The Sir Shackelton Stakes

2:53 pm - Race 7

The Sir Shackelton Stakes
$100,000 - 7 furlongs

Grand Billi (6/1) It's not hard to make a case for this five-year-old here.  First, at this difficult and demanding seven furlong sprint distance he's got a win and two seconds from four starts.  Secondly, he won a Grade 3 ON THIS TRACK and AT THIS DISTANCE!  Third, he's twice raced competitively against two of the best sprinters in the country when fifth behind XY Jet last February and 5th behind BC Sprint champion Runhappy in the 2015 Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga.  AND you get Javier Castellano in the saddle today who's ridden him to BOTH of his last two wins.  So what's NOT to like you ask?  If you factor in trainer numbers, it's worrisome that the barn here is only 2-for-60 at the meeting and overall in 2017 they are 1-for-56.  If you don't have your calculator, that 2%.....yes TWO percent.  You could say that he needed his last when pressing the pace early before fading to French Quarter (who's just to his outside today) and you could say that Castellano back on board will make a difference.  You could say that.....

French Quarter (9/2) He is the quickest of those drawn inside and he almost certainly will take them to the far turn, if not farther.  You have to take a second look when realizing that trainer David Fawkes claimed this one for a big $62K last time out and brings him back in a stakes race on Florida Derby Day!  He's won two in a row with jockey Nik Juarez on board and despite the owner/trainer change Juarez agrees to ride back today.  The concern I have is that of the twelve races showing in his past performances NINE of them were at six furlongs or shorter.  And the three times he ventured beyond three-quarters of a mile (like today), he faded in ALL of them.  Looks to be in front early and then if you have a ticket on him you'll be screaming, "WHERE'S THE WIRE!" as they turn for home.

Bluegrass Singer (7/2) Trainer Dale Romans typically spends the winter here getting his horses ready for big efforts at his home base of Churchill Downs in the spring.  And "the book" on Romans at Gulfstream has traditionally been to wait until it's late in the meet and his horses have a race or two under their belt as they begin to peak towards their Louisiville spring/summer campaign.  But this year Romans has sent out winners throughout the meeting and boasts a strong 21% win average.  One of those was this guy who earned a career best 102 speed figure going wire to wire in a one-turn mile race last time out.  Scan down his past performances and two things leap off the page.  First, you can see that he was once highly regarded and was entered in three straight graded stakes.  The other thing you note is that he's been beaten by BOTH French Quarter and Grand Billi - in fact, he was the pace setter in Grand Billi's win in the Gr 3 Carry Back at this distance in July 2015, finishing 9th beaten over twenty lengths.  But that was two years ago and he appears to be in peak form.  Must avoid a pace duel with French Quarter, and it would seem (to me at least) that the turn back from one mile to seven furlongs will enable him to press that leader to the turn and be the one to catch late.

Mr. Jordan (5/1) If there was such a thing as a "Thoroughbred Dictionary" where words were defined in terms of horse racing (and wouldn't THAT be great!), the word "enigmatic" would have a full page color picture of this beautiful white/gray horse.  As a two-year-old he won his first three races, including two juvenile stakes races.  Two heart-breaking losses to start his 3yo season (I CLEARLY remember one when I was on the rail and he "WON" only to be DQ'd as my top bet) sent him to Monmouth Park where he rebounded with a big win in the Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes.  The connections thought they were good enough to take on Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Grade 1 Haskell, where they got their hat handed to them.  He was always close without getting that next elusive win until he exploded at Parx in Philadelphia to win by nine lengths.  He came south and was the prohibitive favorite in the Sunshine Millions Classic Preview and won again as much the best.  But there's a big difference between competition at Gulfstream Park West in the fall and stakes races here in the winter and Mr. Jordan has been a well beaten 7th and 6th in Grade 3 company in his last two.  A return to his best would make him a threat today.  Have to have some reservations that he's not sprinted since sometime in 2015 if not earlier.

