Race 4

Maiden Special Weight (3yo): Seven and One-half Furlongs - TURF

Top Contenders (post position order):
1-Hundred Year Storm looks to prove the old racing adage to "bet the longer price when a trainer has two runners in the same race" as she goes for Chad Brown and the more unheralded Paco Lopez.  Check out the jockey-trainer stats for these two and you'll see why this is a legitimate long-shot play!  4-Bride To Be showed real talent in the way she finished in her debut AND gets a big rider upgrade today.  5-Commandaria ships in from Europe - that's a big plus - and was highly regarded "across the pond."  Get past the fact that Julian Leparoux rides and you could have a price play here!  8-Clara Kelly is the likely favorite for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano.  Hard not to like her chances today.

Hundred Year Storm The third maiden race in a row on the Derby undercard, and the third Chad Brown starter that merits attention.  Honestly, especially at Gulfstream, I like Chad Brown turf maidens better than his dirt beginners.  When Javier Castellano rides you know you have something, but here you get Paco Lopez.  Now Lopez is a good rider, he won the Monmouth riding title last summer in a landslide, and he's won many big races, but he doesn't ride for Brown often.  Check the stats though.....at Gulfstream he's only been on six horses for Chad Brown, and won with FOUR of them!  67% and better yet, for ever $2 you would have bet on those six runners, you would have received a whopping $12.30 back.  That's a GIGANTIC number.  The daughter of War Front - who is a solid turf sire - looks live to me!

Play The Break She could surprise me and show talent in her debut, but the numbers show the barn has won with only 2-of-56 debut runners.  Ouch.  Not for me.

Nevelee Debuted for a 21% barn in a state-bred dirt sprint.  Moves into a barn that is winless in 2015 after going winless in 2014....and into an open turf route.  Uhhhh, no.

Bride To Be Showed promise in her debut.  She broke awkwardly and was quickly well off the leaders.  But she was FLYING through the stretch, coming home in a very quick finishing fraction to go from 10th entering the turn to second, beaten a half a length.  Gets a big upgrade in riders from a journeyman who is "ok" locally to the best rider in New York.  The experience of one under her belt gives her an edge over the highly considered debut runners today.

Commandaria What to make of this filly?  On the one hand she ran her first three races in Europe and it's widely accepted that Euro turf runners outclass their North American counterparts.  She move into the Christophe Clement barn who is well known primarily for his work with filly turf runners.  AND he shows a big 35% win rate with horses making their first North American start for him.  BUT.....Commandaria was a beaten favorite in BOTH of her last two starts.  Hmmmmm.  For me personally I do not like jockey Julian Leparoux and typically avoid him.  Still, he's a 24% winner for Clement and has won 26 races here this winter.

Southern Gem She debuted for Todd Pletcher at Saratoga with Javier Castellano; that is nearly always a recipe for a short-priced favorite, but Southern Gem was 8/1 that day and ran like it.  Castellano does NOT ride back here today.  It is a profit-producing move to bet Pletcher when he does NOT use Castellano or Velazquez, but this does not look like the time to try that angle.....but hey, that's why she'll be a good price!

Gracequinnannamany Trying saying that three times in a row!  She debuted in a dirt sprint and was 8th, beaten thirty lengths at 30/1.  No.

Clara Kelly This 3yo daughter of War Front, a $350K Keeneland sales grad, debuted for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano on March 1 and the crowd was not fooled sending her off as the 6/5 favorite.  But she broke 10th of 11 from the far outside in a five furlong turf sprint.  Hard enough to win from the outside going that short, much less if you break poorly.  She closed strongly to be fourth that day.  She has two nice turf works since and Brown wins at a 35% clip with second time starters.  Castellano a 31% winner for the barn.

Hot House Rose Was a good third in her dirt sprint debut.  The move to the inner course does not bode well for her based on the barn's stats.  Trainer Timothy Hills is 0-for-24 with horses moving from the dirt to the turf.  YIKES.

Queen of Scat Has put together back-to-back third place finishes in turf routes here.  But she's still winless after five starts.

Killer Partner She debuted in a turf sprint for trainer Michael Maker and top rider Castellano.  They are a 40% winning combination so it was no surprise she was the 5/2 favorite.  But she found her rally only second best.  Stretched out to two turns with Castellano sticking she was the 9/5 favorite last time and she went right to the front.  Led them into the stretch and ten weakened to be second again.  NOT a good sign that Castellano chooses another.  The eleven post does her no favors either.