Florida Derby Day

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

The Appleton Stakes

1:24 pm - Race 4

Grade 3 Appleton Stakes

$200,000 - 1 Mile TURF

Diamond Bachelor (5/1) The good news is that this six-year-old won back-to-back stakes races over this course in the fall while earning strong Beyer figures. The bad news is that the competition goes to an entirely different level in the winter and he was 11th beaten 24 lengths in the Gr 2 Fort Lauderdale at 70/1 and 12th beaten more than a dozen lengths in the Gr 3 William L. McKnight at 40/1 in his last two turf tries here this winter. He will show speed from the rail.

Our Way (7/2) This lightly raced four-year-old has shown a lot of talent in his career and this one mile distance appears to be his best trip. He's won three of his last four starts with two of those coming at the very competitive Saratoga meet, the second of which was in a stakes race. He broke his maiden over this course and when last seen he was making his return to Hallandale where he won the Sunshine Millions Turf. The Beyer figure he earned is good enough to win and you have to like that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez keeps the mount. Has never faced graded company before, but you'd have to admit that this short field of seven is NOT the strongest graded event you've ever seen.

All Included (3/1) This guy figures to be the short priced favorite, especially while facing only six rivals. If you take the short price, these are the very positives you'll be betting on......He's trained by the best trainer in North America in Todd Pletcher; he's ridden by three-time Eclipse award winning jockey Javier Castellano; he comes into this Grade 3 off a third place finish in a Grade 1 event last time out; and finally he sports five triple digit speed figures on his resume. All of this would seem to make him a legitimate favorite. But before you mortgage the farm, consider these facts.....this time last year on Florida Derby Day he was coming in her off a third place finish, beaten a length, in a Grade 1 and he finished 8th beaten nearly a dozen lengths; he's not won a race since taking an allowance race in July 2015! For what ever reason this winter Javier Castellano has NOT ridden well consistently and has had significantly fewer mounts for Pletcher. BUT, it's noteworthy that he's only 1-for-8 at all other distances on the grass, but a sharp 3-for-6 at this one mile distance on the grass.

My Point Exactly (6/1) You'd have to imagine if you were the owners of this five-year-old you'd look at this rich race, a graded stakes, with a short field without a superstar and say, "Why not?" You've got a "hot horse" who's won two in a row and who obviously loves this course (4/2-0-1). But the fact is that his back-to-back wins have come in the claiming ranks on the front end. If you scan through his past performances his last five stakes races have been losses, and those were all state-bred listed events and this is an open graded stakes. The barn is winning at a big 38% for 2017 and gets a top rider in Paco Lopez. Can take them a long way but in the end he'll probably struggle to last all the way to the wire. A live longshot that WILL give you a run for your money.

Market Outlook (9/2) Last summer you could have claimed this one for a mere $16K out of an Indiana Grande race - trust me, the competition at Indiana in the summer is NOTHING like the competition at Gulfstream in the winter....much less a claiming event compared to a Grade 3. Probably the one angle that goes the farthest in evaluating this guy's chances is this.....On February 15th he lined up in a $35K claiming event here with today's rival My Point Exactly. While that guy went wire to wire, Market Outlook was 8th beaten eleven lengths. Hard to envision him making up nearly a dozen lengths on a runner who's an outsider in here today to win his first graded event.

Siding Spring (10/1) This lightly raced four-year-old is a very intriguing runner, especially if sent off at anywhere near the price listed on the morning line provided by the Daily Racing Form. He began his career with two turf starts - a decisive win at this distance over the unique Kentucky Downs course (has an uphill stretch run), then ran a sharp third in the Grade 3 Bourbon. That impressed his connections enough to catch Derby fever and he moved to the main track to run in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, and Grade 2 Rebel. When he returned to the turf this January he got just his second win. Stepped up to second level allowance off that and was dismissed at more than 20/1 when he scored again. That 95 Beyer fits very well with these and he might be finally realizing just how much talent he truly has. Should sit a good tracking trip for Julian Leparoux today. Interesting.......