Hammers Vision (4/1) Especially in a race like this that would appear to be without a legitimate favorite, this one appeals.  He's earned a big 96 Beyer speed figure not once but TWICE and AT THIS DISTANCE.  That's huge, as many of his rivals today have questions about producing their best at this level.  And he comes off a big effort to win here of a long break - so you'd think he might take a step forward today.  But that last out win was in a non-winners of THREE LIFETIME event so the move into stakes company is a big step up.  Jockey Julian Leparoux is winning at a huge 37% for trainer Brian Lynch with a positive return of $2.42 for ever $2 bet on them as a team.  He's worked sharply since that win and will be tracking the weakening front runners into the turn.  Is he good enough here?

The Truth Or Else (6/1) Let's face it, we're going to have to go out on a limb if we play this race.  Somebody is going to have to step up to reward our risk taking investment.  Well, on Hammers Vision you have to ask if he's good enough to make the step up in class; this guy does not appear to be a legitimate threat on his last couple and scanning down his past performances there are many races that do NOT fit here.  But using some creative filters I can make a case for this guy......Toss the last when going two turns, he's a better sprinter; toss the two back that while it WAS at this seven furlong distance, when they run races at that distance at Delta Downs it is a two-turn race; three back he was a winner going a similar 6 1/2 furlongs in a $100K Optional Allowance which would measure up closely to the class of this event.  Toss the one mile Gr 3 Ack Ack, and the try in the Gr 1 Forego.  A good number for the fifth place finish in the six furlong Tale of the Cat where he ran out of room.  At today's distance with a near-certain collapse on the front end, his late closing kick makes him the one to fear rolling late through the lane.

Fire Mission (8/1) We're faced with conflicting angles here - winning at seven furlongs previously is a strong angle in a seven furlong race like this.  And Fire Mission is 5/2-1-1 at the distance.  So we know he CAN win at the distance.  But his last several races have all been for mid-level claiming tags/conditions.  The step up into a $100K stakes on Florida Derby Day is asking a lot.  But perhaps the key to this one's chances is this.....two back when racing for a $30K tag he was claimed by top trainer Jorge Navarro.  He stepped him up immediately into a minor stakes event that required all runners to have run for a claiming tag.  And first time for Navarro he won.  Now Navarro moves him up into this $100K spot, and look who's agreed to ride, the top rider at the meet, Luis Saez - who was on board for the claiming try and the first out win for the barn.  Sneaky good - can we get a price?

Aces For John (20/1) If we were in Las Vegas and could make what are called "proposition bets," this one would be the mortal lock of the day if the bet was, "Who has the LEAST chance of winning today?"  Granted it's a horse race and a winner last week here at Gulfstream paid $206.40 for a $2 bet so never say never.  But the facts are these......Aces For John is 3-for-34 lifetime, running for a barn that is 2-for-32; he's been beaten by three of today's rivals and his lone try in a stakes saw him run 6th, beaten more than fifteen lengths by Mr. Jordan at odds of better than 60/1.  I just cannot see it here.

Seventh Sense (12/1) He's lightly raced and you could make the case that of all of these he has the best chance to move forward and surprise.  And if you're willing to believe that then you can look at his maiden win a year ago at Santa Anita, going 6 1/2 furlongs - similar to today's 7 furlongs - where he earned a 92 speed figure and that makes him believable.  But since that win he's not run within double digit lengths of that number and in every one of the six races since, not most but E-V-E-R-Y one of them, he's faded from the pace call to the wire.  Add in jockey Joe Bravo who is really struggling this winter with 8 wins from 149 mounts (saw him lose last week with a prohibitive 1/5 favorite and this week with a much-the-best 3/2 favorite) and you have to be worried that this one has a much better chance to NOT improve than to step forward.

2017 Florida Derby

6:40 - Race 14

Grade 1 - $1 Million Xpressbet

FLORIDA DERBY

1 1/8 Mile

State of Honor (8/1) If you are looking at strictly his past performances you like him a lot more than when taking him in comparison to the rest of the field.  He was second in a photo finish here in the first big race for three-year-olds of the year, the Mucho Macho Man.  Then he went to Tampa and was third behind the unbeaten current Kentucky Derby favorite McCracken and Todd Pletcher's Tapwrit.  Then last out he was the pace setter in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.  He held on to beat seven of the eight others but was no match for Tapwrit.  Today he takes the blinkers off which typically would be done to allow him to relax off the lead.  However, he's drawn the rail and that gives him little alternatives than to shoot to the front and show some front running/pace pressing speed.  That will probably just help set the table for one of the top two favorites.

