Tuesday, March 10, 2015

The Grade 3 Skip Away


Race 5:  The Grade 3 Skip Away - A Mile and 1/8th



Team Colors is an intriguing entry in the first stakes race of the day.  He's hit the board in all six North American starts since shipping to the US from France, but he's only run one time on the main track - a win last time out over a muddy surface.  The distance will not pose a problem, but he's a late runner and traditionally the track at Gulfstream - especially on a big stakes day - plays to speed.
Rich Daddy As recently as last May you could have claimed this guy for a mere $6,250!  But he's turned his form around and comes in to today's Grade 3 event with three wins in his last four starts.  A bit leery of the fact that his most recent two victories were in an optional $12K event and in a state-bred $50K event.  Doesn't class up to these on first glance.
Enders Cat was an 8-time maiden until two back when he won a mid-level $35K maiden sprint.  His last two, his first tries against winners, came in entry level allowance races and he was a no-show, well beaten in both.  Ummmm, no.
Heisinfront is a sneaky-good contender.  He's never run particularly well in stakes company and has often been on the turf.  BUT....his last two starts were against stakes runners and he was a solid third behind multiple graded stakes winner General A Rod two back, then was a better-than-it-looks sixth in the Grade 2 GP Handicap last time out.  His last two Beyer figures are "paired" (91 & 91) which is often a sign of an impending big effort.  Could be a surprise package.
Valid should win this event.  He lays over the field on class with past performances littered with sharp efforts in graded events; he's a multiple stakes winner, including a Grade 3 last summer, and he has won six of fourteen starts locally.  If he runs any of his SEVEN triple digit Beyers that he's earned over his last ten starts he'll win by daylight.  My concern is this is nearly the identical scenario that he was in last year when he was the even money favorite in the listed Sir Shackleton on Derby Day....and he finished a well beaten fifth that day.  He'll be a short price, and he SHOULD win.
Savoy Stomp has been well-regarded from the day the hammer fell on the auction block when Team Valor paid $875K to buy him.  He won his 2yo debut for top trainer Todd Pletcher but has had a spotted career since.  However, if you filter out all of the races following the maiden win and look at that race and then his last two you can make the case that he's finally realizing his potential.  In his 2016 debut in January he ran a strong number when fourth, and last time out he buried a second level allowance field with a figure that equaled his career best.  The fact that Pletcher moves him into a graded stakes today is a positive sign to me.  Has a bullet work since that last race win and top rider Javier Castellano sticks.

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