Tuesday, March 10, 2015

The Grade 2 Pan American


Race 13:  The Grade 2 Pan American:  One and one-half miles - TURF



Kaigun He is ALWAYS right there and I would not try to talk you off making him your choice.  But with that said, he's not won since 2014 and he's disappointed me more than once while running big, but finishing second.  Not for me.
Jay Gatsby Beat an allowance field two back then was a good second as the tepid favorite behind World Approval last time out who came back to run big in a stakes race last weekend on the Louisiana Derby undercard.  Good enough on his best day.
Xaverian Has lost more than a dozen in a row and never run in a stakes....even shows a loss for a $35K tag in non-winners of 3-lifetime.  No.
Grand Tito Has won two in a row and is in career form.  His last race victory in the Grade 2 MacDiarmida earned a career-high equaling speed figure.  He races close to the pace and should have every opportunity to win his third straight.  Gets a positive rider switch to Javier Castellano - but that will also lower the price today.
St. Albans Boy Has a single win in his last eleven starts and has never run strongly in graded company like this.
O'prado Ole Was loose on the lead in Grand Tito's win in the Diarmida before caving in.  Doesn't help his chances that he's lost to not one, not two, but three of today's rivals previously.
Wake Forest This guy won six of ten Euro starts including a Group 3 in Germany last July.  He shipped to North America to run in the prestigious Grade 1 Arlington Million and while he was sixth that day he earned a big figure and was only beaten five lengths.  Off since July he's moved into the Chad Brown barn which fires at a big 26% with runners off a long layoff.  He's been working consistently every seven days and looks to be sitting on a big effort today with John Velazquez riding.
Hello Don Julio Just debuted three weeks ago with a win in a one mile event.  Would surprise if able to stretch out AND take down graded rivals in his first try against winners.
Seeking Alpha The lightly raced 4yo colt is also trained by Chad Brown and has won two straight, the last at a marathon distance like this when he went straight to the front and never looked back.  Could be very dangerous if left alone on the front end.
Montclair Has run very strongly in North America including a win over today's rival O'prado Ole in allowance company last out.  Back in 2013 he was a top Euro runner.
Twilight Eclipse Interesting that the one-time world record holder at this distance is entered as a "Main Track Only" runner.  Doubt he gets a chance to run today.

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