Talk Logistics (30/1) He was an admirable third in the Mucho Macho Man to start the year but was a nowhere-to-be-found fourth in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, and an equally distant fourth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.  Would be a big surprise to see him run fast enough to win this $1 Million race.

Charlie the Greek (50/1) Five of his last six starts have been in claiming races for a moderate $35K tag.  What possibly could make his connections think it was a good idea to step up to a Grade 1 $1 Million race.  NO.....he's this race's "bet bet" to NOT win.

Always Dreaming (4/1) Of the seventy-five plus horses I've analyzed today for the nine stakes races this one is THE MOST intriguing.  Trainer Todd Pletcher is absolutely loaded with three-year-old colts who all have aspirations of running for the roses on the first Saturday in May.  Nearly all of Pletcher's best ones debut here in the winter but for some reason Always Dreaming was sent to Tampa for his three-year-old debut.  You couldn't fool the handicappers that day as he went wire to wire on that Wednesday afternoon drawing off by nearly a dozen lengths as a much the best winner.  Should have been a big neon sign that he would win as jockey John Velazquez made the trip to Tampa instead of riding her that afternoon.  Next time out I had Always Dreaming - and that day I made these remarks, "I next to never bet last-out maiden winners vs. allowance company for the first time; and I next to never bet Tampa shippers to Gulfstream, least of all a last-out maiden winner at Tampa to face Gulfstream allowance rivals."  But on that day in the Saturday I did - as did nearly every other bettor on the grounds as Always Dreaming went wire-to-wire as easily best.  But the pace that day - oh my, was painfully, excruciatingly slow as no one and I mean NO ONE challenged him throughout the running.  I've been waiting for a month to see Pletcher's Battalion Runner run in the Florida Derby but when I read this week that Pletcher had this colt and Battalion Runner both under consideration for the race and would nearly certainly scratch Battalion Runner, I was very disappointed.  But, hey, who am I to argue with Todd Pletcher?

Quinientos (50/1) Sixth beaten nearly fifteen lengths at 200/1 in the Fountain of Youth by today's favorite.  THIS would be a headline-making win if he pulled off the shocking upset.

Coleman Rocky (30/1) His first two dirt starts saw him lose by a combined 33 lengths.  Then two turf starts, including his lone win.  But in an off-the-turf event he was a late running third giving his connections dreams of winning the Derby.  He'll be 50/1 despite having top jockey Jose Ortiz.  Not as big as a surprise as the one inside of him, but would be a shocker.

Unbridled Holiday (30/1) To his credit he was third with little chance to catch Always Dreaming in his last, his first start off a maiden win vs. state-bred competition.  But the barn is 3-for-45 and he'd have to make a major, MAJOR improvement today to challenge even the non-favored Pletcher runner.

Impressive Edge (12/1) After back-to-back losses as a two-year-old for trainer Steve Asmussen he was moved to trainer Dale Romans' barn.  He immediately responded in his first start as a 3yo to win going away.  The Pletcher barn had the runner-up that day, Patch, who came right back to win and is entered with a fair chance in today's $1 Million Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.  Impressive Edge went in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes next and probably was compromised not only by facing first time winners, but also racing at a distance not exactly his best despite the maiden win.  He came back to dominate a seven furlong entry-level allowance while earning a speed figure way below what it will take to win here today, but as a $400K sales purchase his connections are willing to try the "big boys" today.  Not without a chance.

Battalion Runner (3/1) At the beginning of the week it was announced that despite being owned by Florida Panthers owner Vincent Viola and running here over a track he's a perfect 2-for-2, this Pletcher colt would make his next start in the Grade 1 $1 Million Santa Anita Derby.  It was further announced he'd be entered here just in case something went awry with Always Dreaming.  Then two days ago it was announced that the connections didn't want to go all the way to California and would enter here, but the plan is to send Battalion Runner to the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby on April 18th.  Now that Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion Classic Empire has indicated he will run in Arkansas I wonder if that makes the Pletcher camp have a change of heart?  In BOTH starts he was my "BET of the WEEK" - I think he's ultra talented.

