The Appleton Stakes

1:24 pm - Race 4

Grade 3 Appleton Stakes

$200,000 - 1 Mile TURF

Diamond Bachelor (5/1) The good news is that this six-year-old won back-to-back stakes races over this course in the fall while earning strong Beyer figures.  The bad news is that the competition goes to an entirely different level in the winter and he was 11th beaten 24 lengths in the Gr 2 Fort Lauderdale at 70/1 and 12th beaten more than a dozen lengths in the Gr 3 William L. McKnight at 40/1 in his last two turf tries here this winter.  He will show speed from the rail.

Our Way (7/2) This lightly raced four-year-old has shown a lot of talent in his career and this one mile distance appears to be his best trip.  He's won three of his last four starts with two of those coming at the very competitive Saratoga meet, the second of which was in a stakes race.  He broke his maiden over this course and when last seen he was making his return to Hallandale where he won the Sunshine Millions Turf.  The Beyer figure he earned is good enough to win and you have to like that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez keeps the mount.  Has never faced graded company before, but you'd have to admit that this short field of seven is NOT the strongest graded event you've ever seen.

All Included (3/1) This guy figures to be the short priced favorite, especially while facing only six rivals.  If you take the short price, these are the very positives you'll be betting on......He's trained by the best trainer in North America in Todd Pletcher; he's ridden by three-time Eclipse award winning jockey Javier Castellano; he comes into this Grade 3 off a third place finish in a Grade 1 event last time out;  and finally he sports five triple digit speed figures on his resume.  All of this would seem to make him a legitimate favorite.  But before you mortgage the farm, consider these facts.....this time last year on Florida Derby Day he was coming in her off a third place finish, beaten a length, in a Grade 1 and he finished 8th beaten nearly a dozen lengths; he's not won a race since taking an allowance race in July 2015!  For what ever reason this winter Javier Castellano has NOT ridden well consistently and has had significantly fewer mounts for Pletcher.  BUT, it's noteworthy that he's only 1-for-8 at all other distances on the grass, but a sharp 3-for-6 at this one mile distance on the grass.

My Point Exactly (6/1) You'd have to imagine if you were the owners of this five-year-old you'd look at this rich race, a graded stakes, with a short field without a superstar and say, "Why not?"  You've got a "hot horse" who's won two in a row and who obviously loves this course (4/2-0-1).  But the fact is that his back-to-back wins have come in the claiming ranks on the front end.  If you scan through his past performances his last five stakes races have been losses, and those were all state-bred listed events and this is an open graded stakes.  The barn is winning at a big 38% for 2017 and gets a top rider in Paco Lopez.  Can take them a long way but in the end he'll probably struggle to last all the way to the wire.  A live longshot that WILL give you a run for your money.

Market Outlook (9/2) Last summer you could have claimed this one for a mere $16K out of an Indiana Grande race - trust me, the competition at Indiana in the summer is NOTHING like the competition at Gulfstream in the winter....much less a claiming event compared to a Grade 3.  Probably the one angle that goes the farthest in evaluating this guy's chances is this.....On February 15th he lined up in a $35K claiming event here with today's rival My Point Exactly.  While that guy went wire to wire, Market Outlook was 8th beaten eleven lengths.  Hard to envision him making up nearly a dozen lengths on a runner who's an outsider in here today to win his first graded event.

Siding Spring (10/1) This lightly raced four-year-old is a very intriguing runner, especially if sent off at anywhere near the price listed on the morning line provided by the Daily Racing Form.  He began his career with two turf starts - a decisive win at this distance over the unique Kentucky Downs course (has an uphill stretch run), then ran a sharp third in the Grade 3 Bourbon.  That impressed his connections enough to catch Derby fever and he moved to the main track to run in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, and Grade 2 Rebel.  When he returned to the turf this January he got just his second win.  Stepped up to second level allowance off that and was dismissed at more than 20/1 when he scored again.  That 95 Beyer fits very well with these and he might be finally realizing just how much talent he truly has.  Should sit a good tracking trip for Julian Leparoux today.  Interesting.......

Delta Prince (6/1) One of the best things going for this colt is that he appears to have enormous potential.  Wouldn't be at all surprised if this fall you look back and say, "I saw him in his first graded stakes back at Gulfstream" as he starts to blossom into a major player in the older turf handicap division.  He's trained by Jimmy Jerkens who's had an outstanding meeting, winning 28% of the time.  His horses have run lights out which leads me to believe this one will as well.  One of the most exciting young riders in the country has ridden quite a lot here, Jose Ortiz and while the sample is small, Ortiz has won at a big 63% rate.  After sharp efforts on the main track Delta Prince produced his first win and a big improvement on the Beyer scale when first moved to the turf at this distance, in December HERE.  Came back to face entry level allowance runners six weeks ago and won again.  For what it's worth Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was aboard both Our Way and Delta Prince in their last out victory and he shows up on Our Way.