint.  Her Beyer made a gigantic move forward when nearly doubling from that 41 first start figure to an 82 when surprising a maiden turf field here, winning at odds of 35/1.  The first start off a maiden win is often the most difficult transition for a thoroughbred, so that she led the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride field into the stretch while setting fast fractions from the widest of seven posts has to be considered a positive despite her late fade.  "Early speed, class drop" has consistently produced winners for me throughout the 20,000 races I've played over the last decade plus of handicapping.  Journeyman Edgar Zayas is a question mark for me.  Certainly looks like the one to catch, especially from the rail draw.

Accepting (7/2) The story on Accepting is nearly identical to that of the rail drawn filly.  Debuted on the dirt and showed little; second start was going long on the turf and she more than doubled her speed figure (37-to-71) when upsetting a Belmont turf sprint at 10/1.  Showed speed into the stretch in her first try vs. winners, like the rail filly in a stakes race.  But unlike the one inside her, Accepting has run twice vs. allowance foes here this winter.  How you evaluate her flat finish vs. 2nd level allowance fillies as the 8/5 favorite last time out will determine if you do or don't like her chances today.  Third off the layoff is often a runner's penultimate performance and she gets a strong rider upgrade to Paco Lopez today.  Like her chances but I'd be reluctant to take her at a short price.

Colorincolonel (15/1) Because it's horse racing and anything can happen I try to give something positive about everyone on Florida Derby Day.  But I just cannot here :(  The barn is a woeful 3-for-108; the horse is an equally sorry 1-for-18 in her career.  She's only been on the turf twice, beaten a combined 20 lengths in those two efforts.  It's a big N-O for me.

Scheme (8/1) Might be the most interesting filly in the race and if sent to the post at odds of anything close to those offered by the Daily Racing Form here she might be a good price play.  She debuted here in December and not many gave her a chance, sending her off at odds of 27/1.  As they approached the far turn she 7th in a field of twelve.  She fell back to 10th on the turn then exploded through the lane, splitting horses to get to the front and draw off as easily best!  Since then she's worked sensationally and just might be this good.  When horses workout in the morning a workout of five furlongs with a time of one minute is considered a sign of a horse ready for a superb racing effort.  In three of Scheme's morning works she ran a bullet (best workout of the morning) going five furlongs in a sizzling :59.2; produced another bullet work in a flat 1 minute for five furlongs; and most recently had a best of 22 bullet work and a smoking :59 flat for five furlongs.  She is obviously ready to roll today.  The barn has had a big meet with 27% winners from just 11 starters.  One to watch.  If she takes a lot of money, especially early it would be a sign to me that "somebody knows something!"

Happy Mesa (6/1) After debuting for a modest $40K in a dirt sprint at Laurel in Maryland, trainer Graham Motion allowed this daughter of champion Sky Mesa to try the inner course where her bloodlines indicated she'd love the grassy surface.  She responded to win the Selima Stakes sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs.  Her Beyer figure leaped from 50 to 74, an indication that she's got immense talent on the turf.  With the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf in mind Motion sent his filly to Santa Anita and entered her in the prep race for that Grade 1 Championship in the one mile Surfer Girl Stakes.  Going two turns for the first time after having shipped across the country she responded with a late running second despite the fact her rider lost the whip.  She was a big 50/1 in the Breeders' Cup event finishing 12th beaten nine lengths.  She stayed out west and tried the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante at Del Mar (where this fall's Breeders' Cup will be - and I have tickets!  WHOOO HOOOO!).  A troubled trip resulted in a disappointing 7th place finish.  Back home to Maryland to regroup for her sophomore season she made her 2017 debut in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes.  She was 30/1 that day but top rider Florent Geroux had her in good position for a winning bid when she was forced to steady in traffic in the stretch.  When finally able to get running room she closed with a rush to be fourth, beaten less than two lengths.  The move to this listed event should be right up her alley.  And a hidden indicator of her improvement is this.....in that BC effort she was beaten about 8 lengths by a quality filly named Coasted who was 2nd in the BC; in the Gr 3 H'bride race Coasted was again 2nd, but only a length in front of Happy Mesa.  Her workout on March 25th was a very sharp :59.2 five furlong move telling me she's primed for a huge effort on the drop in class.

Fancy Kitten (4/1) It's horse racing so anything can happen; and this is lightly raced three-year-olds where truly anything can happen, especially going long on the turf.  But it's a real stretch to support this daughter of champion Kitten's Joy.  The barn is struggling with a 1-for-29 mark this year; Joe Bravo is only 8-for-149, a 5% win average; AND she's still a maiden (has yet to win a race).  If she's 4/1 as the Daily Racing Form predicts at post time then TRULY somebody knows something that I do not.  

Take A Deep Breath (10/1) Who ever makes the morning line odds for the Daily Racing Form has some 'spaing to do here......how do you make a MAIDEN runner like Fancy Kitten 4/1, while a European import like this filly 10/1?  Euros are widely agreed to be more talented than their North American rivals and this one had a win in her native Ireland then was second in a Group 3 race!  Came to the US and was 2nd, beaten a neck as the even money favorite in Tampa for trainer Tom Proctor who's winning at a big nearly 30% mark this winter.  Ronnie Allen is a good Tampa rider, but today Proctor gets the services of one of the rising stars in racing in Jose Ortiz.  Look out my friends.

Grizzel (12/1) She's another Euro import and that alone makes her a win candidate.  But unlike the filly to her inside this one has already been out ten times with only two wins.  And her efforts in Group events were not good.  And perhaps the biggest worry is she's never done anything but sprint, including a fourth in a turf sprint here at 4/1 odds.  That was disappointing enough that the rider, Jose Ortiz, sees fit to jump to another.

Taperge (6/1) If you're making your pick based on trainer-jockey connections then you are going to land here.  It's hard to argue against ANY Chad Brown turf runner, but he's especially effective with fillies on the grass, like this.  Nationally where ever he runs, if Brown has a good one in a stakes it's nearly always Javier Castellano who rides, and that's true today.  In her debut she was a well bet 9/2 but showed nothing over the Aqueduct inner turf in early November.  But making her So Fla debut in early January she trailed though a very slow pace, but had enough talent to carry Castellano into the winner's circle as the tepid 3/1 post time favorite.  In her first try vs. winners she again caught a slow pace and ran closer to the pace which might have compromised her late kick, but she was still good enough to finish a best-of-the-rest second.  And it's noteworthy that she outran today's rival Accepting (who's listed at shorter odds despite having more losses and running not nearly as well last time out) in that spot while making her first try vs. winners while Accepting was making her third try vs. winners.  The faster the pace up front the better her chances it would seem.

From Ria To Riches (20/1) I'm not sure what to make of her showing up here.  She's NEVER been on the grass and all of her racing prior to the most recent was at the "lower level" tracks of Mountaineer in West Virginia and Thistledowns in Cleveland.  Her connections sent her here to try the Grade 2 Davona Dale where she finished tenth at odds of 196/1.  The rider is 2-for-84 and she's stuck out wide in the gate.  Would be a HUGE surprise.