Three Rules (8/1) This guy owned Gulfstream last summer going unbeaten while crushing his fellow juveniles and sweeping the Florida Sire Stakes.  Thought to be good enough to take on the best of his generation he was sent to So Cal to run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  No where to be found that day.  Came back here and kicked off his 3yo season in the Grade 2 Swale he pressed the pace and took the lead at the top of the stretch only to be caught late by a lightly raced closer who benefited from the race flow to score at a nice price (as my top choice!).  He had high hopes in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and was clear on the front end heading into the far turn but he was inhaled by today's favorite as he faded to third.  Not sure if the connections really believe he can win, but he gets a chance to redeem himself and he's the clear speed of the race.  Gulfstream is typically kind to frontrunners, especially on big stakes days like this.  Dangerous if he can last to the wire, but it would appear a minor share is the most likely outcome.

Gunnevera (9/5) He's one of the highest rated three-year-olds in the country for the Kentucky Derby based on his 2yo resume and his very impressive win in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.  As a deep closer he needs a fast pace and racing luck.  And you have to factor in that the connections KNOW he does not have to win the Florida Derby to get to the Kentucky Derby....if you were the connections wouldn't your primary target be THE Kentucky Derby?  Sure, let's win the Florida Derby if we can, but if there's trouble or you have to ask for his absolute best, don't - that would be my instructions.  The day I want my 3yo star to run his heart out would be under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.  For me as well I thought he was compromised in the Gr 2 Holy Bull when Irish War Cry coasted on a loose lead, then was completely set up in the Gr 2 Ftn of Youth when there was a very fast pace for him to rally into.  Today I don't think he gets the same kind of set up.  Considering the race flow and that he's primary target is the Kentucky Derby I look for him to run well, but not win.  But then again, he may simply be way too god for these and score because he's just the fastest horse and most talented horse.

The Honey Fox Stakes

4:25 pm - Race 10

Grade 2 Honey Fox Stakes

$300,000 - 1 Mile TURF

Lori's Store (8/1) It would appear to me that this one is not a good bet if you're looking to bet to WIN, but if you're playing the exacta or better yet the trifecta, then this one is a good bet to run strongly at big odds, without winning.  Lori's Store runs very well here at Gulfstream with a 13/4-1-2 record including two stakes wins.  Last winner she was the popular, even money favorite when winning the $150K Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf.  But since that January 2016 effort she's only raced three times.  The first two she showed little, but last time out in the Sand Springs she was a good third.  That effort is even better considering that the top two finishers raced 1-2 around the course with both of them short priced favorites and Lori's Store was best of the rest.  The bad news is that the winner, who was daylight lengths clear of Lori's Store is back today.

Dad's Princess (15/1) If you're looking for a big priced runner who has a chance, and it is horse racing and as Jim Carey's character said in the film, "Dumb and Dumber" when told he had a one-in-a-million chance, "so you're saying I've got a chance."  Dad's Princess has a couple of Beyer figures in the low 90s that would be good enough to make her a win candidate, including a third in the Grade 3 My Charmer in November.  But the fact that she's lost her last two which were in non-winners of 3-LIFETIME competition, I'd find her winning this a huge surprise.

Inside Out (4/1) As good as any of the price plays, and at least she's run against open competition (unlike Dad's Princess).  But her last win was in June and she was fifth at 30/1 odds in the Grade 3 Marshua's River earlier this winter.  She was a close second to today's rival Mississippi Delta last time out (which begs the question why is that one listed at 15/1 by the DRF odds maker and Inside Out who LOST is 4/1?....just sayin').  Would take a career effort to finish in the top three in my opinion.  Note she's entered in a turf race on the Thursday afternoon card.

Jodesanimaux (3/1) Interesting, very interesting.  In horse racing one "truism" is that some horses just run better over certain tracks or courses.  And this five-year-old mare is one of those.  She's 1-for-9 at all other race tracks, but here at Gulfstream she is a big 4-for-6 and has earned strong speed figures when at her best.  She was the 5/2 post time favorite in her most recent but disappointed when running third beaten by BOTH Mississippi Delta and Inside Out.  But that was her first start since October 1st and she may well have needed that one as well as been pointing towards this race.  Love the fact that John Velazquez takes over to ride today.  If there's a pace melt down she will be the one running best at the end.