Delta Prince (6/1) One of the best things going for this colt is that he appears to have enormous potential. Wouldn't be at all surprised if this fall you look back and say, "I saw him in his first graded stakes back at Gulfstream" as he starts to blossom into a major player in the older turf handicap division. He's trained by Jimmy Jerkens who's had an outstanding meeting, winning 28% of the time. His horses have run lights out which leads me to believe this one will as well. One of the most exciting young riders in the country has ridden quite a lot here, Jose Ortiz and while the sample is small, Ortiz has won at a big 63% rate. After sharp efforts on the main track Delta Prince produced his first win and a big improvement on the Beyer scale when first moved to the turf at this distance, in December HERE. Came back to face entry level allowance runners six weeks ago and won again. For what it's worth Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was aboard both Our Way and Delta Prince in their last out victory and he shows up on Our Way.

The Orchid Stakes

1:53 pm - Race 5

Grade 3 Orchid Stakes

$200,000 - 1 3/8th Mile TURF

Olorda (8/5) On March 5 last spring I was here at Gulfstream and had bet the Grade 3 Very One Stakes. There were six fillies & mares in the field, THREE of which were trained by probably the best turf trainer in North America, Chad Brown. My pick that day was a filly named Dacita who'd been the last to beat the reigning Breeders' Cup champion Tepin. But on that March 5th afternoon the "other Brown filly" Olorda went right to the front and coasted loose on the lead to upset the field, holding on in a photo finish. She showed up next at the strong Keeneland meet and went wire to wire in the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes. After that April win she wasn't seen again until running here last month in the Grade 3 Very One Stakes. She looked to be loose on the lead again and was bet down to 8/5 at post time, including my investment. But she was bumped off stride at the break and had to sprint hard to make the lead. That took enough out of her that by the time they reached the far turn she had nothing left and stopped badly. Now with one under her belt she makes her second start and is nearly certain to improve. She gets a rider change to Javier Castellano who is the "go-to" rider for Brown (28% wins at Gulfstream together). In a short field like this speed can be even more dangerous than it typically is. The concern - if you've been watching the races all winter here, like I have :) - is that from the rail Olorda gets away cleanly today instead of being left at the gate like so many of Castellano's mounts have all winter. But if away alertly the race may be over before they hit the top of the stretch for the first time around.

Summersault (3/1) It's a short field of five; it IS a horse race where often times you can't explain what just happened; and IF you were looking at just the speed figures you would easily say that Summersault fits with these. But one of the most consistent angles in handicapping races of the turf is this - "Class tells on grass." Summersault has been to the post twenty-one times and the LONE start in a stakes race was in a state-bred stakes last May. Sent off at more than 60/1 odds she finished 11th of twelve runners, beaten nearly a dozen lengths. If you're betting here it's in your favor that she's won two in a row, both here; the last at a distance similar to today's and that last race figure was a new career high - maybe a sign that she's in peak form. If you're against you have to be wary of a last out career best figure that was so much out of line with her normal performances and that BOTH wins have come in real dog fights through the lane - hard to imagine she can come out of back-to-back tough efforts, against lesser, to step up into graded stakes and produce a number as good or better than her career best last time out.

Temple Fur (4/1) Like the other four, you cannot dismiss her solely on the fact that she's not a graded stakes winner. If you back her you have to really like that from just eleven starts she's won five of them; and this is clearly her favorite course as she's won four-of-eight here. She's won two stakes races over the course, with a second and a third in her other two stakes appearances and it would appear that she will be the one tracking the front runner to the final turn before making a bid. But with that said, she's NEVER gone beyond a mile and a sixteenth so she'll need to produce a career best, vs. the toughest competition she's ever faced while running a quarter of a mile farther than she's ever run before. Her last-out win came in a $60K starter stakes (a race limited to runners who'd run for a claiming tag) and earned a career best speed figure that is double digit lengths behind what it will take to win this. The rider is 9-for-121 at the meet and the barn is 3-for-31. Match those human connections up with those of Javier Castellano-Chad Brown on the favorite (54 wins for Castellano - 22 wins for Brown) and you see what Temple Fur is up against.

Maquette (12/1) First, the is N-O WAY at all, in any universe know to the human race that anyone who knows anything about horse racing that a Bill Mott European import / turf horse, ridden by hot-riding Jose Ortiz, would EVER go off at double digit odds in a five horse field. That's just stupid. So if you think this will be your "LONGSHOT of the Day" you're wrong. But, with the resume and human connections of the rail runner, that one is nearly certain to be the favorite so you SHOULD get a fair price if you land here. While not ALWAYS true, it is generally true that any European runner who comes to North America will be better than their rivals who run here. That's the first real big plus for taking a closer look at Maquette. She's runs in the colors of international powerhouse throughbred owner Juddmonte Farms. She was a highly regarded $300K sales purchase as a daughter of champion Tapit AND she began her career with back to back wins in France. For years one of the best angles in handicapping was "Bill Mott, off the layoff, on the turf".....today, Maquette comes off the layoff, on the turf, for Bill Mott! If the favorite gets pace pressure and/or does not come away cleanly and/or does not establish an easy lead, it WILL be Maquette that turns for home on the lead to run away with the victory. The most logical alternative to the favorite.

