The Grade 3 Appleton

Race 8:  The Grade 3 Appleton - 8 furlongs:  TURF

All Included presents a real dilemma here.  He's run in seven graded stakes in his last eight starts, and run well....but without a win.  But, he is sent out by Todd Pletcher with Javier Castellano on board.  Oh!  AND only one of those races was at today's one mile distance where All Included owns a 4/3-0-0 record.  That one graded event at a mile saw him finish 4th, but beaten a little more than a length.  He gets blinkers on today and that's been a solid win angle for Pletcher.  Could he be the one winner on the card today at a big price where everyone shakes their head and says, "How does Todd Pletcher win a graded event on Derby Day, with Javier Castellano at that kind of price?"

With Exultation Well, at first glance you'd dismiss this guy when you note he was running for a $35K claiming tag two back.  But then you note that not only did he win that race, but he came right back to win a restricted stakes for his new connections and the thing that you wouldn't know unless you follow racing closely is this - the runner-up in that last race is a multiple stakes winner who's run strongly in graded events.  Maybe With Exultation is getting good at just the right time!

Aktabantay is another that you look at his past performances and wonder just what are we getting today.  His last win was way back in 2014, BUT that was a Group 3 event in Europe.  Still, he ran fairly well in a Tampa allowance last time out off a long layoff.  You have to figure that they shipped here thinking they have a legitimate chance, right?

Long On Value First, let's make note of the fact that trainer Bill Mott won FIVE STAKES races last Saturday so his barn is currently white hot.  Second, note that Long On Value won this race on Derby Day last year.  And finally, you'll note that he's been running in strictly graded events since December 2014.  You have to take a positive spin on his last race second place finish in the Grade 3 Canadian, the prep for this.  He was coming off a seven month layoff and that alone would be a legitimate excuse.  But on that day he was chasing multiple graded stakes winner Heart to Heart who was loose on an easy lead (again) and went wire to wire without ever facing any pressure.  So the fact that in spite of the layoff Long On Value was second is a strong indicator that he ran very well.

Sky Captain has NEVER won on the turf - uh oh - and hasn't won a race since 2014.  Oh :(  But, he's run strong enough races that if he won today it wouldn't be a shocking event.  He shows two blistering fast workouts since his last race, a loss in a Grade 3 at Tampa.  Strong trainer, strong owner, and jockey Julian Leparoux is wildly inconsistent (in my opinion) but can win the big ones.  Mixed feelings.

Divisidero If you like the way Long On Value ran in the Canadian, then you have to love the way Divisidero ran.  This guy has run big races here previously, as evidenced by his maiden win last winter and narrow loss in the Grade 3 Palm Beach.  Off that effort he was my top choice on Kentucky Derby Day in the Grade 2 American Turf and he rewarded my handicapping with a $19.20 payoff!  He came right back to score for me a second time in the $200K Pennine Ridge at Belmont Park.  But he was outrun in the Grade 1 Belmont Park Derby and was put away for the year.  He came back in the aforementioned Canadian off a six month layoff, and unlike Long On Value who stalks the pace, Divisidero comes from way off the pace.  So the fact he rallied, off a long layoff, facing older rivals for the first time, against a multiple graded winner who set a slow pace, and was STILL third, beaten a neck by Long On Value for second, indicates to me he should be ready to roll today IF he gets a legitimate pace up front.

Force the Pass had a sensational three-year-old season last year, including an upset win in the Divisidero Grade 1 Belmont Derby.  But after that win he was a disappointment in the Grade 1 Secretariat on Million Day at Arlington as the 3/2 favorite and then was a gigantic disappointment when beaten as the 2/5 favorite in Laurel's Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes.  Today he comes in off back-to-back disappointments, that were run six months ago, AND faces older rivals for the first time.  Still, you may want to consider that trainer Alan Goldberg is a huge 40% winner with runners off of long layoffs like this - Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez is the rider.

Reporting Star has two wins since 2014 and both were in photo finishes.  He has run fast enough in the past and faced quality fields, but just never seems to get the job done.  I'll let him beat me if today is his day to shine.