Celestine (2/1) About the only reason you can make a case to bet against this one is that you won't bet the favorite.  Consider this.....the other six are a combined 1-for-18 in graded stakes, with that lone victory being a Grade 2 win.  By contrast Celestine is a two-time graded stakes winner, including a win in the Grade 1 Just A Game last summer.  She obviously loves this course as she's run up a 7/4-1-2 record locally and that includes a win in THIS RACE last spring and a last out victory over multiple Grade 1 winner Catch A Glimpse in the Sand Springs.  Next to no one can ever outrun Catch A Glimpse to the front, but Celestine did and drew off as easily best that afternoon.  Not only is she the class of the field, but she might be the only one who wants the lead here.  There isn't a better bet in horse racing than "Lone Speed" and if that happens to be with the most talented, fastest, and classiest runner in the field then it's nearly always a win for that front running horse.  She'll probably be 3/5 or so at post time and with Jose Ortiz on board.  If someone insists on the lead, Celestine has won from a pressing trip so that also works in her favor.  Very hard to look past at short odds it would seem.

Mississippi Delta (15/1) The "pros" will tell you that in the long run you will make more money in handicapping horse races if you play those runners who have a chance to win at a fair price rather than the "most obvious" horse as short priced favorites.  With that in mind you can make a strong case for Mississippi Delta who comes in her off a win in a strong event - beating two of today's six rivals.  Before you point out that she was winning in allowance company consider that this time last year she was second at 12/1 odds behind Celestine in THIS VERY RACE!  She's a six-time winner on the turf and she's 3/2-1-0 here at Gulfstream.  Gets one of the best turf riders around in Jose Lezcano who was on board for that win last out.  Dangerous at a fair price.

Linda (5/1) IF the favorite is to go down, then this would be where I'd be looking.  The lightly raced Linda went 0-for-4 to start her career, but all those were on the main track.  When given the opportunity to try the grass she responded immediately with a win and more importantly her Beyer figure leaped from a 66 to an 84.  She produced a near identical number when taking on first time winners AND WON right back with an improved 86 figure.  Six weeks later she tried the Grade 3 Valley View field at Keeneland and was a best-of-the-rest 2nd at 9/1, outfinishing a next out winner.  She stepped up to the Grade 2 Ms Revere at Churchill in October and she drew off to win by daylight against her rival three-year-old rivals.  Those two stakes efforts earned figures of 94 and 96 and if you're looking at strictly the numbers, the race favorite, Celestine earned a 95 and 97 in her last two turf races.  I won't argue if you want to back this one at a price.  But I will point out she's facing older stakes runners for the first time, coming off a long layoff, for a barn that's 3-for-56 overall.  For those of you that know or follow me you know that I have "issues" with jockey Julian Leparoux, and he rides here.  It's not just me though in this instance.  Over the last two years he's been on 32 horses for this barn and has posed in the winner's circle on TWO occasions.  Ouch

Gulfstream Park Oaks

4:57 pm - Race 11
Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks

$250,000 - 8 1/2 furlongs

Conquest Sorceror (15/1) This filly is one of the few running in a stakes race this afternoon that I give virtually no chance to.  First, it's going to take a speed figure in the low 80s or better to win this $250K Grade 2 event which will propel the winner into the $1 Million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday of May.  This one has never run faster than a 65 - and THAT was the only time she's ever cleared the 50 plateau!  In addition she's a maiden still seeking her first win.  It IS interesting that she moves to a new barn today and they choose this spot.  

Tequilita (5/1) Toss this filly's troubled debut and all you have left on the page are excellent efforts.  She won her maiden at the tough Keeneland fall meet as the 6/5 favorite while beating a next out winner.  She tried stakes company at Laurel and proved the popular winner of the Sunny's Halo at six furlongs as the even money favorite.  That was mid-November and she shipped her for her 2017 debut while trying the one-turn mile of the Grade 2 Forward Gal.  The crowd dismissed her at odds of nearly 15/1 but she ran down graded stakes winning favorite Pretty City Dancer that day to come in here as a logical winner.  She tries two turns for the first time but as a daughter of Union Rags, a champion of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, she's got the bloodlines to appreciate the added ground today.  Top Gulfstream rider Luis Saez rides back today after guiding her to that Forward Gal upset victory.

