The Orchid Stakes

1:53 pm - Race 5

Grade 3 Orchid Stakes

$200,000 - 1 3/8th Mile TURF

Olorda (8/5) On March 5 last spring I was here at Gulfstream and had bet the Grade 3 Very One Stakes.  There were six fillies & mares in the field, THREE of which were trained by probably the best turf trainer in North America, Chad Brown.  My pick that day was a filly named Dacita who'd been the last to beat the reigning Breeders' Cup champion Tepin.  But on that March 5th afternoon the "other Brown filly" Olorda went right to the front and coasted loose on the lead to upset the field, holding on in a photo finish.  She showed up next at the strong Keeneland meet and went wire to wire in the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes.  After that April win she wasn't seen again until running here last month in the Grade 3 Very One Stakes.  She looked to be loose on the lead again and was bet down to 8/5 at post time, including my investment.  But she was bumped off stride at the break and had to sprint hard to make the lead.  That took enough out of her that by the time they reached the far turn she had nothing left and stopped badly.  Now with one under her belt she makes her second start and is nearly certain to improve.  She gets a rider change to Javier Castellano who is the "go-to" rider for Brown (28% wins at Gulfstream together).  In a short field like this speed can be even more dangerous than it typically is.  The concern - if you've been watching the races all winter here, like I have :) - is that from the rail Olorda gets away cleanly today instead of being left at the gate like so many of Castellano's mounts have all winter.  But if away alertly the race may be over before they hit the top of the stretch for the first time around.

Summersault (3/1) It's a short field of five; it IS a horse race where often times you can't explain what just happened; and IF you were looking at just the speed figures you would easily say that Summersault fits with these.  But one of the most consistent angles in handicapping races of the turf is this - "Class tells on grass."  Summersault has been to the post twenty-one times and the LONE start in a stakes race was in a state-bred stakes last May.  Sent off at more than 60/1 odds she finished 11th of twelve runners, beaten nearly a dozen lengths.  If you're betting here it's in your favor that she's won two in a row, both here; the last at a distance similar to today's and that last race figure was a new career high - maybe a sign that she's in peak form.  If you're against you have to be wary of a last out career best figure that was so much out of line with her normal performances and that BOTH wins have come in real dog fights through the lane - hard to imagine she can come out of back-to-back tough efforts, against lesser, to step up into graded stakes and produce a number as good or better than her career best last time out.

Temple Fur (4/1) Like the other four, you cannot dismiss her solely on the fact that she's not a graded stakes winner.  If you back her you have to really like that from just eleven starts she's won five of them; and this is clearly her favorite course as she's won four-of-eight here.  She's won two stakes races over the course, with a second and a third in her other two stakes appearances and it would appear that she will be the one tracking the front runner to the final turn before making a bid.  But with that said, she's NEVER gone beyond a mile and a sixteenth so she'll need to produce a career best, vs. the toughest competition she's ever faced while running a quarter of a mile farther than she's ever run before.  Her last-out win came in a $60K starter stakes (a race limited to runners who'd run for a claiming tag) and earned a career best speed figure that is double digit lengths behind what it will take to win this.  The rider is 9-for-121 at the meet and the barn is 3-for-31.  Match those human connections up with those of Javier Castellano-Chad Brown on the favorite (54 wins for Castellano - 22 wins for Brown) and you see what Temple Fur is up against.

Maquette (12/1) First, the is N-O WAY at all, in any universe know to the human race that anyone who knows anything about horse racing that a Bill Mott European import / turf horse, ridden by hot-riding Jose Ortiz, would EVER go off at double digit odds in a five horse field.  That's just stupid.  So if you think this will be your "LONGSHOT of the Day" you're wrong.  But, with the resume and human connections of the rail runner, that one is nearly certain to be the favorite so you SHOULD get a fair price if you land here.  While not ALWAYS true, it is generally true that any European runner who comes to North America will be better than their rivals who run here.  That's the first real big plus for taking a closer look at Maquette.  She's runs in the colors of international powerhouse throughbred owner Juddmonte Farms.  She was a highly regarded $300K sales purchase as a daughter of champion Tapit AND she began her career with back to back wins in France.  For years one of the best angles in handicapping was "Bill Mott, off the layoff, on the turf".....today, Maquette comes off the layoff, on the turf, for Bill Mott!  If the favorite gets pace pressure and/or does not come away cleanly and/or does not establish an easy lead, it WILL be Maquette that turns for home on the lead to run away with the victory.  The most logical alternative to the favorite.

Quiet Kitten (2/1) In this short field, all of them must be considered to have at least a chance to win.  I believe that the key to the race may go through this five-year-old mare.  Consider these comments to her races listed in the past performances:  "set pace," "pressured pace, dueled," "dueled two wide," "dueled in two path," "forwardly placed," "dueled inside," "dueled inside winner," "pressed, led."  You get the picture - this one will be pushing the top one which means there SHOULDN'T be any easy lead for the top one.  In that previously mentioned March 5th Gr 3 Very One, it was this mare who was tracking Olorda but Quiet Kitten gave way at the top of the stretch.  This past January 28th Quiet Kitten tracked the leader only to watch the talented Suffuse blow by to win the Grade 3 La Prevoyante Handicap.  Last time out when Olorda had early troubles, it was Quiet Kitten who tracked her to the far turn and when that one gave way it was Quiet Kitten who forged to the lead at a huge 23/1 before watching helplessly as Suffused blew by to draw off by five widening lengths.  Either that last race figure of 91 or her three back figure of 92 would be good enough to win this.  But look back at Temple Fur, who obviously has obstacles to overcome......in between the two sharp efforts that Quiet Kitten ran she was 7th beaten more than four lengths - as the favorite - to, yep, that's right, none other than Temple Fur.