The Sir Shackelton Stakes

2:53 pm - Race 7

The Sir Shackelton Stakes
$100,000 - 7 furlongs

Grand Billi (6/1) It's not hard to make a case for this five-year-old here.  First, at this difficult and demanding seven furlong sprint distance he's got a win and two seconds from four starts.  Secondly, he won a Grade 3 ON THIS TRACK and AT THIS DISTANCE!  Third, he's twice raced competitively against two of the best sprinters in the country when fifth behind XY Jet last February and 5th behind BC Sprint champion Runhappy in the 2015 Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga.  AND you get Javier Castellano in the saddle today who's ridden him to BOTH of his last two wins.  So what's NOT to like you ask?  If you factor in trainer numbers, it's worrisome that the barn here is only 2-for-60 at the meeting and overall in 2017 they are 1-for-56.  If you don't have your calculator, that 2%.....yes TWO percent.  You could say that he needed his last when pressing the pace early before fading to French Quarter (who's just to his outside today) and you could say that Castellano back on board will make a difference.  You could say that.....

French Quarter (9/2) He is the quickest of those drawn inside and he almost certainly will take them to the far turn, if not farther.  You have to take a second look when realizing that trainer David Fawkes claimed this one for a big $62K last time out and brings him back in a stakes race on Florida Derby Day!  He's won two in a row with jockey Nik Juarez on board and despite the owner/trainer change Juarez agrees to ride back today.  The concern I have is that of the twelve races showing in his past performances NINE of them were at six furlongs or shorter.  And the three times he ventured beyond three-quarters of a mile (like today), he faded in ALL of them.  Looks to be in front early and then if you have a ticket on him you'll be screaming, "WHERE'S THE WIRE!" as they turn for home.

Bluegrass Singer (7/2) Trainer Dale Romans typically spends the winter here getting his horses ready for big efforts at his home base of Churchill Downs in the spring.  And "the book" on Romans at Gulfstream has traditionally been to wait until it's late in the meet and his horses have a race or two under their belt as they begin to peak towards their Louisiville spring/summer campaign.  But this year Romans has sent out winners throughout the meeting and boasts a strong 21% win average.  One of those was this guy who earned a career best 102 speed figure going wire to wire in a one-turn mile race last time out.  Scan down his past performances and two things leap off the page.  First, you can see that he was once highly regarded and was entered in three straight graded stakes.  The other thing you note is that he's been beaten by BOTH French Quarter and Grand Billi - in fact, he was the pace setter in Grand Billi's win in the Gr 3 Carry Back at this distance in July 2015, finishing 9th beaten over twenty lengths.  But that was two years ago and he appears to be in peak form.  Must avoid a pace duel with French Quarter, and it would seem (to me at least) that the turn back from one mile to seven furlongs will enable him to press that leader to the turn and be the one to catch late.

Mr. Jordan (5/1) If there was such a thing as a "Thoroughbred Dictionary" where words were defined in terms of horse racing (and wouldn't THAT be great!), the word "enigmatic" would have a full page color picture of this beautiful white/gray horse.  As a two-year-old he won his first three races, including two juvenile stakes races.  Two heart-breaking losses to start his 3yo season (I CLEARLY remember one when I was on the rail and he "WON" only to be DQ'd as my top bet) sent him to Monmouth Park where he rebounded with a big win in the Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes.  The connections thought they were good enough to take on Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Grade 1 Haskell, where they got their hat handed to them.  He was always close without getting that next elusive win until he exploded at Parx in Philadelphia to win by nine lengths.  He came south and was the prohibitive favorite in the Sunshine Millions Classic Preview and won again as much the best.  But there's a big difference between competition at Gulfstream Park West in the fall and stakes races here in the winter and Mr. Jordan has been a well beaten 7th and 6th in Grade 3 company in his last two.  A return to his best would make him a threat today.  Have to have some reservations that he's not sprinted since sometime in 2015 if not earlier.

Hammers Vision (4/1) Especially in a race like this that would appear to be without a legitimate favorite, this one appeals.  He's earned a big 96 Beyer speed figure not once but TWICE and AT THIS DISTANCE.  That's huge, as many of his rivals today have questions about producing their best at this level.  And he comes off a big effort to win here of a long break - so you'd think he might take a step forward today.  But that last out win was in a non-winners of THREE LIFETIME event so the move into stakes company is a big step up.  Jockey Julian Leparoux is winning at a huge 37% for trainer Brian Lynch with a positive return of $2.42 for ever $2 bet on them as a team.  He's worked sharply since that win and will be tracking the weakening front runners into the turn.  Is he good enough here?

The Truth Or Else (6/1) Let's face it, we're going to have to go out on a limb if we play this race.  Somebody is going to have to step up to reward our risk taking investment.  Well, on Hammers Vision you have to ask if he's good enough to make the step up in class; this guy does not appear to be a legitimate threat on his last couple and scanning down his past performances there are many races that do NOT fit here.  But using some creative filters I can make a case for this guy......Toss the last when going two turns, he's a better sprinter; toss the two back that while it WAS at this seven furlong distance, when they run races at that distance at Delta Downs it is a two-turn race; three back he was a winner going a similar 6 1/2 furlongs in a $100K Optional Allowance which would measure up closely to the class of this event.  Toss the one mile Gr 3 Ack Ack, and the try in the Gr 1 Forego.  A good number for the fifth place finish in the six furlong Tale of the Cat where he ran out of room.  At today's distance with a near-certain collapse on the front end, his late closing kick makes him the one to fear rolling late through the lane.

Fire Mission (8/1) We're faced with conflicting angles here - winning at seven furlongs previously is a strong angle in a seven furlong race like this.  And Fire Mission is 5/2-1-1 at the distance.  So we know he CAN win at the distance.  But his last several races have all been for mid-level claiming tags/conditions.  The step up into a $100K stakes on Florida Derby Day is asking a lot.  But perhaps the key to this one's chances is this.....two back when racing for a $30K tag he was claimed by top trainer Jorge Navarro.  He stepped him up immediately into a minor stakes event that required all runners to have run for a claiming tag.  And first time for Navarro he won.  Now Navarro moves him up into this $100K spot, and look who's agreed to ride, the top rider at the meet, Luis Saez - who was on board for the claiming try and the first out win for the barn.  Sneaky good - can we get a price?

Aces For John (20/1) If we were in Las Vegas and could make what are called "proposition bets," this one would be the mortal lock of the day if the bet was, "Who has the LEAST chance of winning today?"  Granted it's a horse race and a winner last week here at Gulfstream paid $206.40 for a $2 bet so never say never.  But the facts are these......Aces For John is 3-for-34 lifetime, running for a barn that is 2-for-32; he's been beaten by three of today's rivals and his lone try in a stakes saw him run 6th, beaten more than fifteen lengths by Mr. Jordan at odds of better than 60/1.  I just cannot see it here.

Seventh Sense (12/1) He's lightly raced and you could make the case that of all of these he has the best chance to move forward and surprise.  And if you're willing to believe that then you can look at his maiden win a year ago at Santa Anita, going 6 1/2 furlongs - similar to today's 7 furlongs - where he earned a 92 speed figure and that makes him believable.  But since that win he's not run within double digit lengths of that number and in every one of the six races since, not most but E-V-E-R-Y one of them, he's faded from the pace call to the wire.  Add in jockey Joe Bravo who is really struggling this winter with 8 wins from 149 mounts (saw him lose last week with a prohibitive 1/5 favorite and this week with a much-the-best 3/2 favorite) and you have to be worried that this one has a much better chance to NOT improve than to step forward.