Quiet Kitten (2/1) In this short field, all of them must be considered to have at least a chance to win. I believe that the key to the race may go through this five-year-old mare. Consider these comments to her races listed in the past performances: "set pace," "pressured pace, dueled," "dueled two wide," "dueled in two path," "forwardly placed," "dueled inside," "dueled inside winner," "pressed, led." You get the picture - this one will be pushing the top one which means there SHOULDN'T be any easy lead for the top one. In that previously mentioned March 5th Gr 3 Very One, it was this mare who was tracking Olorda but Quiet Kitten gave way at the top of the stretch. This past January 28th Quiet Kitten tracked the leader only to watch the talented Suffuse blow by to win the Grade 3 La Prevoyante Handicap. Last time out when Olorda had early troubles, it was Quiet Kitten who tracked her to the far turn and when that one gave way it was Quiet Kitten who forged to the lead at a huge 23/1 before watching helplessly as Suffused blew by to draw off by five widening lengths. Either that last race figure of 91 or her three back figure of 92 would be good enough to win this. But look back at Temple Fur, who obviously has obstacles to overcome......in between the two sharp efforts that Quiet Kitten ran she was 7th beaten more than four lengths - as the favorite - to, yep, that's right, none other than Temple Fur.

The Cutler Bay Stakes

5:32 pm - Race 12
The Cutler Bay Stakes

$100,000 - 8 furlongs TURF

Gemologister (12/1) No. And EIGHTEEN time maiden who's only gone long once and stopped badly has no chance, none, to win here.

Erasmo's Dream (5/1) He's run second for a $25K claiming tag in two of his last three starts. Unlikely.

Shiraz (9/2) After producing good efforts in his first four starts, all on the turf, he was a good third in the Grade 3 Dania Beach here in January despite a troubled trip. But despite his obvious turf affinity the connections sent him to sprint over the all-weather track at Ocala in an OBS stakes and then, having not learned their lesson, raced him in an entry level allowance in New York over the winterized inner track at Aqueduct. At least he's earning frequent flyer miles on his credit card as he returns to So Fla, the sunshine and warmth, and most importantly gets back to two turns on the grass. Javier Castellano for trainer Michael Maker today.

Conquest Bandit (10/1) Two back he was life and death to hold on while going wire to wire in a $50K Maiden Claiming event at this one mile trip on the grass. He was claimed away and sent to the front in an optional $50K claiming event last time out by his new connections. I would guess that trainer Michael Maker has entered this one to be the "rabbit" for his Shiraz - entered today to set a fast early pace to guarantee that Shiraz has a good set-up for his late kick.

Mr. Pinocchio (20/1) The good news is that he won his debut racing on the turf HERE. But that was in September against far, FAR lesser company. The speed figure was glacially slow as well. Sent two turns against fellow state-breds in a stakes he was no where to be found on the main track. Comes back off a long break and in apparently overmatched company.

Inheritthewind (6/1) He debuted just four weeks ago and pressed a quick pace going a similar 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf here before edging away late to score. As a $400K son of champion Tapit with strong human connections you have to think they believe they've got a good colt here to enter him in a stakes right off a maiden victory. Might be this good if running to his sales expectations.

Sir Sebastian (8/1) The good news is he leads the field with three wins already in his young career. The bad news is that he's raced exclusively in races with claiming conditions. Unlikely but not out of the question.

Dover Cliffs (7/2) It's my opinion that of the lightly raced runners this one has the best chance to improve. In both of his races he earned big Beyer figures (83-86). One of the most dependable handicapping angles in racing is what's termed the "Double Beyer Advantage" - this is when a horse has two speed figures in their last two races that are BOTH better than any lifetime figure earned by his rivals. Such is the case with Dover Cliffs! It's been my experience that the Double Beyer angle is a strong one, but like all handicapping angles those types do lose sometimes. And I would have to admit that when the Double Beyer advantage does not work is often with lightly raced horses and with horses exiting maiden wins where both "big figures" were earned against maiden rivals and today they face winners. This too, unfortunately is the case with Dover Cliffs. Would love to know why top rider Luis Saez is NOT back on board today - but it's not because he picked another rival as Saez is not riding this race. And hot riding Jose Ortiz is a more than capable substitute for Saez. In fact while the sample is very small, you have to say, WOW to the fact that Ortiz is winning at a 75% clip here for this barn! WOW!