Summer Luck (4/1) This filly is bound to improve as the distances extend throughout the year.  And that probably is a good way to view her three-year-old races.  After winning the one-turn mile MSW at Churchill in the fall to conclude her 2yo season, she debuted here in the six furlong Old Hat Stakes.  She was a late-running third that day.  Stretched to seven furlongs she was a sharp 4th, closing from eighth in the Grade 2 Forward Gal behind today's rival Tequilita.  Last time out she got the one-turn mile of the Grade 2 Davona Dale and was making a winning move when forced to alter course in the stretch but still was third, beaten only 3/4 of a length.  Finally today she gets to go two turns and if she gets in gear soon enough she can run down the field before they reach the first finish line of the short stretch here today.  Note that Summer Luck is cross-entered for the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks in New Orleans today - which may be interesting.

Spring Mist (10/1) She took four starts before breaking her maiden, and all of them at Tampa Bay Downs.  Typically the competition is a notch below that of Gulfstream, especially in the three-year-old divisions so you have to be suspicious that she can step up from a MSW win at Tampa to beat a Grade 2 field at Gulfstream.  If you're a fan of Javier Castellano, you'll get him at a price on this one today.

Jordan's Henny (8/1) Re-read the comments above on Spring Mist.  Here's the PERFECT example of how the rule in horse racing is "there are no rules!"  Jordan's Henny had run six times in maiden company without a win until finally breaking through two races back.  Off that maiden win - seeing the connection now? - she was entered in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and facing an odds-on favorite.  At 19/1 she battled the entire way and finished second beaten a mere half length by a filly who had already won in stakes company.  As good as any other, she projects to be the leader for as far as she can take them.

Salty (3/1) If you are looking for the best, last-race speed figure, look no further.  Salty debuted here in February and was closing ground rapidly to miss by just a neck to a Todd Pletcher filly that was the even money favorite.  She returned off that effort and ran away from her maiden special rivals while traveling seven furlongs to earn that big speed figure.  She stretches out two turns today and looks every bit the win contender.

Nonna Bella (7/2) I hate to start off the upside for this filly with negative remarks about another - my Mom always said if you don't have something nice to say then don't say anything at all - but I have to tell you that as good as Salty looks, she was 24/1 in that debut behind an even money Pletcher filly - that filly was Nonna Bella!  She came back off her maiden win to beat allowance rivals as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite.  The speed figure she earned in her win was 80, compared to her debut maiden win of 83.  What to make of that compared to Salty's improved figure?  I wouldn't put a lot of stock into it as I would say that she was not primed for her peak performance nor asked for her absolute best when winning that last out event as Pletcher probably had this one circled on the calendar for her next start.  It's an added plus that top NY owner Michael Repole runs a lot of his best horses with Todd Pletcher and nearly all the good ones have jockey John Velazquez in the saddle - the three are reunited again today on this homebred daughter of champion Stay Thirsty - who also was trained by Pletcher and ridden by Velazquez.  I also think that it's a very positive sign that the filly who tested Nonna Bella in that last out allowance win shipped to the Fair Grounds and will run as one of the principals in the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks this afternoon.

Shezaprado (50/1) After losing by nearly fifteen lengths in her dirt debut for a modest $30K she's raced exclusively on the turf since....all in events that carried claiming conditions.  The move to the main track and up into a graded stakes makes little sense to me.  A rank outsider.

Modacious (6/1) While I am not a big fan of this filly winning the race, especially from a wide post with the quick run to the first turn, she is not without positive merits.  She won her debut at Parx, but then in her So Fla debut she was a close second behind the very promising Todd Pletcher filly Ghalia.  All Ghalia did after that win was ship to Arizona and win the Sunland Park Oaks.  Modacious dueled on the lead in the Grade 2 Davona Dale last out in her first try beyond six furlongs.  She faded late to be fourth but often times "second time long" is a strong win angle, so her second start at a distance of ground might produce a big effort here.

