Race 2

Maiden Special Weight (3yo): Six and One-half Furlongs

Top Contenders (post position order):
2-Tracking Stock hails from the Chad Brown barn and he is a frequent winner with first time starters.  You'll get a good price on him with a Todd Pletcher colt in the lineup today.  4-Face of Winner gets Castellano again today and that is a big plus.  AND he ran second last time out, often sign of a next-out maiden winner.  6-R Cat Daddy debuts for Kirk Ziadie and he is a Gulfstream 40% Club member with first-time starters.  Again, you'll get a good price on a solid win angle because of the Pletcher colt.  8-Topara would be the horse who could win and pay a big price and I'd say, "I knew it!"  Don't dismiss him to quickly.  9-Tinto Mesa debuts for Todd Pletcher and "wise guy" handicappers familiar with Gulfstream will advise you to either take the short price or skip the race.  This one looks like one of his prototype winners on paper despite making his debut today.

Kabang  He debuted at the prestigious Saratoga meet as a two-year-old, and only the most highly thought-of juveniles do that.  But, he was away very slowly and never ran at all, finishing 7th, beaten more than a dozen lengths at 30/1.  Will be every bit of that for a barn that is 3-for-69 at the meet.

Tracking Stock This colt debuts for top young trainer Chad Brown.  If it's a maiden race at Gulfstream or Saratoga for young horses and you do NOT back a Todd Pletcher horse then this would be the first trainer I'd look for.  For a couple of years any Chad Brown maiden at Saratoga was winning at a 40% clip and was an automatic play for me.  His works are solid here and he gets the top jockey from New York in Irad Ortiz - who s winning at a big 30% clip for Brown.  Win candidate.

Killargue It is a horse race and anything can happen.  With that said, a low percentage rider for an 0-for-13 barn.....would be a big surprise.

Face of Winner  He debuted here in January and led from gate to final head bob, second in a photo at 40/1 odds!  In his second start he ran into Todd Pletcher's superstar, Khozan who would have been the Florida Derby favorite today if he had not been injured.  Last time out Castellano got on board and he dueled for the lead from the moment the gates opened until deep stretch when he weakened, again, second, again.  Castellano rides back today - that has to count for something.

Starbound He's already been to the gate six times without a win (that's not good) and he's hit the board (2nd or 3rd) in five of them.  Tells me he likes to be near the front but is more than happy to let someone else win.  He's consistent and experienced, but that doesn't count for a lot to me in maiden races.  Some will like him.

R Cat Daddy  Trainer Kirk Ziadie is one of the most successful local trainers, and his horses do well at Gulfstream.  In fact, over the last two years his debut maiden special weight runners have won at a 40% clip.  Well, here is one.  He probably won't be the favorite with the Castellano horse in here.  But note that regular rider Edgar Zayas wins at a 32% clip for Ziadie and returns $2.18 for every $2 you bet on him with that barn's runners.

El Guaire River He was 5th, beaten more than a dozen lengths in his debut here at odds of 30/1 for a barn that's 0-for-25.  Unless you've been to the El Guaire River or 7 is your lucky number, then there is little reason to support him here.

Topara Which Topara shows up today?  In his debut at Churchill Downs he was a good fourth, finishing behind a colt named War Story who came right back to beat winners and is one of the win candidates in the Grade 2 $750K Louisiana Derby being run today at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.  But in his Gulfstream debut he was 6th beaten fourteen lengths.  You could make the excuse that when he broke from the rail he was intimidated - that often happens - and that would explain him quickly being dead last.  With a clean break he could surprise at a big price.

Tinto Mesa  At Gulfstream with three-year-olds, and at Saratoga with two-year-olds, in any maidens special event the first thing I do is look to see is there a Todd Pletcher horse.  If so, the handicapping is over.  This guy sends out his best maidens at those two meets and wins a gigantic share of them.  Three years ago I got tired of trying to beat him in maiden races, so it's an automatic play for me.  This colt was a $300K Keeneland sales grad - somebody thought he had talent - and he's got several sharp works for his debut today.  Jockey Johnny Velazquez rides for Pletcher - a 27% win angle.

Delta Outlaw His first two starts were on the turf, but when moved to the main track last time out he ran a career best.  He was second beaten less than a length.  Was it the main track, or the fact that the track was sloppy?  Regardless that was in New York in October and this is March in Florida.  Repeat off the long layoff?