Race 9

Maiden Special Weight (3yo):  Eight Furlongs (NOTE:  This is a one-turn mile)

Top Contenders (post position order):
2-River Date has experience at this unique distance/configuration and ran behind a stakes winner.   8-Scorch was a good second in his debut when well clear of the show horse, often a sign of a next-out maiden winner.  9-Stevie's Wonder suffered a terrible, nightmare trip but was still fourth in the Scorch race AND gets Javier Castellano.  10-Super Surfer was well beaten in his first try, but the winner is a favorite in the Florida Derby today.  12-Dr. Toole ships in from Tampa for a trainer with HUGE numbers with first time runners.  13-Dekalb County is sent out by Todd Pletcher who typically owns maiden special weight races for three-year-olds here.

Abounding Legacy The good news is that he's been second in three straight starts to open his career; the bad news is that he's been second in three straight tries - no will to win?  Move up in class from state-bred maidens to open maidens.

River Date Two thirds and a fourth in his brief career, but it must be noted he was a troubled third two back AT THIS ONE-TURN MILE and moved up to second via disqualification.  That was one of the most controversial DQ's of the meet and the subject of much debate for weeks as the winner was an odds-on Pletcher colt.  Must be noted he went on to upset a graded stakes in Kentucky a month ago at 9/1 odds.  Hmmm.

Element Makes his second career start for Pletcher and NEITHER go-to riders take the mount.  But top NY jockey Irad Ortiz rides.  I never like to see a Pletcher runner NOT be well bet - and he was 6/1 in his debut when finishing a well-beaten eighth.  Could surprise.

Warrior's Instinct Was a good fourth in his Monmouth debut last August.  Note the runner-up was a Pletcher colt who came right back to score.  Not a fan of the trainer-jockey here at Gulfstream this winter.

It's a Gven Debuts for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, and like the other maiden special first time starters today for Mott, you have to wonder about his chances when Mott is 5-for-99 with debut runners over the last two years.

Summer Dancer Has three career starts, all on the turf and nothing to show for it.  Moves to a new barn.....that is 1-for-14 on the year.  Unlikely.

Market Guessing Has shown flashes of early speed in all three starts.  Unfortunately he's stopped like he was shot in all three as well.

Scorch Shows a very common theme to next-out maiden winners.  Debuted with a sharp second place finish behind a runner that was open lengths clear but was multiple lengths clear of the rest of the field.  A solid win contender.

Stevie's Wonder Lured top rider Javier Castellano for his debut in February and then broke behind the field losing all chance.  He was FIVE wide on the turn but was still a good fourth despite all the trouble.  Note Scorch was second in that same race.

Super Surfer He was completely outrun in his debut, BUT the winner (Materiality) was a Todd Pletcher colt who came right back to win and is one of the top three win candidates for today's one million dollar Florida Derby!

Sustainability Was soundly defeated in his debut by both Scorch and Stevie's Wonder.

Dr. Toole Makes his first start for trainer Jamie Ness today.  Two things are VERY interesting to me.  First that Ness ships this guy down from his Tampa base today; and second, nearly all of Ness' horses are owned by Midwest Thoroughbreds, but this one is not.  Hmmmm.  Check out the stats on Ness first-time starters - 43% wins!  And for every $2 bet they pay an average of $5.26 - that's a gigantic number.  Jockey Luis Saez wins at a near 40% clip for Ness and together their horses pay $4.26 for every $2 bet.  Intriguing.

Dekalb County Three-year-old son of Malibu Moon debuts for Todd Pletcher with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.  Four bullet works on his resume and if he runs like any of his stablemates, he'll be a win candidate for the 11-time training champion today.