Pan American Stakes

6:06 pm - Race 13

Grade 2 Pan American Stakes
$200,000 - 1 1/2 Mile TURF

Designed For War (10/1) It would NOT be a shocking upset if this guy won this Grade 2 event, but it would be a surprise.  His lone win since a maiden victory in August 2014 - yes, 2014 - came in a photo finish last November in allowance company.  But last time out was his first time for a new trainer and he earned a new career best speed figure while finishing an even, close fourth.

Sadler's Joy (5/1) You have to say "pip, pip" and give kudos to this lightly raced son of champion Kitten's Joy.  After running strong speed figures in his first four starts without winning he finally broke through last August at the always tough to win at Saratoga meet.  He liked having his photo taken so much that he beat entry level allowance runners in his next start - very unusual in thoroughbred racing.  Then he beat 2nd level allowance runners in his NEXT start.  Those two races produced nearly identical new career best speed figures.  Given a break of ten weeks he made his next start in the Grade 2 William L. McKnight Invitational and came flying from the back to finish second, beaten a head at 8/1 odds behind Taghleeb, who's lined up in the gate next door.  Impressive, even more so considering Taghleeb was winning his third stakes in his last five starts, all vs. stakes company.  Might be good enough to take yet another step forward after earning yet another new career best speed figure.

Taghleeb (7/2) He's won two straight, both in stakes company here.  And after winning the two-mile Jerkens two back you KNOW he'll have no problem with the distance of a mile and a half today.  He's won three of his last five all in stakes, but you have to wonder how far he can carry this run as prior to this set of races he was on a losing streak of at least six starts dating back to December of 2015.

Snag (12/1) It's not often that you find Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez on a long shot, especially in a stakes race, most especially at Gulfstream.  But such is the case with this one who's only got a maiden win and has yet to run a figure good enough to be seriously considered here.  Note he was 40/1 against Taghleeb two back in the Jerkens and was a well beaten 6th.  But, it is Pletcher-Velazquez.

Patterson Cross (5/1) He was beaten back in September by today's rival Sadler's Joy so it's no surprise when he faced that one and Taghleeb in the Grade 3 McKnight that he was nearly 40/1.  But into the stretch he was in front!  Just missed holding on when third behind those two beaten a length.  He got a little more respect when sent off at 9/1 in the Grade 2 MacDiarmida last out and he came within a photo-finish head of beating Grade 1 winner Wake Forest.  Is in career form and maybe today's his day!  Love the fact he runs for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (who I met in Tampa a couple of weeks ago!) and that he's earned identical 99 speed figures in his last two.  Often times when a horse "pairs" figures it's a sign of an impending big effort.

Reporting Star (5/1) His last victory came exactly one year ago when he won the Grade 3 Appleton going a mile on the turf, beating a horse by the name of Divisidero.  That guy - one of my favorites - came back to win the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day for me and pay over $15!  But it's been a long time and he is a 7yo AND was the pace setter in the MacDiarmida last out before fading to be third, but it was a 3-way photo finish.  Castellano picks up the mount.

Montclair (6/1) Three back he was a surprising 2nd at 22/1 behind Sadler's Joy.  Two back he was a surprising 2nd to Taghleeb at 9/1 odds.  Last out he was 15/1 and ninth behind the both of them.  I'd be surprised.

Mr. Maybe (9/2) He's a five time turf winner for top turf conditioner Chad Brown.  And he's got a Grade 3 win on his resume.  AND he was the 3/1 post time favorite in the previously discussed Grade 3 McKnight but was way, WAY too far back for Castellano in one of many such ridden races this winter.  Gets his fourth jockey in as many races, and as a one-run deep closer he has to count on a fast pace and racing luck.  Not a fan of the outside post either.

The Appleton Stakes

1:24 pm - Race 4

Grade 3 Appleton Stakes

$200,000 - 1 Mile TURF

Diamond Bachelor (5/1) The good news is that this six-year-old won back-to-back stakes races over this course in the fall while earning strong Beyer figures.  The bad news is that the competition goes to an entirely different level in the winter and he was 11th beaten 24 lengths in the Gr 2 Fort Lauderdale at 70/1 and 12th beaten more than a dozen lengths in the Gr 3 William L. McKnight at 40/1 in his last two turf tries here this winter.  He will show speed from the rail.

