The Cutler Bay Stakes

5:32 pm - Race 12
The Cutler Bay Stakes

$100,000 - 8 furlongs TURF

Gemologister (12/1) No.  And EIGHTEEN time maiden who's only gone long once and stopped badly has no chance, none, to win here.

Erasmo's Dream (5/1) He's run second for a $25K claiming tag in two of his last three starts.  Unlikely.

Shiraz (9/2) After producing good efforts in his first four starts, all on the turf, he was a good third in the Grade 3 Dania Beach here in January despite a troubled trip.  But despite his obvious turf affinity the connections sent him to sprint over the all-weather track at Ocala in an OBS stakes and then, having not learned their lesson, raced him in an entry level allowance in New York over the winterized inner track at Aqueduct.  At least he's earning frequent flyer miles on his credit card as he returns to So Fla, the sunshine and warmth, and most importantly gets back to two turns on the grass.  Javier Castellano for trainer Michael Maker today.

Conquest Bandit (10/1) Two back he was life and death to hold on while going wire to wire in a $50K Maiden Claiming event at this one mile trip on the grass.  He was claimed away and sent to the front in an optional $50K claiming event last time out by his new connections.  I would guess that trainer Michael Maker has entered this one to be the "rabbit" for his Shiraz - entered today to set a fast early pace to guarantee that Shiraz has a good set-up for his late kick.

Mr. Pinocchio (20/1) The good news is that he won his debut racing on the turf HERE.  But that was in September against far, FAR lesser company.  The speed figure was glacially slow as well. Sent two turns against fellow state-breds in a stakes he was no where to be found on the main track.  Comes back off a long break and in apparently overmatched company.

Inheritthewind (6/1) He debuted just four weeks ago and pressed a quick pace going a similar 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf here before edging away late to score.  As a $400K son of champion Tapit with strong human connections you have to think they believe they've got a good colt here to enter him in a stakes right off a maiden victory.  Might be this good if running to his sales expectations.

Sir Sebastian (8/1) The good news is he leads the field with three wins already in his young career.  The bad news is that he's raced exclusively in races with claiming conditions.  Unlikely but not out of the question.

Dover Cliffs (7/2) It's my opinion that of the lightly raced runners this one has the best chance to improve.  In both of his races he earned big Beyer figures (83-86).  One of the most dependable handicapping angles in racing is what's termed the "Double Beyer Advantage" - this is when a horse has two speed figures in their last two races that are BOTH better than any lifetime figure earned by his rivals.  Such is the case with Dover Cliffs!  It's been my experience that the Double Beyer angle is a strong one, but like all handicapping angles those types do lose sometimes.  And I would have to admit that when the Double Beyer advantage does not work is often with lightly raced horses and with horses exiting maiden wins where both "big figures" were earned against maiden rivals and today they face winners.  This too, unfortunately is the case with Dover Cliffs.  Would love to know why top rider Luis Saez is NOT back on board today - but it's not because he picked another rival as Saez is not riding this race.  And hot riding Jose Ortiz is a more than capable substitute for Saez.  In fact while the sample is very small, you have to say, WOW to the fact that Ortiz is winning at a 75% clip here for this barn!  WOW!

Write In Candidate (15/1) Two back he lost for a maiden $35K tag, then stepped up to beat a weak maiden $50K field last time out.  I'm against.

Major Key (6/1) While it's true he won , on the turf, three back AND that it was against horses that had already won a race.....he was 20/1 that day and in his other three races most recently he's been beaten a combined 42 lengths.  I'd be surprised.