Write In Candidate (15/1) Two back he lost for a maiden $35K tag, then stepped up to beat a weak maiden $50K field last time out. I'm against.

Major Key (6/1) While it's true he won , on the turf, three back AND that it was against horses that had already won a race.....he was 20/1 that day and in his other three races most recently he's been beaten a combined 42 lengths. I'd be surprised.

The Sanibel Stakes

3:23 pm - Race 8
The Sanibel Stakes

$100,000 - 8 furlongs TURF

Conquest Hardcandy (5/1) Showed MONSTROUS improvement when allowed to stretch out to two turns and get on the inner turf course in her second start after debuting in a Belmont dirt sprint. Her Beyer made a gigantic move forward when nearly doubling from that 41 first start figure to an 82 when surprising a maiden turf field here, winning at odds of 35/1. The first start off a maiden win is often the most difficult transition for a thoroughbred, so that she led the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride field into the stretch while setting fast fractions from the widest of seven posts has to be considered a positive despite her late fade. "Early speed, class drop" has consistently produced winners for me throughout the 20,000 races I've played over the last decade plus of handicapping. Journeyman Edgar Zayas is a question mark for me. Certainly looks like the one to catch, especially from the rail draw.

Accepting (7/2) The story on Accepting is nearly identical to that of the rail drawn filly. Debuted on the dirt and showed little; second start was going long on the turf and she more than doubled her speed figure (37-to-71) when upsetting a Belmont turf sprint at 10/1. Showed speed into the stretch in her first try vs. winners, like the rail filly in a stakes race. But unlike the one inside her, Accepting has run twice vs. allowance foes here this winter. How you evaluate her flat finish vs. 2nd level allowance fillies as the 8/5 favorite last time out will determine if you do or don't like her chances today. Third off the layoff is often a runner's penultimate performance and she gets a strong rider upgrade to Paco Lopez today. Like her chances but I'd be reluctant to take her at a short price.

Colorincolonel (15/1) Because it's horse racing and anything can happen I try to give something positive about everyone on Florida Derby Day. But I just cannot here :( The barn is a woeful 3-for-108; the horse is an equally sorry 1-for-18 in her career. She's only been on the turf twice, beaten a combined 20 lengths in those two efforts. It's a big N-O for me.

Scheme (8/1) Might be the most interesting filly in the race and if sent to the post at odds of anything close to those offered by the Daily Racing Form here she might be a good price play. She debuted here in December and not many gave her a chance, sending her off at odds of 27/1. As they approached the far turn she 7th in a field of twelve. She fell back to 10th on the turn then exploded through the lane, splitting horses to get to the front and draw off as easily best! Since then she's worked sensationally and just might be this good. When horses workout in the morning a workout of five furlongs with a time of one minute is considered a sign of a horse ready for a superb racing effort. In three of Scheme's morning works she ran a bullet (best workout of the morning) going five furlongs in a sizzling :59.2; produced another bullet work in a flat 1 minute for five furlongs; and most recently had a best of 22 bullet work and a smoking :59 flat for five furlongs. She is obviously ready to roll today. The barn has had a big meet with 27% winners from just 11 starters. One to watch. If she takes a lot of money, especially early it would be a sign to me that "somebody knows something!"