Our Way (7/2) This lightly raced four-year-old has shown a lot of talent in his career and this one mile distance appears to be his best trip.  He's won three of his last four starts with two of those coming at the very competitive Saratoga meet, the second of which was in a stakes race.  He broke his maiden over this course and when last seen he was making his return to Hallandale where he won the Sunshine Millions Turf.  The Beyer figure he earned is good enough to win and you have to like that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez keeps the mount.  Has never faced graded company before, but you'd have to admit that this short field of seven is NOT the strongest graded event you've ever seen.

All Included (3/1) This guy figures to be the short priced favorite, especially while facing only six rivals.  If you take the short price, these are the very positives you'll be betting on......He's trained by the best trainer in North America in Todd Pletcher; he's ridden by three-time Eclipse award winning jockey Javier Castellano; he comes into this Grade 3 off a third place finish in a Grade 1 event last time out;  and finally he sports five triple digit speed figures on his resume.  All of this would seem to make him a legitimate favorite.  But before you mortgage the farm, consider these facts.....this time last year on Florida Derby Day he was coming in her off a third place finish, beaten a length, in a Grade 1 and he finished 8th beaten nearly a dozen lengths; he's not won a race since taking an allowance race in July 2015!  For what ever reason this winter Javier Castellano has NOT ridden well consistently and has had significantly fewer mounts for Pletcher.  BUT, it's noteworthy that he's only 1-for-8 at all other distances on the grass, but a sharp 3-for-6 at this one mile distance on the grass.

My Point Exactly (6/1) You'd have to imagine if you were the owners of this five-year-old you'd look at this rich race, a graded stakes, with a short field without a superstar and say, "Why not?"  You've got a "hot horse" who's won two in a row and who obviously loves this course (4/2-0-1).  But the fact is that his back-to-back wins have come in the claiming ranks on the front end.  If you scan through his past performances his last five stakes races have been losses, and those were all state-bred listed events and this is an open graded stakes.  The barn is winning at a big 38% for 2017 and gets a top rider in Paco Lopez.  Can take them a long way but in the end he'll probably struggle to last all the way to the wire.  A live longshot that WILL give you a run for your money.

Market Outlook (9/2) Last summer you could have claimed this one for a mere $16K out of an Indiana Grande race - trust me, the competition at Indiana in the summer is NOTHING like the competition at Gulfstream in the winter....much less a claiming event compared to a Grade 3.  Probably the one angle that goes the farthest in evaluating this guy's chances is this.....On February 15th he lined up in a $35K claiming event here with today's rival My Point Exactly.  While that guy went wire to wire, Market Outlook was 8th beaten eleven lengths.  Hard to envision him making up nearly a dozen lengths on a runner who's an outsider in here today to win his first graded event.

Siding Spring (10/1) This lightly raced four-year-old is a very intriguing runner, especially if sent off at anywhere near the price listed on the morning line provided by the Daily Racing Form.  He began his career with two turf starts - a decisive win at this distance over the unique Kentucky Downs course (has an uphill stretch run), then ran a sharp third in the Grade 3 Bourbon.  That impressed his connections enough to catch Derby fever and he moved to the main track to run in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, and Grade 2 Rebel.  When he returned to the turf this January he got just his second win.  Stepped up to second level allowance off that and was dismissed at more than 20/1 when he scored again.  That 95 Beyer fits very well with these and he might be finally realizing just how much talent he truly has.  Should sit a good tracking trip for Julian Leparoux today.  Interesting.......

Delta Prince (6/1) One of the best things going for this colt is that he appears to have enormous potential.  Wouldn't be at all surprised if this fall you look back and say, "I saw him in his first graded stakes back at Gulfstream" as he starts to blossom into a major player in the older turf handicap division.  He's trained by Jimmy Jerkens who's had an outstanding meeting, winning 28% of the time.  His horses have run lights out which leads me to believe this one will as well.  One of the most exciting young riders in the country has ridden quite a lot here, Jose Ortiz and while the sample is small, Ortiz has won at a big 63% rate.  After sharp efforts on the main track Delta Prince produced his first win and a big improvement on the Beyer scale when first moved to the turf at this distance, in December HERE.  Came back to face entry level allowance runners six weeks ago and won again.  For what it's worth Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was aboard both Our Way and Delta Prince in their last out victory and he shows up on Our Way.