The Honey Fox Stakes

4:25 pm - Race 10

Grade 2 Honey Fox Stakes

$300,000 - 1 Mile TURF

Lori's Store (8/1) It would appear to me that this one is not a good bet if you're looking to bet to WIN, but if you're playing the exacta or better yet the trifecta, then this one is a good bet to run strongly at big odds, without winning.  Lori's Store runs very well here at Gulfstream with a 13/4-1-2 record including two stakes wins.  Last winner she was the popular, even money favorite when winning the $150K Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf.  But since that January 2016 effort she's only raced three times.  The first two she showed little, but last time out in the Sand Springs she was a good third.  That effort is even better considering that the top two finishers raced 1-2 around the course with both of them short priced favorites and Lori's Store was best of the rest.  The bad news is that the winner, who was daylight lengths clear of Lori's Store is back today.

Dad's Princess (15/1) If you're looking for a big priced runner who has a chance, and it is horse racing and as Jim Carey's character said in the film, "Dumb and Dumber" when told he had a one-in-a-million chance, "so you're saying I've got a chance."  Dad's Princess has a couple of Beyer figures in the low 90s that would be good enough to make her a win candidate, including a third in the Grade 3 My Charmer in November.  But the fact that she's lost her last two which were in non-winners of 3-LIFETIME competition, I'd find her winning this a huge surprise.

Inside Out (4/1) As good as any of the price plays, and at least she's run against open competition (unlike Dad's Princess).  But her last win was in June and she was fifth at 30/1 odds in the Grade 3 Marshua's River earlier this winter.  She was a close second to today's rival Mississippi Delta last time out (which begs the question why is that one listed at 15/1 by the DRF odds maker and Inside Out who LOST is 4/1?....just sayin').  Would take a career effort to finish in the top three in my opinion.  Note she's entered in a turf race on the Thursday afternoon card.

Jodesanimaux (3/1) Interesting, very interesting.  In horse racing one "truism" is that some horses just run better over certain tracks or courses.  And this five-year-old mare is one of those.  She's 1-for-9 at all other race tracks, but here at Gulfstream she is a big 4-for-6 and has earned strong speed figures when at her best.  She was the 5/2 post time favorite in her most recent but disappointed when running third beaten by BOTH Mississippi Delta and Inside Out.  But that was her first start since October 1st and she may well have needed that one as well as been pointing towards this race.  Love the fact that John Velazquez takes over to ride today.  If there's a pace melt down she will be the one running best at the end.

Celestine (2/1) About the only reason you can make a case to bet against this one is that you won't bet the favorite.  Consider this.....the other six are a combined 1-for-18 in graded stakes, with that lone victory being a Grade 2 win.  By contrast Celestine is a two-time graded stakes winner, including a win in the Grade 1 Just A Game last summer.  She obviously loves this course as she's run up a 7/4-1-2 record locally and that includes a win in THIS RACE last spring and a last out victory over multiple Grade 1 winner Catch A Glimpse in the Sand Springs.  Next to no one can ever outrun Catch A Glimpse to the front, but Celestine did and drew off as easily best that afternoon.  Not only is she the class of the field, but she might be the only one who wants the lead here.  There isn't a better bet in horse racing than "Lone Speed" and if that happens to be with the most talented, fastest, and classiest runner in the field then it's nearly always a win for that front running horse.  She'll probably be 3/5 or so at post time and with Jose Ortiz on board.  If someone insists on the lead, Celestine has won from a pressing trip so that also works in her favor.  Very hard to look past at short odds it would seem.

Mississippi Delta (15/1) The "pros" will tell you that in the long run you will make more money in handicapping horse races if you play those runners who have a chance to win at a fair price rather than the "most obvious" horse as short priced favorites.  With that in mind you can make a strong case for Mississippi Delta who comes in her off a win in a strong event - beating two of today's six rivals.  Before you point out that she was winning in allowance company consider that this time last year she was second at 12/1 odds behind Celestine in THIS VERY RACE!  She's a six-time winner on the turf and she's 3/2-1-0 here at Gulfstream.  Gets one of the best turf riders around in Jose Lezcano who was on board for that win last out.  Dangerous at a fair price.

Linda (5/1) IF the favorite is to go down, then this would be where I'd be looking.  The lightly raced Linda went 0-for-4 to start her career, but all those were on the main track.  When given the opportunity to try the grass she responded immediately with a win and more importantly her Beyer figure leaped from a 66 to an 84.  She produced a near identical number when taking on first time winners AND WON right back with an improved 86 figure.  Six weeks later she tried the Grade 3 Valley View field at Keeneland and was a best-of-the-rest 2nd at 9/1, outfinishing a next out winner.  She stepped up to the Grade 2 Ms Revere at Churchill in October and she drew off to win by daylight against her rival three-year-old rivals.  Those two stakes efforts earned figures of 94 and 96 and if you're looking at strictly the numbers, the race favorite, Celestine earned a 95 and 97 in her last two turf races.  I won't argue if you want to back this one at a price.  But I will point out she's facing older stakes runners for the first time, coming off a long layoff, for a barn that's 3-for-56 overall.  For those of you that know or follow me you know that I have "issues" with jockey Julian Leparoux, and he rides here.  It's not just me though in this instance.  Over the last two years he's been on 32 horses for this barn and has posed in the winner's circle on TWO occasions.  Ouch