Happy Mesa (6/1) After debuting for a modest $40K in a dirt sprint at Laurel in Maryland, trainer Graham Motion allowed this daughter of champion Sky Mesa to try the inner course where her bloodlines indicated she'd love the grassy surface. She responded to win the Selima Stakes sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs. Her Beyer figure leaped from 50 to 74, an indication that she's got immense talent on the turf. With the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf in mind Motion sent his filly to Santa Anita and entered her in the prep race for that Grade 1 Championship in the one mile Surfer Girl Stakes. Going two turns for the first time after having shipped across the country she responded with a late running second despite the fact her rider lost the whip. She was a big 50/1 in the Breeders' Cup event finishing 12th beaten nine lengths. She stayed out west and tried the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante at Del Mar (where this fall's Breeders' Cup will be - and I have tickets! WHOOO HOOOO!). A troubled trip resulted in a disappointing 7th place finish. Back home to Maryland to regroup for her sophomore season she made her 2017 debut in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes. She was 30/1 that day but top rider Florent Geroux had her in good position for a winning bid when she was forced to steady in traffic in the stretch. When finally able to get running room she closed with a rush to be fourth, beaten less than two lengths. The move to this listed event should be right up her alley. And a hidden indicator of her improvement is this.....in that BC effort she was beaten about 8 lengths by a quality filly named Coasted who was 2nd in the BC; in the Gr 3 H'bride race Coasted was again 2nd, but only a length in front of Happy Mesa. Her workout on March 25th was a very sharp :59.2 five furlong move telling me she's primed for a huge effort on the drop in class.

Fancy Kitten (4/1) It's horse racing so anything can happen; and this is lightly raced three-year-olds where truly anything can happen, especially going long on the turf. But it's a real stretch to support this daughter of champion Kitten's Joy. The barn is struggling with a 1-for-29 mark this year; Joe Bravo is only 8-for-149, a 5% win average; AND she's still a maiden (has yet to win a race). If she's 4/1 as the Daily Racing Form predicts at post time then TRULY somebody knows something that I do not.

Take A Deep Breath (10/1) Who ever makes the morning line odds for the Daily Racing Form has some 'spaing to do here......how do you make a MAIDEN runner like Fancy Kitten 4/1, while a European import like this filly 10/1? Euros are widely agreed to be more talented than their North American rivals and this one had a win in her native Ireland then was second in a Group 3 race! Came to the US and was 2nd, beaten a neck as the even money favorite in Tampa for trainer Tom Proctor who's winning at a big nearly 30% mark this winter. Ronnie Allen is a good Tampa rider, but today Proctor gets the services of one of the rising stars in racing in Jose Ortiz. Look out my friends.

Grizzel (12/1) She's another Euro import and that alone makes her a win candidate. But unlike the filly to her inside this one has already been out ten times with only two wins. And her efforts in Group events were not good. And perhaps the biggest worry is she's never done anything but sprint, including a fourth in a turf sprint here at 4/1 odds. That was disappointing enough that the rider, Jose Ortiz, sees fit to jump to another.

Taperge (6/1) If you're making your pick based on trainer-jockey connections then you are going to land here. It's hard to argue against ANY Chad Brown turf runner, but he's especially effective with fillies on the grass, like this. Nationally where ever he runs, if Brown has a good one in a stakes it's nearly always Javier Castellano who rides, and that's true today. In her debut she was a well bet 9/2 but showed nothing over the Aqueduct inner turf in early November. But making her So Fla debut in early January she trailed though a very slow pace, but had enough talent to carry Castellano into the winner's circle as the tepid 3/1 post time favorite. In her first try vs. winners she again caught a slow pace and ran closer to the pace which might have compromised her late kick, but she was still good enough to finish a best-of-the-rest second. And it's noteworthy that she outran today's rival Accepting (who's listed at shorter odds despite having more losses and running not nearly as well last time out) in that spot while making her first try vs. winners while Accepting was making her third try vs. winners. The faster the pace up front the better her chances it would seem.

From Ria To Riches (20/1) I'm not sure what to make of her showing up here. She's NEVER been on the grass and all of her racing prior to the most recent was at the "lower level" tracks of Mountaineer in West Virginia and Thistledowns in Cleveland. Her connections sent her here to try the Grade 2 Davona Dale where she finished tenth at odds of 196/1. The rider is 2-for-84 and she's stuck out wide in the gate. Would be a HUGE surprise.

Florida Derby Day Analysis 2017

Florida Derby Day 2017

This year's Florida Derby Card is made up of fourteen races with post time for the first race being at noon. Click the links below to see a horse-by-horse analysis for each of the stakes races. Note that I will give you my analysis and wagering strategy for ALL of the races on race day. Good luck and may all your photo finishes be winning ones :)

Today's Stakes Racing Menu:

12:00 pm - Race 1

Allowance Optional Claiming nw2x - 7 furlongs

12:28 pm - Race 2

Maiden Claiming (3yo) - 7 1/2 furlongs TURF

12:56 - Race 3

Claiming - 7 furlongs

1:24 pm - Race 4